Ingrid Woolard

Determinants of Income Mobility and Household Poverty Dynamics in South Africa

This article analyses household income mobility among Africans in South Africas most populous province, KwaZulu-Natal, between 1993 and 1998. Compared to industrialised and most developing countries, mobility has been quite high, as might have been expected after the transition in South Africa. This finding is robust when measurement error is controlled for. When disaggregating the sources of mobility, it is found that demographic changes and employment changes account for most of the mobility observed which is related to rapidly shifting household boundaries and a very volatile labour market in an environment of high unemployment. Using a multivariate analysis, it can be seen that transitory incomes play a large role. Four types of poverty traps are found, associated with large initial household size, poor initial education, poor initial asset endowment and poor initial employment access that dominate the otherwise observed regression towards the mean.

Levels, trends and consistency of employment and unemployment figures in South Africa

This article appraises the similarities and dissimilarities between the major sources of information on the South African labour force, ie the CSS Employment Series, the Standardised Employment Series and recent household surveys. It concludes that the generally bleak picture of very high unemployment rates presented in the household surveys is broadly accurate. Further, race, gender and location are major determinants of labour-force participation and employment. Finally, the article highlights the lack of work experience among the unemployed.

A comparison of poverty in South Africa's nine provinces

Poverty in South Africa varies greatly across the nine provinces. An accurate estimation of relative poverty shares is important because they serve as key indices for targeting social expenditure. In this article we test the robustness of provincial poverty rankings against changes in measurement methodology. In recent years, a large body of international literature has developed concerning the choice of an appropriate poverty line and the construction of more appropriate poverty measures. This article uses two of these recent developments - the concept of a poverty critical range in place of a single poverty line and distribution-sensitive decomposable poverty measures — to re-examine provincial poverty. Results are checked across two recent national data sets.