Inese Huttunen

A National-Scale Nutrient Loading Model for Finnish Watersheds—VEMALA

VEMALA is an operational, national-scale nutrient loading model for Finnish watersheds. It simulates hydrology; nutrient processes; leaching; and transport on land, rivers, and lakes. The model simulates nutrient gross load, retention, and net load from Finnish watersheds to the Baltic Sea. It was developed over a period of many years and three versions are currently operational, simulating different nutrients and processes. The first version of VEMALA (vs. 1.1) is based on a regression model between nutrient concentration and runoff. Since the first version, the model has been developed towards a more process-based nutrient loading model, by developing a catchment scale, semi-process-based model of total nitrogen loading, VEMALA-N, and by incorporating and developing a field-scale process-based model, ICECREAM, for total phosphorus loading simulations (VEMALA-ICECREAM). The model performance was tested in two ways: (1) by comparison of simulated net nitrogen and phosphorus loads with loads calculated from monitoring data for all major watersheds in Finland and (2) by comparing simulated and observed daily nutrient concentrations for the river Aurajoki by both old and new, process-based model approaches. Comparison of the results shows that the model is suitable for nutrient load simulation at a watershed scale and at a national scale; the new versions of the model are also suitable for applications at a smaller scale.

Effects of climate change and agricultural adaptation on nutrient loading from Finnish catchments to the Baltic Sea

Climate change is expected to increase annual and especially winter runoff, shorten the snow cover period and therefore increase both nutrient leaching from agricultural areas and natural background leaching in the Baltic Sea catchment. We estimated the effects of climate change and possible future scenarios of agricultural changes on the phosphorus and nitrogen loading to the Baltic Sea from Finnish catchments. In the agricultural scenarios we assumed that the prices of agricultural products are among the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change, as they affect the level of fertilization and the production intensity and volume and, hence, the modeled changes in gross nutrient loading from agricultural land. Optimal adaptation may increase production while supporting appropriate use of fertilization, resulting in low nutrient balance in the fields. However, a less optimal adaptation may result in higher nutrient balance and increased leaching. The changes in nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea were predicted by taking into account the agricultural scenarios in a nutrient loading model for Finnish catchments (VEMALA), which simulates runoff, nutrient processes, leaching and transport on land, in rivers and in lakes. We thus integrated the effects of climate change in the agricultural sector, nutrient loading in fields, natural background loading, hydrology and nutrient transport and retention processes.

ESLab application to a boreal watershed in southern Finland: preparing for a virtual research environment of ecosystem services.

Abstract We report on preparatory work to develop a virtual laboratory for ecosystem services, ESLab, and demonstrate its pilot application in southern Finland. The themes included in the pilot are related to biodiversity conservation, climate mitigation and eutrophication mitigation. ESLab is a research environment for ecosystem services (ES), which considers ES indicators at different landscape scales: habitats, catchments and municipalities and shares the results by a service that utilizes machine readable interfaces. The study area of the pilot application is situated in the boreal region of southern Finland and covers 14 municipalities and ten catchments including forested, agricultural and nature conservation areas. We present case studies including: present carbon budgets of natural ecosystems; future carbon budgets with and without the removal of harvest residues for bioenergy production; and total phosphorus and nitrogen future loads under climate and agricultural yield and price scenarios. The ESLab allows researchers to present and share the results as visual maps, statistics and graphs. Our further aim is to provide a toolbox of easily accessible virtual services for ES researchers, to illustrate the comprehensive societal consequences of multiple decisions (e.g. concerning land use, fertilisation or harvesting) in a changing environment (climate, deposition).

Participatory operations model for cost-efficient monitoring and modeling of river basins — A systematic approach

The worldwide economic downturn and the climate change in the beginning of 21st century have stressed the need for cost efficient and systematic operations model for the monitoring and management of surface waters. However, these processes are still all too fragmented and incapable to respond these challenges. For example in Finland, the estimation of the costs and benefits of planned management measures is insufficient. On this account, we present a new operations model to streamline these processes and to ensure the lucid decision making and the coherent implementation which facilitate the participation of public and all the involved stakeholders. The model was demonstrated in the real world management of a lake. The benefits, pitfalls and development needs were identified. After the demonstration, the operations model was put into operation and has been actively used in several other management projects throughout Finland.

The Climate Change and Groundwater Regimes in Finland

The boreal climate zone, which Finland is situated in, causes four seasons: cold winters, cool springs, short summers, and wet autumns. The aquifers are shallow and residence times are from a few months to a few years. The groundwater levels increase or decrease according to season changes. The annual cycle depends on the groundwater regime. The analysis of the years 1974-2007 indicates that the groundwater regimes have slightly moved northwards. The climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation together with the Watershed Simulation and Forecast-ing System project that this trend will continue. The prognosis is, that winters will shorten, and the summer periods will become longer and warmer. Dryness will increase during summertime while wetness will increase during wintertime. It is possible that in the future there will only be two sea-sons: wet winters and dry summers.