Irwin Chavez

Longitudinal study of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in a Karen population in Thailand.

BackgroundClinical case treatment of malaria infections where Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are sympatric has achieved effective reductions in P. falciparum prevalence and incidence rates, but has been less successful for P. vivax. The high transmissibility of P. vivax and its capacity to relapse have been suggested to make it a harder parasite species to control.MethodsA clinical malaria case treatment programme was carried out over a decade in a Karen community composed of seven hamlets on the Thai-Myanmar border.ResultsFrom 1994 to 2004, prevalence rates of both P. falciparum and P. vivax decreased by 70–90% in six of the seven study hamlets, but were unchanged in one hamlet. Overall, incidence rates decreased by 72% and 76% for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively over the period 1999–2004. The age-incidence and prevalence curves suggested that P. vivax was more transmissible than P. falciparum despite a greater overall burden of infection with P. falciparum. Male gender was associated with increased risk of clinical presentation with either parasite species. Children (< 15 years old) had an increased risk of presenting with P. vivax but not P. falciparum.ConclusionThere was a considerable reduction in incidence rates of both P. vivax and P. falciparum over a decade following implementation of a case treatment programme. The concern that intervention methods would inadvertently favour one species over another, or even lead to an increase in one parasite species, does not appear to be fulfilled in this case.

Health System Resource Gaps and Associated Mortality from Pandemic Influenza across Six Asian Territories

Background Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. Methods and Findings We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a “mild-to-moderate” pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as “avoidable” mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. Conclusions The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths.

A Randomized Comparison of Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine and Artesunate-Amodiaquine Combined With Primaquine for Radical Treatment of Vivax Malaria in Sumatera, Indonesia

Background. A high prevalence of chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium vivax in Indonesia has shifted first-line treatment to artemisinin-based combination therapies, combined with primaquine (PQ) for radical cure. Which combination is most effective and safe remains to be established. Methods. We conducted a prospective open-label randomized comparison of 14 days of PQ (0.25 mg base/kg) plus either artesunate-amodiaquine (AAQ + PQ) or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHP + PQ) for the treatment of uncomplicated monoinfection P. vivax malaria in North Sumatera, Indonesia. Patients were randomized and treatments were given without prior testing for G6PD status. The primary outcome was parasitological failure at day 42. Patients were followed up to 1 year. Results. Between December 2010 and April 2012, 331 patients were included. After treatment with AAQ + PQ, recurrent infection occurred in 0 of 167 patients within 42 days and in 15 of 130 (11.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.6%–18.3%) within a year. With DHP + PQ, this was 1 of 164 (0.6%; 95% CI, 0.01%–3.4%) and 13 of 143 (9.1%; 95% CI, 4.9%–15.0%), respectively (P > .2). Intravascular hemolysis occurred in 5 patients, of which 3 males were hemizygous for the G6PD-Mahidol mutation. Minor adverse events were more frequent with AAQ + PQ. Conclusions. In North Sumatera, Indonesia, AAQ and DHP, both combined with PQ, were effective for blood-stage parasite clearance of uncomplicated P. vivax malaria. Both treatments were safe, but DHP + PQ was better tolerated. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01288820.

Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator

BackgroundHealth care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics.ResultsThe AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources.ConclusionsThe AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and illustrative information on health care resource capacities during future pandemics. The tool can inform both preparedness plans and simulation exercises and can help increase the general understanding of dynamics in resource capacities during a pandemic. The combination of a mathematical model with multiple resources and the linkage to GIS for creating maps makes the tool unique compared to other available software.

An analysis of health system resources in relation to pandemic response capacity in the Greater Mekong Subregion

BackgroundThere is increasing perception that countries cannot work in isolation to militate against the threat of pandemic influenza. In the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) of Asia, high socio-economic diversity and fertile conditions for the emergence and spread of infectious diseases underscore the importance of transnational cooperation. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution and inequalities can help determine the need for, and inform decisions regarding, resource sharing and mobilisation.MethodsWe collected data on healthcare resources deemed important for responding to pandemic influenza through surveys of hospitals and district health offices across four countries of the GMS (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Vietnam). Focusing on four key resource types (oseltamivir, hospital beds, ventilators, and health workers), we mapped and analysed resource distributions at province level to identify relative shortages, mismatches, and clustering of resources. We analysed inequalities in resource distribution using the Gini coefficient and Theil index.ResultsThree quarters of the Cambodian population and two thirds of the Laotian population live in relatively underserved provinces (those with resource densities in the lowest quintile across the region) in relation to health workers, ventilators, and hospital beds. More than a quarter of the Thai population is relatively underserved for health workers and oseltamivir. Approximately one fifth of the Vietnamese population is underserved for beds and ventilators. All Cambodian provinces are underserved for at least one resource. In Lao PDR, 11 percent of the population is underserved by all four resource items. Of the four resources, ventilators and oseltamivir were most unequally distributed. Cambodia generally showed higher levels of inequalities in resource distribution compared to other countries. Decomposition of the Theil index suggests that inequalities result principally from differences within, rather than between, countries.ConclusionsThere is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution within and across countries of the GMS. Most inequalities result from within countries. Given the inequalities, mismatches, and clustering of resources observed here, resource sharing and mobilization in a pandemic scenario could be crucial for more effective and equitable use of the resources that are available in the GMS.

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia

IntroductionHuman influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation.MethodsA health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates.ResultsGini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty.ConclusionsThere is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia.

Evaluation of the GeneXpert MTB/RIF in patients with presumptive tuberculous meningitis

Background Meningitis caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We evaluated the performance of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing with the GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay versus traditional approaches for diagnosing tuberculosis meningitis (TBM). Methods Patients were adults (n = 37) presenting with suspected TBM to the Hospital Nacional Dos de Mayo, Lima, Peru, during 12 months until 1st January 2015. Each participant had a single CSF specimen that was divided into aliquots that were concurrently tested for M. tuberculosis using GeneXpert, Ziehl-Neelsen smear and culture on solid and liquid media. Drug susceptibility testing used Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT 960) and the proportions method. Results 81% (30/37) of patients received a final clinical diagnosis of TBM, of whom 63% (19/30, 95% confidence intervals, CI: 44–80%) were HIV-positive. 22% (8/37, 95%CI: 9.8–38%), of patients had definite TBM. Because definite TBM was defined by positivity in any laboratory test, all laboratory tests had 100% specificity. Considering the 30 patients who had a clinical diagnosis of TBM: diagnostic sensitivity was 23% (7/30, 95%CI: 9.9–42%) for GeneXpert and was the same for all culture results combined; considerably greater than 7% (2/30, 95%CI: 0.82–22%) for microscopy; whereas all laboratory tests had poor negative predictive values (20–23%). Considering only the 8 patients with definite TBM: diagnostic sensitivity was 88% (7/8, 95%CI: 47–100%) for GeneXpert; 75% (6/8, 95%CI: 35–97%) for MGIT culture or LJ culture; 50% (4/8, 95%CI 16–84) for Ogawa culture and 25% (2/8, 95%CI: 3.2–65%) for microscopy. GeneXpert and microscopy provided same-day results, whereas culture took 20–56 days. GeneXpert provided same-day rifampicin-susceptibility results, whereas culture-based testing took 32–71 days. 38% (3/8, 95%CI: 8.5–76%) of patients with definite TBM with data had evidence of drug-resistant TB, but 73% (22/30) of all clinically diagnosed TBM (definite, probable, and possible TBM) had no drug-susceptibility results available. Conclusions Compared with traditional culture-based methods of CSF testing, GeneXpert had similar yield and faster results for both the detection of M. tuberculosis and drug-susceptibility testing. Including use of the GeneXpert has the capacity to improve the diagnosis of TBM cases.