Ilse Ruyssen

The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration†

In this study, we use cross-country bilateral data to quantify a two-step process of international migration and its aggregate determinants. We first analyze which country-specific factors affect the probability that individuals join the pool of potential (aspiring) migrants. Then, we consider the bilateral and destination country factors that affect the frequency at which potential migrants turn into actual migrants. Using information on potential migrants from World Gallup surveys and on actual migrants from national censuses for 138 origin countries and 30 major destinations between 2000 and 2010, we analyze economic, policy, cultural, and network determinants of each step. We find that the size of the network of previous migrants and the average income per person at destination are crucial determinants of the size of the pool of potential migrants. Economic growth in the destination country, on the other hand, is the main economic generator of migration opportunities for a given pool of potential migrants. We also find that college-educated exhibit greater actual emigration rates mainly because of better chances in realizing their immigration potentials, rather than because of higher willingness to migrate.

Determinants of Intraregional Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa 1980-2000

Abstract Despite great accomplishments in the migration literature, the determinants of South-South migration remain poorly understood. In an attempt to fill this gap, this paper formulates and tests an empirical model for intraregional migration in sub-Saharan Africa within an extended human capital framework, taking into account spatial interaction. Using bilateral panel data between 1980 and 2000, we find that intraregional migration on the subcontinent is predominantly driven by economic opportunities and sociopolitics in the host country, facilitated by geographical proximity. The role played by network effects and environmental conditions is also apparent. Finally, origin and destination spatial dependence should definitely not be ignored.

International migration : pacifier or trigger for military conflicts?

Abstract Whereas the impact of trade relations on conflict has been studied extensively, this is not the case for the impact of international migration. The latter might influence the size of expected costs and benefits, and hence the likelihood of military conflict between countries. In this paper, we discuss the channels through which bilateral migration can affect the prevalence of interstate military conflict. We then estimate migration’s impact on conflict using bilateral panel data between 1960–2000. We find evidence of a positive and robust impact of South-North and South-South migration on the occurrence of conflict. These effects are even larger when we control for potential endogeneity using a GMM approach.