Imanol Madariaga

Long-term changes of ozone and traffic in Bilbao

It is well known that ozone levels are the result of the interaction among emissions of VOCs and NOx, on the one hand, and meteorological effects on the other hand. In this work, using the low-pass KZ filter developed by Kolmogorov and Zurbenko, the original time series consisting of the logarithm of daily maximum ozone concentrations measured at three locations in the Bilbao area, are splitted into long-term, seasonal and short-term effects. Next, meteorological effects are moderated or removed from filtered ozone series using multiple linear regression. The long-term evolution of ozone forming capability due to changes in precursor emissions can be obtained applying the KZ filter to the residuals of this regression. The present work is an application of the widely used and well known KZ filter technique and focuses on analyzing the joint evolution of the long-term components of ozone time series on the one hand, and mean traffic in the Bilbao area (Spain) on the other hand during years 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996. To that end, regression analysis between the long-term fractions of ozone and traffic has been performed. The results show that long-term changes of the mean traffic flow are responsible for the long-term changes in ozone forming capability due to changes in precursor emissions of the area. Long-term trend of daily mean traffic can explain between 81% and 99.6% of the total variance of long-term ozone changes at the three locations of Bilbao studied.