Ines Wilms

Sparse Canonical Correlation Analysis from a Predictive Point of View

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) describes the associations between two sets of variables by maximizing the correlation between linear combinations of the variables in each dataset. However, in high-dimensional settings where the number of variables exceeds the sample size or when the variables are highly correlated, traditional CCA is no longer appropriate. This paper proposes a method for sparse CCA. Sparse estimation produces linear combinations of only a subset of variables from each dataset, thereby increasing the interpretability of the canonical variates. We consider the CCA problem from a predictive point of view and recast it into a regression framework. By combining an alternating regression approach together with a lasso penalty, we induce sparsity in the canonical vectors. We compare the performance with other sparse CCA techniques in different simulation settings and illustrate its usefulness on a genomic dataset.

Robust sparse canonical correlation analysis

BackgroundCanonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a multivariate statistical method which describes the associations between two sets of variables. The objective is to find linear combinations of the variables in each data set having maximal correlation. In genomics, CCA has become increasingly important to estimate the associations between gene expression data and DNA copy number change data. The identification of such associations might help to increase our understanding of the development of diseases such as cancer. However, these data sets are typically high-dimensional, containing a lot of variables relative to the number of objects. Moreover, the data sets might contain atypical observations since it is likely that objects react differently to treatments. We discuss a method for Robust Sparse CCA, thereby providing a solution to both issues. Sparse estimation produces canonical vectors with some of their elements estimated as exactly zero. As such, their interpretability is improved. Robust methods can cope with atypical observations in the data.ResultsWe illustrate the good performance of the Robust Sparse CCA method by several simulation studies and three biometric examples. Robust Sparse CCA considerably outperforms its main alternatives in (1) correctly detecting the main associations between the data sets, in (2) accurately estimating these associations, and in (3) detecting outliers.ConclusionsRobust Sparse CCA delivers interpretable canonical vectors, while at the same time coping with outlying observations. The proposed method is able to describe the associations between high-dimensional data sets, which are nowadays commonplace in genomics.Furthermore, the Robust Sparse CCA method allows to characterize outliers.

An Algorithm for the Multivariate Group Lasso with Covariance Estimation

ABSTRACT We study a group lasso estimator for the multivariate linear regression model that accounts for correlated error terms. A block coordinate descent algorithm is used to compute this estimator. We perform a simulation study with categorical data and multivariate time series data, typical settings with a natural grouping among the predictor variables. Our simulation studies show the good performance of the proposed group lasso estimator compared to alternative estimators. We illustrate the method on a time series data set of gene expressions.

The Predictive Power of the Business and Bank Sentiment of Firms: A High-Dimensional Granger Causality Approach

We study the predictive power of industry-specific economic sentiment indicators for future macro-economic developments. In addition to the sentiment of firms towards their own business situation, we study their sentiment with respect to the banking sector - their main credit providers. The use of industry-specific sentiment indicators results in a high-dimensional forecasting problem. To identify the most predictive industries, we present a bootstrap Granger Causality test based on the Adaptive Lasso. This test is more powerful than the standard Wald test in such high-dimensional settings. Forecast accuracy is improved by using only the most predictive industries rather than all industries.

Cellwise robust regularized discriminant analysis

Quadratic and Linear Discriminant Analysis (QDA/LDA) are the most often applied classification rules under normality. In QDA, a separate covariance matrix is estimated for each group. If there are more variables than observations in the groups, the usual estimates are singular and cannot be used anymore. Assuming homoscedasticity, as in LDA, reduces the number of parameters to estimate. This rather strong assumption is however rarely verified in practice. Regularized discriminant techniques that are computable in high-dimension and cover the path between the two extremes QDA and LDA have been proposed in the literature. However, these procedures rely on sample covariance matrices. As such, they become inappropriate in presence of cellwise outliers, a type of outliers that is very likely to occur in high-dimensional datasets. In this paper, we propose cellwise robust counterparts of these regularized discriminant techniques by inserting cellwise robust covariance matrices. Our methodology results in a family of discriminant methods that (i) are robust against outlying cells, (ii) cover the gap between LDA and QDA and (iii) are computable in high-dimension. The good performance of the new methods is illustrated through simulated and real data examples. As a by-product, visual tools are provided for the detection of outliers.

Volatility Spillovers and Heavy Tails: A Large t-Vector AutoRegressive Approach

Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers - are studied using the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model. We account for the possible fat-tailed distribution of the VAR model errors using a VAR model with errors following a multivariate Student t-distribution with unknown degrees of freedom. Moreover, we study volatility spillovers among a large number of assets. To this end, we use penalized estimation of the VAR model with t-distributed errors. We study volatility spillovers among energy, biofuel and agricultural commodities and reveal bidirectional volatility spillovers between energy and biofuel, and between energy and agricultural commodities.

Commodity dynamics: A sparse multi-class approach

The correct understanding of commodity price dynamics can bring relevant improvements in terms of policy formulation both for developing and developed countries. Agricultural, metal and energy commodity prices might depend on each other: although we expect few important effects among the total number of possible ones, some price effects among different commodities might still be substantial. Moreover, the increasing integration of the world economy suggests that these effects should be comparable for different markets. This paper introduces a sparse estimator of the Multi-class Vector AutoRegressive model to detect common price effects between a large number of commodities, for different markets or investment portfolios. In a first application, we consider agricultural, metal and energy commodities for three different markets. We show a large prevalence of effects involving metal commodities in the Chinese and Indian markets, and the existence of asymmetric price effects. In a second application, we analyze commodity prices for five different investment portfolios, and highlight the existence of important effects from energy to agricultural commodities. The relevance of biofuels is hereby confirmed. Overall, we find stronger similarities in commodity price effects among portfolios than among markets.