Iñaki Arto

Drivers of the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 8.9 Gigatons CO2 equivalent (Gt) in the period 1995-2008. A phenomenon that has received due attention is the upsurge of emission transfers via international trade. A question that has remained unanswered is whether trade changes have affected global emissions. For each of five factors (one of which is trade changes) in 40 countries we quantify its contribution to the growth in global emissions. We find that the changes in the levels of consumption per capita have led to an enormous growth in emissions (+14.0 Gt). This effect was partly offset by the changes in technology (-8.4 Gt). Smaller effects are found for population growth (+4.2 Gt) and changes in the composition of the consumption (-1.5 Gt). Changes in the trade structure had a very moderate effect on global emissions (+0.6 Gt). Looking at the geographical distribution, changes in the emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China) have caused 44% of emission growth whereas the increase in their national emissions accounted for 59% of emission growth. This means that 15% (1.4 Gt) of all extra GHG emissions between 1995 and 2008 have been emitted in emerging countries but were caused by changes in other countries.

Comparing The Gtap-Mrio And Wiod Databases For Carbon Footprint Analysis

We explore two different worldwide multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases (Global Trade Analysis Project-MRIO and World Input–Output Database) for the calculation of the global carbon footprint (CF) of nations. We start our analysis with a description of the main characteristics of the databases and then make a comparison between their main components. Then, we calculate the CF with both databases and identify (from a global perspective) the most relevant factors underlying their differences using structural decomposition analysis. On average, certain parts of both databases (e.g. intermediate uses and final demand) can be said to be similar for around 75% to 80%, with only a few elements in each part mainly driving the major differences. The divergences in the datasets of four countries explain almost 50% of the differences in the CF (the USA, China, Russia and India). Industry-wise, 50% of the differences can be explained by the divergences in electricity, refining and inland transport industries.

Measuring emissions avoided by international trade: Accounting for price differences

Net Emissions Avoided by trade (NEA) are the difference between the pollution that would have been produced in a country if it had not exported any products and all the imports required to satisfy its domestic demand had been produced internally, and its actual emissions. The Domestic Technology Assumption (DTA) applied to an Input–Output model is the appropriate method to estimate the NEA. The usual implementation of the DTA involves that the country analyzed should produce a quantity of products equivalent to the monetary value of the imports required to satisfy its final demand (i.e. ‘monetary DTA’). However, due to price differences, the same physical quantity of goods in different countries could have a different monetary value and the estimation of the NEA would be biased. We show that a ‘physical DTA’, focused on the pollution to produce domestically the imports measured in physical units, would be a better approach. We have applied both methodologies to analyze greenhouse gas emissions in Spain 1995–2007. Both methodologies show that Spain is avoiding emissions through trade. However, the NEA increases up to three times when applying the ‘physical DTA’, showing that results from the ‘monetary DTA’ are biased by price differences.

Likelihood of climate change pathways under uncertainty on fossil fuel resource availability

Uncertainties concerning fossil fuel resource availability have traditionally been deemphasized in climate change research as global baseline emission scenarios (i.e., scenarios that do not consider additional climate policies) have been built on the assumption of abundant fossil fuel resources for the 21st century. However, current estimates are subject to critical uncertainties and an emerging body of literature is providing revised estimates. Here we consider the entire range of revised estimates, applying an integrated assessment model to perform a likelihood analysis of climate change pathways. Our results show that, by the end of the century, the two highest emission pathways from the IPCC, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP6 and RCP8.5, where the baseline scenarios currently lie, have probabilities of being surpassed of 42% and 12%, respectively. In terms of temperature change, the probability of exceeding the 2 °C level by 2100 remains very high (88%), confirming the need for urgent climate action. Coal resource uncertainty determines the uncertainty about the emission and radiative forcing pathways due to the poor quality of data. We also find that the depletion of fossil fuels is likely to occur during the second half of the century accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources in baseline scenarios. Accordingly, more investments may be required to enable the energy transition, while the additional mitigation measures would in turn necessitate a lower effort than currently estimated. Hence, the integrated analysis of resource availability and climate change is essential to obtain internally consistent climate pathways.

FIDELIO: A fully interregional dynamic econometric long-term input-output model for the EU

Policy simulations during the last decades have been heavily relying on standard static CGE models with a small number of industries. Recently DSGE models (usually termed as New Keynesian) have been developed that incorporate dynamic behavior and institutional constraints at the aggregate macroeconomic level. Only few examples of CGE models with high industry detail and dynamic behavioral rules can be found in the literature, for example the IGEM model by Jorgenson and his collaborators. We present FIDELIO as a model, oriented along the lines of IGEM, and also heavily relying on the ‘Jorgenson philosophy’ of calibrating the model with parameters taken from recent and relevant econometric work. The framework of FIDELIO is the set of supply-use tables at the level of 59 industries/commodities for the EU 27. These tables are made consistent with international trade flows, relying on the WIOD (www.wiod.org) database and thereby generating an inter-regional model set-up. The input-output structures are partly flexible (not Leontief type functions) by modeling factor demand and trade using flexible functional forms (Translog and AIDS). FIDELIO describes private consumption as a dynamic optimization process with durables, non-durables (‘buffer stock’ model) and special emphasis on energy and the energy efficiency of the stock of durables. The behavior of firms is described by a Translog model, where dynamics is introduced by adjustment of the ex post return on capital to the forward looking user cost relationship. This model differentiates K,L,E,Mm,Md inputs, therefore dealing explicitly in a flexible form with substitution between imported intermediates (Mm) and all other factors. That yields a different model of international trade compared to the standard CGE model, where imported commodities are only substituted against domestic commodities at all levels of demand. Environmental satellite accounts for energy and environment from the WIOD (www.wiod.org) database are consistently linked to the input-output structures. Factor supply is modeled by a segmented labor market (skills) with wage bargaining based on the wage curve model. Diverse policy analyses related to sustainable consumption and production in a broad sense.

Global Impacts of the Automotive Supply Chain Disruption Following the Japanese Earthquake of 2011

This paper provides an input–output method to estimate worldwide economic impacts generated by supply chain disruptions. The method is used to analyse global economic effects due to the disruptions in the automotive industry that followed the Japanese earthquake and the consequent tsunami and nuclear crisis of March 2011. By combining a mixed multi-regional input–output model, the World Input–Output Database and data at the factory level, the study quantifies the economic impacts of the disruptions broken down by country and industry. The results show that the global economic effect (in terms of value added) of this disruption amounted to US

The Single Market as an Engine for Employment through External Trade

139 billion. The most affected (groups of) countries were Japan (39%), the USA (25%), China (8%) and the European Union (7%). The most strongly affected industries were transport equipment (37%), other business activities (10%), basic and fabricated metals (8%), wholesale trade (7%) and financial intermediation (4%).

Applying the global RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach

This article quantifies for the first time the European employment effects of extra‐EU exports and the correct number of jobs generated through the intra‐EU trade (single market) associated with the production of such exports. The literature has neglected very often the latter effects mainly due to the lack of an appropriate methodology and data. The main results of the article show that, between 2000 and 2007, an increasing number of European jobs were dependent on extra‐EU exports and on the strengthening of the trade linkages across the internal market. During the period considered, the EU employment supported by extra‐EU exports grew from 22 to 25 million jobs, out of which 9 million jobs (in 2007) were due to spillover and feedback effects associated with the single market. Between 2000 and 2007 the EU also became a more vertically integrated economy, and reduced the labour intensity of the extra‐EU exports.

Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.

Industrial and terrestrial carbon leakage under climate policy fragmentation

BACKGROUND Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which the emissions abatement effort is shared between countries in accordance with three established equity criteria. METHODS Our study had three stages. First, we used an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the emission (greenhouse gases and air pollutants) pathways and abatement costs of a set of scenarios with varying temperature objectives (nationally determined contributions, 2°C, or 1·5°C) and approaches to the distribution of climate change methods (capability, constant emission ratios, and equal per capita). The resulting emissions pathways were transferred to an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to estimate the concentrations of particulate matter and ozone in the atmosphere and the resulting associated premature deaths and morbidity. We then applied a monetary value to these health impacts by use of a term called the value of statistical life and compared these values with those of the mitigation costs calculated from GCAM, both globally and regionally. Our analysis looked forward to 2050 in accordance with the socioeconomic narrative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2. FINDINGS The health co-benefits substantially outweighed the policy cost of achieving the target for all of the scenarios that we analysed. In some of the mitigation strategies, the median co-benefits were double the median costs at a global level. The ratio of health co-benefit to mitigation cost ranged from 1·4 to 2·45, depending on the scenario. At the regional level, the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions could be compensated with the health co-benefits alone for China and India, whereas the proportion the co-benefits covered varied but could be substantial in the European Union (7-84%) and USA (10-41%), respectively. Finally, we found that the extra effort of trying to pursue the 1·5°C target instead of the 2°C target would generate a substantial net benefit in India (US