Ioannis Laliotis

Total and cause-specific mortality before and after the onset of the Greek economic crisis: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND Greece was one of the countries hit the hardest by the 2008 financial crisis in Europe. Yet, evidence on the effect of the crisis on total and cause-specific mortality remains unclear. We explored whether the economic crisis affected the trend of overall and cause-specific mortality rates. METHODS We used regional panel data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority to assess mortality trends by age, sex, region, and cause in Greece between January, 2001, and December, 2013. We used Eurostat data to calculate monthly age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 inhabitants for each region. Data were divided into two subperiods: before the crisis (January, 2001, to August, 2008) and after the onset of the crisis (September, 2008, to December, 2013). We tested for changes in the slope of mortality by doing an interrupted time-series analysis. FINDINGS Overall mortality continued to decline after the onset of the financial crisis (-0·065, 95% CI -0·080 to -0·049), but at a slower pace than before the crisis (-0·13, -0·15 to -0·10; trend difference 0·062, 95% CI 0·041 to 0·083; p<0·0001). The trend difference was more evident for females (0·087, 95% CI 0·064-0·11; p<0·0001) than for males (0·040, 0·013-0·066; p=0·007). Those aged at least 75 years experienced more negative effects (trend difference 0·056, 95% CI 0·042 to 0·071; p<0·0001) than did those aged 20-34 years, in whom mortality trends improved (-0·0074, -0·0089 to -0·0059; p<0·0001). Deaths by diseases of the circulatory system declined more slowly after the onset of compared with before the crisis (trend difference 0·043, 95% CI 0·024 to 0·063; p<0·0001), whereas deaths from vehicular accidents declined faster (-0·0062, -0·0090 to -0·0033; p<0·0001), most prominently among men aged 20-34 years (-0·0065, -0·0085 to -0·0044; p<0·0001). Conversely, deaths from suicides (trend difference 0·0021, 95% CI 0·00092-0·0033; p=0·002), diseases of the nervous system (0·0036, 0·0016-0·0056; p=0·002), and mental health problems (0·00073, 0·000047-0·0014 p=0·038) increased after the onset of the crisis. Also, deaths due to adverse events during medical treatment increased significantly after the onset of the crisis (trend difference 0·0020, 95% CI 0·0012-0·0028; p<0·0001). By comparing the expected values of the period after the onset of the crisis with extrapolated values based on the period before the crisis, we estimate that an extra 242 deaths per month occurred after the onset of the crisis. INTERPRETATION Mortality trends have been interrupted after the onset of compared with before the crisis, but changes vary by age, sex, and cause of death. The increase in deaths due to adverse events during medical treatment might reflect the effects of deterioration in quality of care during economic recessions. FUNDING None.

Firm‐Level Collective Bargaining and Wages in Greece: A Quantile Decomposition Analysis

This article analyzes the effect of firm‐level contracting on the wage structure in the Greek private sector. Using a matched employer–employee dataset for 2006, unconditional quantile regressions and relevant decomposition methods, we identify a wage premium associated with firm‐level contracting, which follows a hump‐shaped profile across the wage distribution. Further, the wage differential between workers under firm‐level and broader‐level collective agreements can be primarily attributed to the differences in the regime‐specific wage setting structure, for those below the median of the unconditional wage distribution, and to differences in worker and firm‐specific characteristics for those in the upper tail.

Cancelled procedures in the English NHS: Evidence from the 2010 tariff reform

This paper explores the role of incentives in the English National Health Service. Until financial year 2009/2010, elective procedures that were cancelled after admission received a fixed reimbursement associated with a specific healthcare resource group code. We investigate whether this induced trusts to admit and then cancel, rather than cancel before admission and/or to cancel low fee over high fee work. As the tariff was ended in April 2010, we conduct an interrupted time series analysis to examine if their behaviour was affected after the tariff removal. The results indicate a small, yet statistically significant, decline in the probability of a last minute cancellation in the post-tariff period, especially for certain types of patients and diagnoses. Copyright

Promoting Normal Birth and Reducing Caesarean Section Rates: An Evaluation of the Rapid Improvement Programme

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2008 Rapid Improvement Programme that aimed at promoting normal birth and reducing caesarean section rates in the English National Health Service. Using Hospital Episode Statistics maternity records for the period 2001-2013, a panel data analysis was performed to determine whether the implementation of the programme reduced caesarean sections rates in participating hospitals. The results obtained using either the unadjusted sample of hospitals or a trimmed sample determined by a propensity score matching approach indicate that the impact of the programme was small. More specifically there were 2.3 to 3.4 fewer caesarean deliveries in participating hospitals, on average, during the postprogramme period offering a limited scope for cost reduction. This result mainly comes from the reduction in the number of emergency caesareans as no significant effect was uncovered for planned caesarean deliveries.

The Establishment-Size Wage Premium in Greece

In this paper we examine the establishment-size wage premium in Greece using a matched employee-employer dataset. The results of the econometric estimation suggest that indeed such a premium is present in the Greek market sector, too. Its magnitude is in line with those reported in other economies. Human capital, compensating wage differentials/incentive payment schemes and internal labor markets seem to be primarily responsible for the presence of the premium in question. Furthermore, the premium in manufacturing is substantially higher than the one in the services sector, indicating that employers in the former enjoy economics of scale, which eventually lead to higher wages, ceteris paribus. Nevertheless, a sizeable part of the premium remains unexplained.