Ingrid H. Ellingsen

Physical constrains and productivity in the future Arctic Ocean

Todays physical oceanography and primary and secondary production was investigated for the entire Arctic Ocean with the physical-biologically coupled SINMOD model. To obtain indications on the effect of climate change in the 21th century the magnitude of change, and where and when these may take place SINMOD was forced with down-scaled climate trajectories of the International Panel of Climate Change with the A1B climate scenario which appears to predict an average global atmospheric temperature increase of 3.5 to 4 °C at the end of this century. It is projected that some surface water features of the physical oceanography in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent regions will change considerably. The largest changes will occur along the continuous domains of Pacific and in particular regarding Atlantic Water advection and the inflow shelves. Withdrawal of ice will increase primary production, but stratification will persist or, for the most, get stronger as a function of ice-melt and thermal warming along the inflow shelves. Thus the nutrient dependent new and harvestable production will not increase proportionally with increasing photosynthetic active radiation. The greatest increases in primary production are found along the Eurasian perimeter of the Arctic Ocean (up to 40 g C m-2 y-1) and in particular in the northern Barents and Kara Seas (40-80 g C m-2 y-1) where less ice-cover implies less Arctic Water and thus less stratification. Along the shelf break engirdling the Arctic Ocean upwelling and vertical mixing supplies nutrients to the euphotic zone when ice-cover withdraws northwards. The production of Arctic copepods along the Eurasian perimeter of the Arctic Ocean will increase significantly by the end of this century (2-4 g C m-2 y-1). Primary and secondary production will decrease along the southern sections of the continuous advection domains of Pacific and Atlantic Water due to increasing thermal stratification. In the central Arctic Ocean primary production will not increase much due to stratification-induced nutrient limitation.

Status and trends in the structure of Arctic benthic food webs

Ongoing climate warming is causing a dramatic loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, and it is projected that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally ice-free by 2040. Many studies of local Arctic food webs now exist, and with this review paper we aim to synthesize these into a large-scale assessment of the current status of knowledge on the structure of various Arctic marine food webs and their response to climate change, and to sea-ice retreat in particular. Key drivers of ecosystem change and potential consequences for ecosystem functioning and Arctic marine food webs are identified along the sea-ice gradient, with special emphasis on the following regions: seasonally ice-free Barents and Chukchi seas, loose ice pack zone of the Polar Front and Marginal Ice Zone, and permanently sea-ice covered High Arctic. Finally, we identify knowledge gaps in different Arctic marine food webs and provide recommendations for future studies.

Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models

The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959–2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO3, MLD, and Zeu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO3 was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling.

Spatiotemporal Dispersal and Deposition of Fish Farm Wastes: A Model Study from Central Norway

Abstract A spatially explicit coupled hydrodynamic-mass transport model system was used to simulate dispersal of particulate organic matter from Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) farming in central Norway. Model setups of 32 m horizontal resolution were run for periods of up to 650 days for 3 sites of different oceanographic characteristics: one fjord location, one medium-exposed location influenced by fjord water and one coastal location. Records on feed used for each cage at each location were converted to feces released based on a published mass balance model. The results from the simulations were compared with scores from corresponding mandatory benthic surveys (MOM-B) of the sediment layer beneath the farms. The correspondence between simulated and measured thickness of the sediment layer was good, and improved with the inclusion of resuspension processes. At all sites the distribution of organic matter in the bottom layer was non-homogeneous, with significant temporal variation and transport and settling of matter up to at least 0.5 km away from one of the farms. Our results indicate that the monitoring practice used in Norway until now, with a few sediment grab samples taken mainly within the fish farm, may not adequately determine the areal impacts of all salmon farming operations. The patchy distribution of organic matter and the correspondence between simulation and survey results is attributed to the use of full 3D current fields of a high spatiotemporal resolution and a good model for resuspension processes that some previous model studies have failed to properly account for.

Ship Performance Assessment for Arctic Transport Routes

The melting ice cap in the Arctic Sea creates greater operational opportunities not only for shipping routes in areas inaccessible in the past due to ice coverage, but also for the existing commercial shipping routes. Therefore, the economic feasibility of higher polar classes (PC5 and PC4) will be discussed for transit operations on the route from Rotterdam to Yamal LNG terminal. Initially, the ice thickness and coverage along the route until 2050 will be identified following recent forecasting trends. This will lead to the permitted round trips per year for the ice class in question. Consequently, a decision towards the choice of ice class must be made. This choice will be accomplished with the help of the ship merit factor (SMF), which considers the potential earnings arising from the increase in operational days for a higher ice class while accounting for the increased expenditure in the ice free season and areas of operation. As a result, a comparative study will be presented for the LNG sea transport operation on the route from Rotterdam to Yamal, which thereby visualizes a decision-support procedure for an arctic transit operation.© 2013 ASME

Information-driven robotic sampling in the coastal ocean

Nansen Legacy Program, Grant/AwardNumber:27272; Senter for Autonome Marine Operasjoner og Systemer,Grant/Award Number: 223254; Norges Forskningsrad,Grant/Award Number: 255303/E40; European Unions Seventh Framework Programme(FP7/2007–2013), Grant/Award Number: 270180