Irma Adelman

Growth, income distribution and equity-oriented development strategies

Abstract Recent findings suggest that the initial impact of economic development on political participation and on the relative share of the poor in national income is to decrease both. Even in absolute and long-run terms the prospects for increasing human welfare through conventional development programmes are questionable. This paper draws on these findings together with the recent historical experience of several developing countries to suggest that equitable growth requires a radical re-orientation of development strategies.

A comparison of two models for income distribution planning

The results from two models developed to explore the relationship between policy instruments and income distribution in developing countries are compared. The BACHUE model is a long run economic demographic model of the Philippines, and the Adelman-Robinson model is a medium-term computable general equilibrium model of Korea. In spite of the differences in focus and design, the two models yield similar conclusions. The size distribution of income is exceeding stable. The relative position of various socioeconomic groups is more sensitive to the choice of economic policy than is the overall distribution. The agricultural terms of trade are the most important single target for policy intervention to improve income distribution. Migration is the most important demographic variable for income. Appropriate trade strategy can lead to significant improvements in the share and absolute incomes of the poor. Balanced, across-the-board policies are needed for effective antipoverty policy even more than for economic growth. 16 references.

Growth and improverishment in the middle of the nineteenth century

Abstract This paper applies the techniques for the development of ‘soft’ data to gain insight into the historical impacts of economic change on the structure and extent of poverty in the early stages of commercialization and industrialization. A typology of the structure of poverty is constructed for 1850 for 24 countries and the nine types which emerge are ranked partially by the probable extent of extreme poverty. The nature and ranking of the types are then used to develop hypotheses regarding the historical processes generating poverty. The paper focuses on the poorest stratum of society in countries of widely different levels of development. The study suggests that the phenomena generating poverty in 1850 were surprisingly similar to those operating in todays developing countries.

An empirical analysis of urban primary education in the United States

Abstract A Factor Analysis of the Coleman report data on Equality of Educational opportunity is performed. The results of this analysis are used to suggest hypotheses about the nature of interactions affecting educational production functions. These hypotheses are then used as an aid in the specification of a simultaneous equation regression model of the educational process. Finally, a set of TSLS estimates of the parameters of this regression model is presented.

An Inquiry into the Course of Poverty in the Nineteenth and early Twentieth centuries

This paper is an inquiry into the course of poverty during the heyday of the expansion of market capitalism in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The focus is on the impact on poverty of commercialisation and industrialisation in countries which underwent some significant aggregate economic change during the period 1850–1914. Traditional economic historians writing on the nineteenth century have not usually stressed the human costs of economic change. Marxian historians have emphasised these costs but have not successfully represented the wide variations in sequences and patterns which characterise the course of poverty under nineteenth-century capitalism. The originality of the study lies in the breadth of its sample and variables and the application of methods of pattern recognition.

Reports by the Chairmen of the Specialised Sessions

The papers presented in this session were partly about measurement problems and partly about the picture shown by the measures we have. Naturally, the two aspects are related. Our picture of the past is affected by which measures we choose to look at. To some extent, too, the actual problem of events makes a difference to which are the most appropriate measures to look at, and also to their reliability.