Ilkka Kalliala

Risk of cervical and other cancers after treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: retrospective cohort study

Abstract Objective To study the long term risk of cervical and other cancers after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland. Participants 7564 women treated for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia during 1974 and 2001 and followed up through the Finnish cancer registry until 2003. Main outcome measures Standardised incidence ratio for cervical cancer and other cancers. Results During follow-up 22 cases of invasive cervical cancer occurred in women treated for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (standardised incidence ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.7 to 4.2). The highest risk was during the second decade (10 cases observed: 3.1, 1.5 to 5.7). The standardised incidence ratio for cervical intraepithelial cancer type 1 was 3.1 (1.4 to 6.2) and for type 2 was 3.7 (0.9 to 10.7). Conclusions The risk of cervical cancer in the first 20 years after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia is higher than in the average population. The risk of smoking related cancers is also increased.

Adiposity and cancer at major anatomical sites: umbrella review of the literature

Objective To evaluate the strength and validity of the evidence for the association between adiposity and risk of developing or dying from cancer. Design Umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Data sources PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and manual screening of retrieved references. Eligibility criteria Systematic reviews or meta-analyses of observational studies that evaluated the association between indices of adiposity and risk of developing or dying from cancer. Data synthesis Primary analysis focused on cohort studies exploring associations for continuous measures of adiposity. The evidence was graded into strong, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak after applying criteria that included the statistical significance of the random effects summary estimate and of the largest study in a meta-analysis, the number of cancer cases, heterogeneity between studies, 95% prediction intervals, small study effects, excess significance bias, and sensitivity analysis with credibility ceilings. Results 204 meta-analyses investigated associations between seven indices of adiposity and developing or dying from 36 primary cancers and their subtypes. Of the 95 meta-analyses that included cohort studies and used a continuous scale to measure adiposity, only 12 (13%) associations for nine cancers were supported by strong evidence. An increase in body mass index was associated with a higher risk of developing oesophageal adenocarcinoma; colon and rectal cancer in men; biliary tract system and pancreatic cancer; endometrial cancer in premenopausal women; kidney cancer; and multiple myeloma. Weight gain and waist to hip circumference ratio were associated with higher risks of postmenopausal breast cancer in women who have never used hormone replacement therapy and endometrial cancer, respectively. The increase in the risk of developing cancer for every 5 kg/m2 increase in body mass index ranged from 9% (relative risk 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.13) for rectal cancer among men to 56% (1.56, 1.34 to 1.81) for biliary tract system cancer. The risk of postmenopausal breast cancer among women who have never used HRT increased by 11% for each 5 kg of weight gain in adulthood (1.11, 1.09 to 1.13), and the risk of endometrial cancer increased by 21% for each 0.1 increase in waist to hip ratio (1.21, 1.13 to 1.29). Five additional associations were supported by strong evidence when categorical measures of adiposity were included: weight gain with colorectal cancer; body mass index with gallbladder, gastric cardia, and ovarian cancer; and multiple myeloma mortality. Conclusions Although the association of adiposity with cancer risk has been extensively studied, associations for only 11 cancers (oesophageal adenocarcinoma, multiple myeloma, and cancers of the gastric cardia, colon, rectum, biliary tract system, pancreas, breast, endometrium, ovary, and kidney) were supported by strong evidence. Other associations could be genuine, but substantial uncertainty remains. Obesity is becoming one of the biggest problems in public health; evidence on the strength of the associated risks may allow finer selection of those at higher risk of cancer, who could be targeted for personalised prevention strategies.

Adverse obstetric outcomes after local treatment for cervical preinvasive and early invasive disease according to cone depth: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective To assess the effect of treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) on obstetric outcomes and to correlate this with cone depth and comparison group used. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources CENTRAL, Medline, Embase from 1948 to April 2016 were searched for studies assessing obstetric outcomes in women with or without previous local cervical treatment. Data extraction and synthesis Independent reviewers extracted the data and performed quality assessment using the Newcastle-Ottawa criteria. Studies were classified according to method and obstetric endpoint. Pooled risk ratios were calculated with a random effect model and inverse variance. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed with I2 statistics. Main outcome measures Obstetric outcomes comprised preterm birth (including spontaneous and threatened), premature rupture of the membranes, chorioamnionitis, mode of delivery, length of labour, induction of delivery, oxytocin use, haemorrhage, analgesia, cervical cerclage, and cervical stenosis. Neonatal outcomes comprised low birth weight, admission to neonatal intensive care, stillbirth, APGAR scores, and perinatal mortality. Results 71 studies were included (6 338 982 participants: 65 082 treated/6 292 563 untreated). Treatment significantly increased the risk of overall (<37 weeks; 10.7% v 5.4%; relative risk 1.78, 95% confidence interval 1.60 to 1.98), severe (<32-34 weeks; 3.5% v 1.4%; 2.40, 1.92 to 2.99), and extreme (<28-30 weeks; 1.0% v 0.3%; 2.54, 1.77 to 3.63) preterm birth. Techniques removing or ablating more tissue were associated with worse outcomes. Relative risks for delivery at <37 weeks were 2.70 (2.14 to 3.40) for cold knife conisation, 2.11 (1.26 to 3.54) for laser conisation, 2.02 (1.60 to 2.55) for excision not otherwise specified, 1.56 (1.36 to 1.79) for large loop excision of the transformation zone, and 1.46 (1.27 to 1.66) for ablation not otherwise specified. Compared with no treatment, the risk of preterm birth was higher in women who had undergone more than one treatment (13.2% v 4.1%; 3.78, 2.65 to 5.39) and with increasing cone depth (≤10-12 mm; 7.1% v 3.4%; 1.54, 1.09 to 2.18; ≥10-12 mm: 9.8% v 3.4%, 1.93, 1.62 to 2.31; ≥15-17 mm: 10.1% v 3.4%; 2.77, 1.95 to 3.93; ≥20 mm: 10.2% v 3.4%; 4.91, 2.06 to 11.68). The choice of comparison group affected the magnitude of effect. This was higher for external comparators, followed by internal comparators, and ultimately women with disease who did not undergo treatment. In women with untreated CIN and in pregnancies before treatment, the risk of preterm birth was higher than the risk in the general population (5.9% v 5.6%; 1.24, 1.14 to 1.35). Spontaneous preterm birth, premature rupture of the membranes, chorioamnionitis, low birth weight, admission to neonatal intensive care, and perinatal mortality were also significantly increased after treatment. Conclusions Women with CIN have a higher baseline risk for prematurity. Excisional and ablative treatment further increases that risk. The frequency and severity of adverse sequelae increases with increasing cone depth and is higher for excision than for ablation.

Mortality in a long-term follow-up after treatment of CIN.

After treatment of the cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) cervical cancer incidence remains elevated at least for 20 years. Whether the overall or cervical cancer mortality after treatment of CIN is elevated is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the long‐term survival and cause‐specific mortality among women treated for CIN. The study population consisted of 7,104 women treated for CIN between 1974 and 2001 and 35,437 individually matched controls. The follow‐up of mortality was based on nationwide registries and closed at death, emigration or December 31, 2005. The possible differences in mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazard model. With follow‐up time of approximately 630,000 woman‐years, overall 2,781 deaths were observed, 530 among women treated for CIN and 2,251 among reference population (HR 1.1, 95% CI 1.0–1.3). Mortality from any cancer (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.7), lung cancer (HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.8–4.1) and HPV‐related anogenital cancer (HR 3.1, 95% CI 1.1–8.6) was higher among CIN patients, but mortality from cervical cancer was not (HR 1.0, 95% CI 0.3–4.0). Elevated cervical cancer incidence after treatment of CIN, documented earlier, did not predict elevation in cervical cancer mortality. This suggests high effectiveness of CIN management. Most of the excess mortality observed among CIN patients was due to increased risk of other cancers. These long‐term mortality patterns should be considered when planning and evaluating the management of CIN lesions and related cervical or other cancer prevention activity.

Obesity and gynaecological and obstetric conditions: umbrella review of the literature.

Objective To study the strength and validity of associations between adiposity and risk of any type of obstetric or gynaecological conditions. Design An umbrella review of meta-analyses. Data sources PubMed, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, manual screening of references for systematic reviews or meta-analyses of observational and interventional studies evaluating the association between adiposity and risk of any obstetrical or gynaecological outcome. Main outcomes Meta-analyses of cohort studies on associations between indices of adiposity and obstetric and gynaecological outcomes. Data synthesis Evidence from observational studies was graded into strong, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak based on the significance of the random effects summary estimate and the largest study in the included meta-analysis, the number of cases, heterogeneity between studies, 95% prediction intervals, small study effects, excess significance bias, and sensitivity analysis with credibility ceilings. Interventional meta-analyses were assessed separately. Results 156 meta-analyses of observational studies were included, investigating associations between adiposity and risk of 84 obstetric or gynaecological outcomes. Of the 144 meta-analyses that included cohort studies, only 11 (8%) had strong evidence for eight outcomes: adiposity was associated with a higher risk of endometrial cancer, ovarian cancer, antenatal depression, total and emergency caesarean section, pre-eclampsia, fetal macrosomia, and low Apgar score. The summary effect estimates ranged from 1.21 (95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.29) for an association between a 0.1 unit increase in waist to hip ratio and risk endometrial cancer up to 4.14 (3.61 to 4.75) for risk of pre-eclampsia for BMI >35 compared with <25. Only three out of these eight outcomes were also assessed in meta-analyses of trials evaluating weight loss interventions. These interventions significantly reduced the risk of caesarean section and pre-eclampsia, whereas there was no evidence of association with fetal macrosomia. Conclusions Although the associations between adiposity and obstetric and gynaecological outcomes have been extensively studied, only a minority were considered strong and without hints of bias.

Clinical course of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 under active surveillance: systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Objective To estimate the regression, persistence, and progression of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) lesions managed conservatively as well as compliance with follow-up protocols. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) from 1 January 1973 to 20 August 2016. Eligibility criteria Studies reporting on outcomes of histologically confirmed CIN2 in non-pregnant women, managed conservatively for three or more months. Data synthesis Two reviewers extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Random effects model was used to calculate pooled proportions for each outcome, and heterogeneity was assessed using I2 statistics. Main outcome measures Rates of regression, persistence, or progression of CIN2 and default rates at different follow-up time points (3, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 60 months). Results 36 studies that included 3160 women were identified (seven randomised trials, 16 prospective cohorts, and 13 retrospective cohorts; 50% of the studies were at low risk of bias). At 24 months, the pooled rates were 50% (11 studies, 819/1470 women, 95% confidence interval 43% to 57%; I2=77%) for regression, 32% (eight studies, 334/1257 women, 23% to 42%; I2=82%) for persistence, and 18% (nine studies, 282/1445 women, 11% to 27%; I2=90%) for progression. In a subgroup analysis including 1069 women aged less than 30 years, the rates were 60% (four studies, 638/1069 women, 57% to 63%; I2=0%), 23% (two studies, 226/938 women, 20% to 26%; I2=97%), and 11% (three studies, 163/1033 women, 5% to 19%; I2=67%), respectively. The rate of non-compliance (at six to 24 months of follow-up) in prospective studies was around 10%. Conclusions Most CIN2 lesions, particularly in young women (<30 years), regress spontaneously. Active surveillance, rather than immediate intervention, is therefore justified, especially among young women who are likely to adhere to monitoring. Systematic review registration PROSPERO 2014: CRD42014014406.

Comparative analysis of vaginal microbiota sampling using 16S rRNA gene analysis

Background Molecular methods such as next-generation sequencing are actively being employed to characterize the vaginal microbiota in health and disease. Previous studies have focused on characterizing the biological variation in the microbiota, and less is known about how factors related to sampling contribute to the results. Our aim was to investigate the impact of a sampling device and anatomical sampling site on the quantitative and qualitative outcomes relevant for vaginal microbiota research. We sampled 10 Finnish women representing diverse clinical characteristics with flocked swabs, the Evalyn® self-sampling device, sterile plastic spatulas and a cervical brush that were used to collect samples from fornix, vaginal wall and cervix. Samples were compared on DNA and protein yield, bacterial load, and microbiota diversity and species composition based on Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. We quantified the relative contributions of sampling variables versus intrinsic variables in the overall microbiota variation, and evaluated the microbiota profiles using several commonly employed metrics such as alpha and beta diversity as well as abundance of major bacterial genera and species. Results The total DNA yield was strongly dependent on the sampling device and to a lesser extent on the anatomical site of sampling. The sampling strategy did not affect the protein yield or the bacterial load. All tested sampling methods produced highly comparable microbiota profiles based on MiSeq sequencing. The sampling method explained only 2% (p-value = 0.89) of the overall microbiota variation, markedly surpassed by intrinsic factors such as clinical status (microscopy for bacterial vaginosis 53%, p = 0.0001), bleeding (19%, p = 0.0001), and the variation between subjects (11%, p-value 0.0001). Conclusions The results indicate that different sampling strategies yield comparable vaginal microbiota composition and diversity. Hence, past and future vaginal microbiota studies employing different sampling strategies should be comparable in the absence of other technical confounders. The Evalyn® self-sampling device performed equally well compared to samples taken by a clinician, and hence offers a good-quality microbiota sample without the need for a gynecological examination. The amount of collected sample as well as the DNA and protein yield varied across the sampling techniques, which may have practical implications for study design.

Performance of mRNA- and DNA-based high-risk human papillomavirus assays in detection of high-grade cervical lesions.

The aim was to assess the performance of two commercial assays for the detection of high‐risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV): Aptima HPV Assay (Hologic, Inc., Marlborough, MA, USA) which detects mRNA of 14 different hrHPV types, and Hybrid Capture 2 HPV DNA test (HC2; Qiagen, Gaithersburg, MD, USA), which detects the DNA of 13 different hrHPV types. Test performance was compared in the settings of a standard colposcopy clinic, among the regular patient flow.

Immediate referral to colposcopy versus cytological surveillance for low-grade cervical cytological abnormalities in the absence of HPV test: A systematic review and a meta-analysis of the literature

We performed a systematic review and meta‐analysis to explore the optimum management strategy for women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS/borderline) or low‐grade squamous intra‐epithelial lesions (LSIL/mild dyskaryosis) cytological abnormalities at primary screening in the absence of HPV DNA test. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL and included randomised controlled trials comparing immediate colposcopy to cytological surveillance in women with ASCUS/LSIL. The outcomes of interest were occurrence of different histological grades of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and default rates during follow‐up. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a random‐effect model and with inverse variance weighting. Interstudy heterogeneity was assessed using I2 statistics. Six RCTs were included. Immediate colposcopy significantly increased detection of unimportant abnormalities as opposed to repeat cytology (koilocytosis: 32 vs. 21%, RR: 1.49, 95% CI = 1.17–1.90); CIN1: 21 vs. 8%, RR: 2.58, 95% CI = 1.69–3.94). Although immediate colposcopy detected CIN2, CIN2+, and CIN3+ earlier than cytology, the differences were no longer observed at 24 months (CIN3+: 10.3 vs.11.9%, RR: 1.02, 95% CI = 0.53–1.97), with significant interstudy heterogeneity (p < 0.001, I2 = 93%). Default risk was significantly higher for repeat cytology (6 months: 6.3 vs. 13.3%, RR: 3.85, 95% CI = 1.27–11.63; 12 months: 6.3 vs. 14.8%, RR: 6.39, 95% CI = 1.24–32.95; 24 months: 0.9 vs. 16.1%, RR: 19.1, 95% CI = 9.02–40.4). Detection of CIN2+ for cytological surveillance over two years is similar to that of immediate colposcopy, although patients may default. Colposcopy may be first choice when good compliance is not assured, but may increase detection of insignificant lesions. This emphasizes the need for a reflex triage test to distinguish women who need diagnostic work‐up from those who can return to routine recall.

Randomised trial on treatment of vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia – imiquimod, laser vaporisation, and expectant management

Vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (VAIN) is associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The most common treatment modality is laser vaporisation, but recurrences are common. Imiquimod is an immune response modulator which is used for the treatment of external condylomas and other HPV‐related genital neoplasias. The aim of the study was to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of vaginally administered imiquimod in comparison with laser vaporisation and expectant management of high‐grade VAIN. This proof of principle pilot study was a prospective 16‐week randomised trial. We enrolled 30 patients with histologically confirmed VAIN 2 or 3 into three study arms: vaginally administered imiquimod, laser vaporisation and expectant management. Follow‐up colposcopy visits included high‐risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing, cytology and punch biopsies. At baseline 77% (n = 20/26) of the patients were hrHPV positive. HPV clearance was significantly higher in the imiquimod arm (63%, n = 5/8) than in the laser arm (11%, n = 1/9) (p = 0.05) or in the expectant management arm (17%, n = 1/6) (p = 0.138). At baseline 25 patients (83%) had VAIN 2 and five (17%) had VAIN 3. None of the lesions progressed during the follow‐up. Histological regression (≤VAIN 1) was observed in 80% (n = 8/10) of patients in the imiquimod arm, 100% (n = 10/10) of the laser arm (p = 0.474) and 67% (n = 6/9) of the expectant management arm (p = 0.628). Vaginal imiquimod appears to be as effective as laser treatment in high‐grade VAIN.