Ilona M. McNeill

Expecting the unexpected: predicting physiological and psychological wildfire preparedness from perceived risk, responsibility, and obstacles

People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with peoples intentions to prepare for a natural hazard: Perceived risk (i.e., perceived threat likelihood and severity) and perceived protection responsibility. We expanded this research by differentiating the influence of these factors on different types of wildfire preparedness (e.g., preparations for evacuation vs. for defending the house) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire. A survey completed by 1,003 residents of wildfire-prone areas in Perth, Australia, revealed that perceived risk (especially risk severity) and perceived protection responsibility were both positively associated with all types of preparedness, but the latter did not significantly predict preparedness after controlling for other predictors and demographics. Also, the two new expectancy-based factors were significantly associated with all types of preparedness, and remained significant predictors of some types of preparedness after controlling for other predictors and demographics: the expectation of being able to rely on an official fire warning and expecting to lose electricity both still predicted less preparedness around house resilience, and expecting to lose water still predicted increased planning preparedness. We discuss public policy implications that follow from this research.

Preparing ... for what? Developing multi-dimensional measures of community wildfire preparedness for researchers, practitioners and households

In an effort to reduce wildfire risk to community members, researchers and practitioners have sought to identify the factors that are most effective in motivating community members to engage in preparatory behaviours. Quantitative research in this area has been hampered, however, by a lack of consistency in, and validation of household wildfire preparedness assessments. Consequences have included a difficulty in comparing results across quantitative studies, a poor collective understanding of how existing preparedness assessments were developed and an inability to ascertain how specific preparedness actions are tied to householders’ responses to wildfire. We propose to resolve these issues by (1) presenting a definition of wildfire preparedness for adoption as the standard in quantitative studies, (2) developing a typology of wildfire preparedness that distinguishes between household wildfire goals (i.e. safe evacuation, effective active defence and improving the fire resistance of a property in the absence of an active defender), (3) constructing two new standardised measures of preparedness and (4) undertaking a community survey to investigate the validity of the measures. The development of the new measures will facilitate the standardisation of future research into wildfire preparedness, while differentiating between types of preparedness, and is expected to yield practical benefits.

Predicting delay in residents’ decisions on defending v. evacuating through antecedents of decision avoidance

In the event of a wildfire, Australian residents of wildfire-prone areas have a choice to defend their home or evacuate early. However, rather than deciding on and preparing for one of these fire-responses ahead of time, most residents delay deciding on defending v. evacuating (e.g. they wait and see instead). Recent research has shown that delaying this decision is associated with reduced levels of preparedness for both responses and on the day of a fire, an increased risk to life and property. The current study empirically examined what predicts this decision delay regarding one’s fire-response by measuring two personality traits and several decision-related factors. A longitudinal survey study of residents of multiple wildfire-prone areas in Western Australia showed that the strongest predictor of delaying their decision to defend v. evacuate was a lack of difference in perceived values of defending v. evacuating. These findings have important implications for the design of interventions to reduce the risks associated with such delay. For one, agencies could utilise residents’ value base to reduce decision delay. Alternatively, they could focus on the formation of proper contingency plans and stress the necessity to prepare well for both defending and evacuating.

Towards personalised public warnings: harnessing technological advancements to promote better individual decision-making in the face of disasters

ABSTRACT Official warnings are essential for informing the public of impending hazards and promoting their responses before a disaster occurs. However, research has identified that traditional public warnings, such as generic text messages based on large geographic regions, often fail to promote appropriate responses by at-risk residents. Recently, there has been an increased focus on using map-based approaches for communicating public warnings. However, a systematic framework to guide the design of effective mapping instruments for this purpose is lacking. The researchers sought to fill this gap by merging the scholarly understanding of factors influencing warning effectiveness with the contemporary spatial capacities of the emergency management sector. The current paper presents the conceptual framework resulting from this merger, which can be used to direct the design and implementation of map-based warnings that offer personalised risk visualisation and provide personalised decision support to motivate appropriate responses. An example is then provided to illustrate how this framework can be applied for the development of personalised bushfire warnings in an Australian context. Underpinned by webGIS technologies, the proposed framework shows a potentially ground-breaking approach to improve public warning communication by fostering more efficient and effective risk personalisation and response related decision-making by individuals.

Defining Sufficient Household Preparedness for Active Wildfire Defense: Toward an Australian Baseline

AbstractThis study begins to offer a tangible definition and operationalization of the required level of preparedness for safely staying and defending a property by householders in Australian wildfires. A consultative workshop was conducted with a taskforce of national experts from Australia seeking to obtain consensus on the critical nature of a wide-ranging list of preparatory actions. An innovative methodology was employed to account for the potential relationship between the desired levels of preparedness and Fire Danger Ratings (FDRs), the indicator of fire weather intensity, as was long suggested by Australian fire agencies. The resultant model includes a checklist of critical preparatory actions for each FDR that portrays a minimum and essential preparatory condition to guide an individual’s decision to stay and defend under the given fire condition. While the definition presented here does not provide a unique solution to ensure the safety of active defense under all household scenarios, it delive...

Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety:: Two Cognitive Pathways to Task Avoidance

Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single study to date has examined the influence of these traits and processes together. Examining them simultaneously is necessary to gain an integrated understanding of their relationship with risk-mitigating behaviors. We therefore examined these traits and mediators in relation to wildfire preparedness in a two-wave field study among residents of wildfire-prone areas in Western Australia (total N = 223). Structural equation modeling results showed that indecisiveness uniquely predicted preparedness, with higher indecisiveness predicting lower preparedness. This relationship was fully mediated by perceived control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction. This shows how the lack of performing risk-mitigating behaviors can result from distinct cognitive processes that are linked to distinct personality traits. It also highlights how simultaneous examination of multiple pathways to behavior creates a fuller understanding of its antecedents.

The smoke is rising but where is the fire? Exploring effective online map design for wildfire warnings

The current study sought to offer guidance for developing effective web-based mapping tools for wildfire warnings by identifying (1) the important content for facilitating individuals’ decision-making, and (2) the optimal interface design for ensuring usability and ease of information access. A map-based warning tool was prototyped in the Australian context, followed by a usability and effectiveness evaluation through individual interviews and verbal protocol analysis to assess participants’ interaction with the mapping interface and information in response to the simulated warning scenario. The results demonstrated variations in participants’ approaches to wildfire warning response, revealing varied information needs. Specifically, most participants relied on their own assessment of the prospective threat, requiring specific wildfire-related information before eliciting a response. In contrast, the decision of a minority of the participants was motivated by response guidance from agencies, and accurate wildfire information was less important for their response. Imperative information for both types of residents therefore needs to be highlighted in a map-based warning tool to cater to a wide audience. Furthermore, a number of heuristics were identified for designing effective interactive functions to facilitate the control of, and access to, the various maps and textual information presented on the map-based warning interface.

A value- and expectancy-based approach to understanding residents' intended response to a wildfire threat

To motivate residents to evacuate early in case of a wildfire threat, it is important to know what factors underlie their response-related decision-making. The current paper examines the role of the value and expectancy tied to potential outcomes of defending vs evacuating on awareness of a community fire threat. A scenario study among 339 Western Australians revealed that residents intending to leave immediately on awareness of a community fire threat differ from those not intending to leave immediately in both value and expectancy. For one, intended leavers were more likely than those intending to defend their property to have children. Also, the data showed a trend towards intended leavers being less likely to have livestock. Furthermore, intended leavers placed less importance on the survival of their property than those with other expressed intentions. They also reported lower expectancies regarding the likelihood of achieving positive outcomes by defending than those intending to defend or wait and see before deciding what to do. Finally, intended leavers perceived it more likely that they would avoid harm to their pets by evacuating than those intending to defend throughout or wait and see. These findings have important implications for strategies to influence residents’ response-related decision-making.

Increasing Pro-Environmental Behaviors by Increasing Self-Concordance: Testing an Intervention.

Globally, there is a clear need to change our behavior to mitigate climate change. Many people, however, will not find the need for mitigation important enough to make their behavior more environmentally sustainable. Three studies supported the hypothesis that it is possible to overcome this issue by connecting these behaviors to goals that are important to people, even if such goals are unrelated to climate change or the environment in general. Study 1 (N = 305 working adults) showed that stronger self-concordance of behavior related to energy sustainability was related to a greater chance of signing a petition for increasing renewable energy sources. Next, 2 experimental studies (Study 2: N = 412 working and nonworking adults, and Study 3: N = 300 working adults) showed that increasing self-concordance of environmentally sustainable behaviors by asking people to cognitively connect either sustainable energy use (Study 2) or commuting behaviors (Study 3) to their personal goals increased intentions to engage in these behaviors compared to a control condition (Study 2 and Study 3) and compared to persuasion attempts based on climate change mitigation (Study 3). These findings occurred even after controlling for political orientation and environmental concerns. This research has significant practical implications for workplaces, particularly for those in which employees or managers place a low priority on environmental and climate change considerations.

Not Just Talking to the “Greenies”: Testing an Intervention Based on Increasing Self-Concordance

There is a clear need to globally change our use of energy, both in the workplace and at home, in order to mitigate climate change. However, many people will not find the need for mitigation import...