Inki Min

Budget-constrained portfolio trades using multiobjective optimization

A decision support process using many-objective optimization, high-performance computing, and advanced visualization is applied to gain comprehensive insight into multistakeholder portfolio budgeting trades. The key tradeoffs among nondominated portfolio budget solutions are systematically identified and examined with respect to different stakeholder viewpoints. The approach is illustrated using a portfolio of 14 U.S. Air Force satellite development programs using budget data taken from the 2010 Future Year Development Plan [http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/budget/, last accessed April 20, 2011]. Practical lessons learned in applying the approach are discussed. ©2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 15

Future Space System Support to U.S. Military Operations in an Ice-Free Arctic: Broadband Satellite Communications Considerations

Significant increases in shipping traffic and resource exploration/exploitation activities are occurring in the Arctic region. The U.S. Navy, Coast Guard and other military services have begun to plan for increased operations in the region, which could start ramping up as early as about 2013 if recent climate model predictions for Arctic melting prove accurate. The polar region is a very different arena for space system operations compared to lower latitudes, and supporting increased U.S. military activities in the Arctic may require new satellite systems and user terminals. U.S. weather, navigation and surveillance satellites in polar orbits already cover the Arctic region, but current military satellite communications capabilities in the region are quite limited and existing passive satellite imagery (for ice monitoring and other types of surveillance) is hampered by persistent cloud cover and seasonal darkness. Given the high costs and long lead times (up to 10 years or more) to develop new space systems, the U.S. military could face a shortage of communications and possibly other space-based support capabilities during a period when nations are intensely jockeying for influence and resource claims in the region. Canada and Russia are developing new satellite programs to support their countries’ increased Arctic activities. The potential need for new space-based support capabilities in the Arctic region is certainly well within the U.S. military’s current planning horizon. This paper focuses on the military’s future requirements and options for broadband satellite communications in the Arctic region. Getting a head start on defining the requirements analysis and procurement options will help to expedite the space-system acquisition process when, perhaps in the very near future, the timeline for Arctic melting and increased military activities in the region becomes better established.

Decision Support Framework Development and Application

The Concept Design Center (CDC) at The Aerospace Corporation does an excellent job of assessing the performance of single discipline space systems; however, the relevant decision environment involves the evaluation of combinations of space and non-space solutions against a variety of metrics. The goal of developing an enhanced Decision Support Framework (DSF) is to provide National Security Space (NSS) decision makers at all levels with more comprehensive and relevant information upon which to base their decisions. As one component of the DSF development at The Aerospace Corporation, the capabilities of the CDC will be enhanced to analyze the performance of multiple systems and combination of systems. Incorporation of military utility analysis tools in the CDC environment will permit exploratory analyses over a range of values to map measures of performance to measures of effectiveness. Addition of economic analysis tools capable of cross portfolio analysis will enable affordability and cost effectiveness trades to be performed. New tools capable of performing value centric analysis will permit The Aerospace Corporation to explore conceptual design trade space for NSS missions using a broader set of metrics.

Decision Support Framework: Architecture development

From its inception over fifty years ago, The Aerospace Corporation has been supporting government decision making with objective technical analysis performed by subject matter experts using many tools, models, and evaluation processes. Strong customer demand for timely analysis and advances in modeling capabilities have motivated the integration of fast, concurrent, engineering processes into what is now defined as the Decision Support Framework (DSF). The open-model DSF employs a layered approach to capability evaluation that encompasses technical, programmatic, mission, enterprise, and national levels. This paper describes DSF with focus on the architecting module. Sample architecture products from a recent Overhead Persistent Infra Red (OPIR) development planning study are given to illustrate current DSF architecting processes.

Rapid space architecture development and analysis using an integrated toolset

Concurrent engineering methodologies (CEMs) have become standard practice for conceptual spacecraft design. These methodologies have been implemented in spacecraft design tools for use by single users as well as for multiple analysts linked over a network performing more complex or broader analyses. Along with the development of these tools, there has also been an increasing need to analyze future space system options at a broader, architectural level. The trade space for such an analysis may include constellation design (altitude, inclination, number), payload sizing, and spacecraft bus configuration. The goal is to be able to span a wide trade space while maintaining analytical fidelity, and arrive at an integrated solution in a short amount of time. This need was recently highlighted during Air Force Space Commands operationally responsive spacelift (ORS) analysis of alternatives (AoA) study, in which several different space architectures had to be generated to support a rather compressed study schedule. This paper describes the development and utilization of the space architecture development and analysis tool (SADAT) which allowed rapid generation of hundreds of system options and the final selection of 30 different space systems to be included as part of the study. The extension of this tool to incorporate more models, such as launch vehicle sizing and cost estimation, extending automation and optimization, and its use as pre-study tool for the Aerospace Corporations Concept Design Center (CDC) are also discussed.

The Portfolio Decision Support Tool (PDST): A software tool for architecture integration and visualization

Portfolio Decision Support Tool (PDST) integrates and visualizes multi-faceted architectural data in support of the acquisition decision making process. The intent of the tool is to capture data in a structured process to facilitate architecture and enterprise-level analyses and to allow its users to focus on key factors by providing a dynamic interface to a broad underlying dataset. This paper describes the approach, layout, functionality, and applications of the tool and includes relevant examples that highlight its capabilities.

Feasibility of Space-Based Monitoring for Governance of Solar Radiation Management Activities

Substantive research has begun into proposed schemes to synthetically increase the earth’s albedo (reflectivity) as a potential improvised measure to mitigate impacts of global warming if emission reductions are not sufficient or if the climate response is more extreme than anticipated. The authors of this paper do not take a position on whether Solar Radiation Management (SRM) should be used as a strategy to respond to climate change. However, future international agreements regarding development, testing, and implementation of SRM schemes will not be enforceable without effective means of monitoring and verification, especially since the relatively low cost of injecting reflective particles such as sulfur into the upper atmosphere will allow individual nations perhaps even private corporations or other groups to experiment on their own. This paper discusses monitoring requirements and the feasibility of space-based remote-sensing systems for detecting and monitoring particle injection into the upper atmosphere. Our preliminary findings suggest that detecting clandestine unilateral small-scale precursor particle-injection with satellite instruments may not be practical. This conclusion suggests that future treaty negotiations will need to consider alternative means of monitoring such activities.

Five pillars of enterprise portfolio planning

Current U.S. government space systems acquisition processes are regularly criticized for their inability to adequately plan for the frequent cost overruns and schedule delays experienced by new developments and acquisitions. These overruns and delays can have a detrimental effect across a portfolio of projects and programs leading to reduced integrated capabilities and delayed fulfillment of critical requirements. Although best practices for improved cost and schedule estimating are continually being pursued, the natural tension between conservative estimating and aggressive planning will always exist to avoid the ever-present fear of being dubbed a “non-starter” and cancelled early in a projects lifecycle. Thus, portfolio planning across an enterprise of projects and Programs must address the uncertainty that exists within new acquisitions in an environment of ever-changing stakeholder needs and strategic, economic, and political priorities while demonstrating the value of each investment to the enterprise strategic vision. Existing portfolio management processes are often disconnected from strategic plans and focus solely on the static affordability of an existing portfolio, disregarding the executability and sustainability of these programs in the dynamic, high risk environment of space systems acquisition. This paper proposes a process to improve enterprise portfolio planning through the integrated evaluation of five critical metrics: Capability, Affordability, Executability, Adaptability, and Continuity. These five metrics, referred to as the Five Pillars of Enterprise Portfolio Planning, are critical components for optimizing the portfolio management process, which is all the more important in a current environment emphasizing the need for resilient enterprise architectures whose successful implementation will require accounting for both programmatic and operational threats. The first metric, Capability, quantifies the alignment between a portfolio of functional elements and an organizations objectives and/or strategic goals. The next metric, Affordability, measures the ability of a portfolio of functional elements to achieve and maintain a required capability set under a given funding level over time. The third metric, Executability, measures the ability of a portfolio to execute plans without schedule delays while accounting for the full range of programmatic and technical risks. Adaptability measures the ability of a portfolio to remain viable over time in an environment of evolving requirements/capability needs, changing priorities and politics, and uncertain funding levels. The last metric, Continuity, measures the ability of a portfolio to satisfy a defined capability set over time without gaps, lags, or shortfalls. Together, in an integrated framework, these Five Pillars serve as the basis for a process to make informed decisions aligned with a common strategic vision for the enterprise portfolio.