Iman van Lelyveld

Internal capital markets and lending by multinational bank subsidiaries

We use new panel data on the intra-group ownership structure and the balance sheets of 45 of the largest multinational bank holdings to analyze what determines the credit growth of their subsidiaries. We find evidence for the existence of internal capital markets through which multinational banks manage the credit growth of their subsidiaries. Multinational bank subsidiaries with financially strong parent banks are able to expand their lending faster. As a result of parental support, foreign bank subsidiaries also do not need to rein in their credit supply during a financial crisis, while domestic banks need to do so.

Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector

We investigate interlinkages and contagion risks in the Dutch interbank market. Based on several data sources, including the answers of banks to a questionnaire, we estimate the exposures in the interbank market at bank level. Next, we perform a scenario analysis to measure contagion risks. We find that the bankruptcy of one of the large banks will put a considerable burden on the other banks, but will not lead to a complete collapse of the interbank market. The contagion effects of the failure of a smaller bank are limited. The exposures to foreign counterparties are large and warrant further research. An important contribution of this paper is that we show, using survey data, that the entropy estimation using large exposures data as applied in many previous papers gives an adequate approximation of the actual linkages between banks. Hence, this methodology does not seem to introduce a bias.

Economic versus regulatory capital for financial conglomerates

This book charts the consequences for banking supervision of two stylized developments that over the last decade have characterized the global financial landscape: the integration of cross-sector and cross-border financial services. Both developments inevitably call for a supervisory response and the authors discuss what form and direction this should take. They also address a number of other important subjects including the new Capital Accord (Basel 2), the convergence of supervisory practices, procyclicality, financial conglomerates, deposit insurance and a brief history of the interplay between banking supervision and bank behaviour.

Do Financial Conglomerates Create or Destroy Value? Evidence for the EU

There is an ongoing debate whether firm focus creates or destroys shareholder value. Earlier literature has shown significant diversification discounts: firms that engage in multiple activities are valued less. Various factors are important in the size of the discount, for example cross-subsidization and agency problems. The extant literature, however, generally focuses on non-financial firms or traditional banking (cf (Laeven and Levine, 2007) and (Schmid and Walter, 2006)). Our paper focuses specifically on the valuation of bank-insurance conglomerates. We find no universal diversification discount but significant variability. Size, complexity and risk seem to be important determinants.

Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for the reconstruction of bipartite financial networks

Reconstructing patterns of interconnections from partial information is one of the most important issues in the statistical physics of complex networks. A paramount example is provided by financial networks. In fact, the spreading and amplification of financial distress in capital markets are strongly affected by the interconnections among financial institutions. Yet, while the aggregate balance sheets of institutions are publicly disclosed, information on single positions is mostly confidential and, as such, unavailable. Standard approaches to reconstruct the network of financial interconnection produce unrealistically dense topologies, leading to a biased estimation of systemic risk. Moreover, reconstruction techniques are generally designed for monopartite networks of bilateral exposures between financial institutions, thus failing in reproducing bipartite networks of security holdings (e.g., investment portfolios). Here we propose a reconstruction method based on constrained entropy maximization, tailored for bipartite financial networks. Such a procedure enhances the traditional capital-asset pricing model (CAPM) and allows us to reproduce the correct topology of the network. We test this enhanced CAPM (ECAPM) method on a dataset, collected by the European Central Bank, of detailed security holdings of European institutional sectors over a period of six years (2009-2015). Our approach outperforms the traditional CAPM and the recently proposed maximum-entropy CAPM both in reproducing the network topology and in estimating systemic risk due to fire sales spillovers. In general, ECAPM can be applied to the whole class of weighted bipartite networks described by the fitness model.

Dynamic visualization of large transaction networks: the daily Dutch overnight money market

This paper shows how large data sets can be visualized in a dynamic way to support exploratory research, highlight econometric results or provide early warning information. The case studies included in this paper case are based on the payments and unsecured money market transaction data of the Dutch part of the Eurosystems large value payment system, TARGET2. We show how animation facilitates analysis at three different levels. First, animation shows how the market macrostructure develops. Second, it enables individual banks that are of interest to be followed. Finally, it facilitates a comparison of the same market at different moments in time and of different markets (such as countries) at the same moment in time.

Stress Testing Linkages between Banks in the Netherlands

Assessing the stability of the financial sector is becoming more common in many countries. This paper presents two useful approaches, applied to the Netherlands. First we discuss the results of a contagion analysis of the Dutch interbank market. We use various ways to measure linkages between banks and find that the interbank market is fairly robust. We then turn to a network analysis of payment flows between Dutch banks. This analysis provides us with a better understanding of the network structure in this type of market. We specifically look at the effect of the recent turmoil on the payment network and find no significant changes.

Herd Behaviour and Trading Among Dutch Pension Funds

In this paper we provide evidence that repudiates the popular belief that Dutch pension funds are long-term passive institutional traders; rather like active traders they trade about eight and half percent of their portfolio on monthly basis. Using a unique data sample, our results affirm significant feedback trading strategies, both momentum and contrarian, and robust herding behaviour in investments of Dutch PFs. Our findings contradict with some previous evidence and advance the suggestions that both the institutional lagged demand for a stock and performance triggers contrarian investments in Dutch PFs; and their trading behaviour substantially varies across asset classes. Furthermore, the recent financial turmoil has a positive impact on both turnover and herding while it negatively affects the feedback trading.

Dynamic visualization of large financial networks

This paper shows how large data sets can be visualized in a dynamic way to support data exploration, highlight econometric results or provide early warning information. We use payments and unsecured money market transaction data from the Dutch part of the Eurosystems large value payment system, TARGET2, to showcase how video animations facilitate analysis at three different levels. First, animation shows how the market macrostructure develops. Second, it enables us to follow individual banks that are of interest. Finally, it facilitates a comparison of the same market at different times, and of different markets (such as countries) at the same time.