Ingo Bulla

jpHMM: improving the reliability of recombination prediction in HIV-1

Previously, we developed jumping profile hidden Markov model (jpHMM), a new method to detect recombinations in HIV-1 genomes. The jpHMM predicts recombination breakpoints in a query sequence and assigns to each position of the sequence one of the major HIV-1 subtypes. Since incorrect subtype assignment or recombination prediction may lead to wrong conclusions in epidemiological or vaccine research, information about the reliability of the predicted parental subtypes and breakpoint positions is valuable. For this reason, we extended the output of jpHMM to include such information in terms of ‘uncertainty’ regions in the recombination prediction and an interval estimate of the breakpoint. Both types of information are computed based on the posterior probabilities of the subtypes at each query sequence position. Our results show that this extension strongly improves the reliability of the jpHMM recombination prediction. The jpHMM is available online at http://jphmm.gobics.de/.

Stylized facts of financial time series and hidden semi-Markov models

Hidden Markov models reproduce most of the stylized facts about daily series of returns. A notable exception is the inability of the models to reproduce one ubiquitous feature of such time series, namely the slow decay in the autocorrelation function of the squared returns. It is shown that this stylized fact can be described much better by means of hidden semi-Markov models. This is illustrated by examining the fit of two such models to 18 series of daily sector returns.

Timing and order of transmission events is not directly reflected in a pathogen phylogeny

Pathogen phylogenies are often used to infer spread among hosts. There is, however, not an exact match between the pathogen phylogeny and the host transmission history. Here, we examine in detail the limitations of this relationship. First, all splits in a pathogen phylogeny of more than 1 host occur within hosts, not at the moment of transmission, predating the transmission events as described by the pretransmission interval. Second, the order in which nodes in a phylogeny occur may be reflective of the within-host dynamics rather than epidemiologic relationships. To investigate these phenomena, motivated by within-host diversity patterns, we developed a two-phase coalescent model that includes a transmission bottleneck followed by linear outgrowth to a maximum population size followed by either stabilization or decline of the population. The model predicts that the pretransmission interval shrinks compared with predictions based on constant population size or a simple transmission bottleneck. Because lineages coalesce faster in a small population, the probability of a pathogen phylogeny to resemble the transmission history depends on when after infection a donor transmits to a new host. We also show that the probability of inferring the incorrect order of multiple transmissions from the same host is high. Finally, we compare time of HIV-1 infection informed by genetic distances in phylogenies to independent biomarker data, and show that, indeed, the pretransmission interval biases phylogeny-based estimates of when transmissions occurred. We describe situations where caution is needed not to misinterpret which parts of a phylogeny that may indicate outbreaks and tight transmission clusters.

hsmm - An R package for analyzing hidden semi-Markov models

Hidden semi-Markov models are a generalization of the well-known hidden Markov model. They allow for a greater flexibility of sojourn time distributions, which implicitly follow a geometric distribution in the case of a hidden Markov chain. The aim of this paper is to describe hsmm, a new software package for the statistical computing environment R. This package allows for the simulation and maximum likelihood estimation of hidden semi-Markov models. The implemented Expectation Maximization algorithm assumes that the time spent in the last visited state is subject to right-censoring. It is therefore not subject to the common limitation that the last visited state terminates at the last observation. Additionally, hsmm permits the user to make inferences about the underlying state sequence via the Viterbi algorithm and smoothing probabilities.

Detection of viral sequence fragments of HIV-1 subfamilies yet unknown

BackgroundMethods of determining whether or not any particular HIV-1 sequence stems - completely or in part - from some unknown HIV-1 subtype are important for the design of vaccines and molecular detection systems, as well as for epidemiological monitoring. Nevertheless, a single algorithm only, the Branching Index (BI), has been developed for this task so far. Moving along the genome of a query sequence in a sliding window, the BI computes a ratio quantifying how closely the query sequence clusters with a subtype clade. In its current version, however, the BI does not provide predicted boundaries of unknown fragments.ResultsWe have developed Unknown Subtype Finder (USF), an algorithm based on a probabilistic model, which automatically determines which parts of an input sequence originate from a subtype yet unknown. The underlying model is based on a simple profile hidden Markov model (pHMM) for each known subtype and an additional pHMM for an unknown subtype. The emission probabilities of the latter are estimated using the emission frequencies of the known subtypes by means of a (position-wise) probabilistic model for the emergence of new subtypes. We have applied USF to SIV and HIV-1 sequences formerly classified as having emerged from an unknown subtype. Moreover, we have evaluated its performance on artificial HIV-1 recombinants and non-recombinant HIV-1 sequences. The results have been compared with the corresponding results of the BI.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that USF is suitable for detecting segments in HIV-1 sequences stemming from yet unknown subtypes. Comparing USF with the BI shows that our algorithm performs as good as the BI or better.

jpHMM: recombination analysis in viruses with circular genomes such as the hepatitis B virus

jpHMM is a very accurate and widely used tool for recombination detection in genomic sequences of HIV-1. Here, we present an extension of jpHMM to analyze recombinations in viruses with circular genomes such as the hepatitis B virus (HBV). Sequence analysis of circular genomes is usually performed on linearized sequences using linear models. Since linear models are unable to model dependencies between nucleotides at the 5′- and 3′-end of a sequence, this can result in inaccurate predictions of recombination breakpoints and thus in incorrect classification of viruses with circular genomes. The proposed circular jpHMM takes into account the circularity of the genome and is not biased against recombination breakpoints close to the 5′- or 3′-end of the linearized version of the circular genome. It can be applied automatically to any query sequence without assuming a specific origin for the sequence coordinates. We apply the method to genomic sequences of HBV and visualize its output in a circular form. jpHMM is available online at http://jphmm.gobics.de for download and as a web server for HIV-1 and HBV sequences.

Phylogenetically resolving epidemiologic linkage

Significance Phylogenetic inference of who infected whom has great value in epidemiological investigations because it should provide an objective test of an explicit hypothesis about how transmission(s) occurred. Until now, however, there has not been a systematic evaluation of which phylogeny to expect from different transmission histories, and thus the interpretation of what an observed phylogeny actually means has remained somewhat elusive. Here, we show that certain types of phylogenies associate with different transmission histories, which may make it possible to exclude possible intermediary links or identify cases where a common source was likely but not sampled. Our systematic classification and evaluation of expected topologies should make future interpretation of phylogenetic results in epidemiological investigations more objective and informative. Although the use of phylogenetic trees in epidemiological investigations has become commonplace, their epidemiological interpretation has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we use an HIV-1 within-host coalescent model to probabilistically evaluate transmission histories of two epidemiologically linked hosts. Previous critique of phylogenetic reconstruction has claimed that direction of transmission is difficult to infer, and that the existence of unsampled intermediary links or common sources can never be excluded. The phylogenetic relationship between the HIV populations of epidemiologically linked hosts can be classified into six types of trees, based on cladistic relationships and whether the reconstruction is consistent with the true transmission history or not. We show that the direction of transmission and whether unsampled intermediary links or common sources existed make very different predictions about expected phylogenetic relationships: (i) Direction of transmission can often be established when paraphyly exists, (ii) intermediary links can be excluded when multiple lineages were transmitted, and (iii) when the sampled individuals’ HIV populations both are monophyletic a common source was likely the origin. Inconsistent results, suggesting the wrong transmission direction, were generally rare. In addition, the expected tree topology also depends on the number of transmitted lineages, the sample size, the time of the sample relative to transmission, and how fast the diversity increases after infection. Typically, 20 or more sequences per subject give robust results. We confirm our theoretical evaluations with analyses of real transmission histories and discuss how our findings should aid in interpreting phylogenetic results.

Exploration of Circadian Rhythms in Patients with Bilateral Vestibular Loss

Background New insights have expanded the influence of the vestibular system to the regulation of circadian rhythmicity. Indeed, hypergravity or bilateral vestibular loss (BVL) in rodents causes a disruption in their daily rhythmicity for several days. The vestibular system thus influences hypothalamic regulation of circadian rhythms on Earth, which raises the question of whether daily rhythms might be altered due to vestibular pathology in humans. The aim of this study was to evaluate human circadian rhythmicity in people presenting a total bilateral vestibular loss (BVL) in comparison with control participants. Methodology and Principal Findings Nine patients presenting a total idiopathic BVL and 8 healthy participants were compared. Their rest-activity cycle was recorded by actigraphy at home over 2 weeks. The daily rhythm of temperature was continuously recorded using a telemetric device and salivary cortisol was recorded every 3 hours from 6:00AM to 9:00PM over 24 hours. BVL patients displayed a similar rest activity cycle during the day to control participants but had higher nocturnal actigraphy, mainly during weekdays. Sleep efficiency was reduced in patients compared to control participants. Patients had a marked temperature rhythm but with a significant phase advance (73 min) and a higher variability of the acrophase (from 2:24 PM to 9:25 PM) with no correlation to rest-activity cycle, contrary to healthy participants. Salivary cortisol levels were higher in patients compared to healthy people at any time of day. Conclusion We observed a marked circadian rhythmicity of temperature in patients with BVL, probably due to the influence of the light dark cycle. However, the lack of synchronization between the temperature and rest-activity cycle supports the hypothesis that the vestibular inputs are salient input to the circadian clock that enhance the stabilization and precision of both external and internal entrainment.

HIV classification using the coalescent theory

MOTIVATION Existing coalescent models and phylogenetic tools based on them are not designed for studying the genealogy of sequences like those of HIV, since in HIV recombinants with multiple cross-over points between the parental strains frequently arise. Hence, ambiguous cases in the classification of HIV sequences into subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) have been treated with ad hoc methods in lack of tools based on a comprehensive coalescent model accounting for complex recombination patterns. RESULTS We developed the program ARGUS that scores classifications of sequences into subtypes and recombinant forms. It reconstructs ancestral recombination graphs (ARGs) that reflect the genealogy of the input sequences given a classification hypothesis. An ARG with maximal probability is approximated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. ARGUS was able to distinguish the correct classification with a low error rate from plausible alternative classifications in simulation studies with realistic parameters. We applied our algorithm to decide between two recently debated alternatives in the classification of CRF02 of HIV-1 and find that CRF02 is indeed a recombinant of Subtypes A and G. AVAILABILITY ARGUS is implemented in C++ and the source code is available at http://gobics.de/software.

A model-based information sharing protocol for profile Hidden Markov Models used for HIV-1 recombination detection

BackgroundIn many applications, a family of nucleotide or protein sequences classified into several subfamilies has to be modeled. Profile Hidden Markov Models (pHMMs) are widely used for this task, modeling each subfamily separately by one pHMM. However, a major drawback of this approach is the difficulty of dealing with subfamilies composed of very few sequences. One of the most crucial bioinformatical tasks affected by the problem of small-size subfamilies is the subtyping of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) sequences, i.e., HIV-1 subtypes for which only a small number of sequences is known.ResultsTo deal with small samples for particular subfamilies of HIV-1, we introduce a novel model-based information sharing protocol. It estimates the emission probabilities of the pHMM modeling a particular subfamily not only based on the nucleotide frequencies of the respective subfamily but also incorporating the nucleotide frequencies of all available subfamilies. To this end, the underlying probabilistic model mimics the pattern of commonality and variation between the subtypes with regards to the biological characteristics of HI viruses. In order to implement the proposed protocol, we make use of an existing HMM architecture and its associated inference engine.ConclusionsWe apply the modified algorithm to classify HIV-1 sequence data in the form of partial HIV-1 sequences and semi-artificial recombinants. Thereby, we demonstrate that the performance of pHMMs can be significantly improved by the proposed technique. Moreover, we show that our algorithm performs significantly better than Simplot and Bootscanning.