Isaac Ginis

Real-Case Simulations of Hurricane–Ocean Interaction Using A High-Resolution Coupled Model: Effects on Hurricane Intensity

In order to investigate the effect of tropical cyclone‐ocean interaction on the intensity of observed hurricanes, the GFDL movable triply nested mesh hurricane model was coupled with a high-resolution version of the Princeton Ocean Model. The ocean model had 1 /68 uniform resolution, which matched the horizontal resolution of the hurricane model in its innermost grid. Experiments were run with and without inclusion of the coupling for two cases of Hurricane Opal (1995) and one case of Hurricane Gilbert (1988) in the Gulf of Mexico and two cases each of Hurricanes Felix (1995) and Fran (1996) in the western Atlantic. The results confirmed the conclusions suggested by the earlier idealized studies that the cooling of the sea surface induced by the tropical cyclone will have a significant impact on the intensity of observed storms, particularly for slow moving storms where the SST decrease is greater. In each of the seven forecasts, the ocean coupling led to substantial improvements in the prediction of storm intensity measured by the storm’s minimum sea level pressure. Without the effect of coupling the GFDL model incorrectly forecasted 25-hPa deepening of Gilbert as it moved across the Gulf of Mexico. With the coupling included, the model storm deepened only 10 hPa, which was much closer to the observed amount of 4 hPa. Similarly, during the period that Opal moved very slowly in the southern Gulf of Mexico, the coupled model produced a large SST decrease northwest of the Yucatan and slow deepening consistent with the observations. The uncoupled model using the initial NCEP SSTs predicted rapid deepening of 58 hPa during the same period. Improved intensity prediction was achieved both for Hurricanes Felix and Fran in the western Atlantic. For the case of Hurricane Fran, the coarse resolution of the NCEP SST analysis could not resolve Hurricane Edouard’s wake, which was produced when Edouard moved in nearly an identical path to Fran four days earlier. As a result, the operational GFDL forecast using the operational SSTs and without coupling incorrectly forecasted 40-hPa deepening while Fran remained at nearly constant intensity as it crossed the wake. When the coupled model was run with Edouard’s cold wake generated by imposing hurricane wind forcing during the ocean initialization, the intensity prediction was significantly improved. The model also correctly predicted the rapid deepening that occurred as Fran began to move away from the cold wake. These results suggest the importance of an accurate initial SST analysis as well as the inclusion of the ocean coupling, for accurate hurricane intensity prediction with a dynamical model. Recently, the GFDL hurricane‐ocean coupled model used in these case studies was run on 163 forecasts during the 1995‐98 seasons. Improved intensity forecasts were again achieved with the mean absolute error in the forecast of central pressure reduced by about 26% compared to the operational GFDL model. During the 1998 season, when the system was run in near‐real time, the coupled model improved the intensity forecasts for all storms with central pressure higher than 940 hPa although the most significant improvement (;60%) occurred in the intensity range of 960‐970 hPa. These much larger sample sets confirmed the conclusion from the case studies, that the hurricane‐ocean interaction is an important physical mechanism in the intensity of observed tropical cyclones.

Numerical simulations of tropical cyclone‐ocean interaction with a high‐resolution coupled model

The tropical cyclone-ocean interaction was investigated using a high-resolution tropical cyclone ocean coupled model. The model design consisted of the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory tropical cyclone prediction model which was coupled with a multilayer primitive equation ocean model. Coupling between the hurricane and the ocean models was carried out by passing into the ocean model the wind stress, heat, and moisture fluxes computed in the hurricane model. The new sea surface temperature (SST) calculated by the ocean model was then used in the tropical cyclone model. A set of idealized numerical experiments were performed in which a tropical cyclone vortex was embedded in both easterly and westerly basic flows of 2.5, 5, and 7.5 m s−1 with a fourth experiment run with no basic flow specified initially. The profile of the tangential wind for Hurricane Gloria at 1200 UTC 22, September 1985 was used as the initial condition of the tropical cyclone for each of the experiments. The model ocean was initially horizontally homogenous and quiescent. To clarify the impact of the ocean response to the hurricanes behavior, analogous experiments were also carried out with the SST kept constant (control cases). The experiments indicated that the cooling of the sea surface induced by the tropical cyclone resulted in a significant impact on the ultimate storm intensity due to the reduction of total heat flux directed into the tropical cyclone above the regions of decreased SST. The sea surface cooling produced by the tropical cyclones was found to be larger when the storms moved slower. In the experiments run without an initial basic flow, the maximum SST anomaly was about −5.6°C with a resulting difference in the minimum sea level pressure and maximum surface winds of 16.4 hPa and −7 m s−1, respectively. In contrast, in the experiments run with the 7.5 m s −1 basic flow, the maximum SST anomalies ranged from about 2.6° to 3.0°C with a difference in the minimum sea level pressure and maximum surface winds of about 7.3 hPa and −2.7 m s−1. The tropical cyclone-ocean coupling significantly influenced the storm track only for the case with no basic flow and the 2.5 m s−1 easterly flow. In these cases the storm with the ocean interaction turned more to the north and east (no basic flow) or the north (2.5 m s−1 easterly flow) of the experiments with constant SST. In the first case, the storm by 72 hours was located over 70 km to the east-southeast of the control case. A possible explanation for this track deviation is related to a systematic weakening of the mean tangential flow at all radii of the storm due to the interaction with the ocean and resulting alteration of the beta drift.

The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance

Abstract The past decade has been marked by significant advancements in numerical weather prediction of hurricanes, which have greatly contributed to the steady decline in forecast track error. Since its operational implementation by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in 1995, the best-track model performer has been NOAA’s regional hurricane model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to summarize the major upgrades to the GFDL hurricane forecast system since 1998. These include coupling the atmospheric component with the Princeton Ocean Model, which became operational in 2001, major physics upgrades implemented in 2003 and 2006, and increases in both the vertical resolution in 2003 and the horizontal resolution in 2002 and 2005. The paper will also report on the GFDL model performance for both track and intensity, focusing particularly on the 2003 through 2006 hurricane seasons. During this period, the GFDL track errors were the lowest of all the...

Effect of Surface Waves on Air–Sea Momentum Exchange. Part II: Behavior of Drag Coefficient under Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Present parameterizations of air–sea momentum flux at high wind speed, including hurricane wind forcing, are based on extrapolation from field measurements in much weaker wind regimes. They predict monotonic increase of drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed. Under hurricane wind forcing, the present numerical experiments using a coupled ocean wave and wave boundary layer model show that Cd at extreme wind speeds strongly depends on the wave field. Higher, longer, and more developed waves in the right-front quadrant of the storm produce higher sea drag; lower, shorter, and younger waves in the rear-left quadrant produce lower sea drag. Hurricane intensity, translation speed, as well as the asymmetry of wind forcing are major factors that determine the spatial distribution of Cd. At high winds above 30 m s−1, the present model predicts a significant reduction of Cd and an overall tendency to level off and even decrease with wind speed. This tendency is consistent with recent observational, experime...

A Physics-Based Parameterization of Air–Sea Momentum Flux at High Wind Speeds and Its Impact on Hurricane Intensity Predictions

Abstract A new bulk parameterization of the air–sea momentum flux at high wind speeds is proposed based on coupled wave–wind model simulations for 10 tropical cyclones that occurred in the Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2003. The new parameterization describes how the roughness length increases linearly with wind speed and the neutral drag coefficient tends to level off at high wind speeds. The proposed parameterization is then tested on real hurricanes using the operational Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled hurricane–ocean prediction model. The impact of the new parameterization on the hurricane prediction is mainly found in increased maximum surface wind speeds, while it does not appreciably affect the hurricane central pressure prediction. This helps to improve the GFDL model–predicted wind–pressure relationship in strong hurricanes. Attempts are made to provide physical explanations as to why the reduced drag coefficient affects surface wind speeds but not the central pressure in hurric...

Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Hurricane Intensities as Simulated in a Hurricane Model with Ocean Coupling

Abstract This study explores how a carbon dioxide (CO2) warming–induced enhancement of hurricane intensity could be altered by the inclusion of hurricane–ocean coupling. Simulations are performed using a coupled version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane prediction system in an idealized setting with highly simplified background flow fields. The large-scale atmospheric boundary conditions for these high-resolution experiments (atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles and SSTs) are derived from control and high-CO2 climatologies obtained from a low-resolution (R30) global coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model. The high-CO2 conditions are obtained from years 71–120 of a transient +1% yr−1 CO2-increase experiment with the global model. The CO2-induced SST changes from the global climate model range from +2.2° to +2.7°C in the six tropical storm basins studied. In the storm simulations, ocean coupling significantly reduces the intensity of simulated tropical cyclones, in accord with ...

A Sensitivity Study of the Thermodynamic Environment on GFDL Model Hurricane Intensity: Implications for Global Warming

In this study, the effect of thermodynamic environmental changes on hurricane intensity is extensively investigated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model for a suite of experiments with different initial upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies up to 648C and sea surface temperatures ranging from 268 to 318C given the same relative humidity profile. The results indicate that stabilization in the environmental atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) increase cause opposing effects on hurricane intensity. The offsetting relationship between the effects of atmospheric stability increase (decrease) and SST increase (decrease) is monotonic and systematic in the parameter space. This implies that hurricane intensity increase due to a possible global warming associated with increased CO2 is considerably smaller than that expected from warming of the oceanic waters alone. The results also indicate that the intensity of stronger (weaker) hurricanes is more (less) sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes. The model-attained hurricane intensity is found to be well correlated with the maximum surface evaporation and the large-scale environmental convective available potential energy. The model-attained hurricane intensity is highly correlated with the energy available from wet-adiabatic ascent near the eyewall relative to a reference sounding in the undisturbed environment for all the experiments. Coupled hurricane‐ocean experiments show that hurricane intensity becomes less sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes since the ocean coupling causes larger (smaller) intensity reduction for stronger (weaker) hurricanes. This implies less increase of hurricane intensity related to a possible global warming due to increased CO 2.

Limitation of One-Dimensional Ocean Models for Coupled Hurricane-Ocean Model Forecasts

Abstract Wind stress imposed on the upper ocean by a hurricane can limit the hurricane’s intensity primarily through shear-induced mixing of the upper ocean and subsequent cooling of the sea surface. Since shear-induced mixing is a one-dimensional process, some recent studies suggest that coupling a one-dimensional ocean model to a hurricane model may be sufficient for capturing the storm-induced sea surface temperature cooling in the region providing heat energy to the hurricane. Using both a one-dimensional and a three-dimensional version of the same ocean model, it is shown here that the neglect of upwelling, which can only be captured by a three-dimensional ocean model, underestimates the storm-core sea surface cooling for hurricanes translating at <∼5 m s−1. For hurricanes translating at <2 m s−1, more than half of the storm-core sea surface cooling is neglected by the one-dimensional ocean model. Since the majority of hurricanes in the western tropical North Atlantic Ocean translate at <5 m s−1, the...

The Effect of Wind-Wave-Current Interaction on Air-Sea Momentum Fluxes and Ocean Response in Tropical Cyclones

Abstract In this paper, the wind–wave–current interaction mechanisms in tropical cyclones and their effect on the surface wave and ocean responses are investigated through a set of numerical experiments. The key element of the authors’ modeling approach is the air–sea interface model, which consists of a wave boundary layer model and an air–sea momentum flux budget model. The results show that the time and spatial variations in the surface wave field, as well as the wave–current interaction, significantly reduce momentum flux into the currents in the right rear quadrant of the hurricane. The reduction of the momentum flux into the ocean consequently reduces the magnitude of the subsurface current and sea surface temperature cooling to the right of the hurricane track and the rate of upwelling/downwelling in the thermocline. During wind–wave–current interaction, the momentum flux into the ocean is mainly affected by reducing the wind speed relative to currents, whereas the wave field is mostly affected by ...

Effect of Surface Waves on Air–Sea Momentum Exchange. Part I: Effect of Mature and Growing Seas

The effect of surface waves on air‐sea momentum exchange over mature and growing seas is investigated by combining ocean wave models and a wave boundary layer model. The combined model estimates the wind stress by explicitly calculating the wave-induced stress. In the frequency range near the spectral peak, the NOAA/ NCEP surface wave model WAVEWATCH-III is used to estimate the spectra, while the spectra in the equilibrium range are determined by an analytical model. This approach allows for the estimation of the drag coefficient and the equivalent surface roughness for any surface wave fields. Numerical experiments are performed for constant winds from 10 to 45 m s21 to investigate the effect of mature and growing seas on air‐sea momentum exchange. For mature seas, the Charnock coefficient is estimated to be about 0.01; 0.02 and the drag coefficient increases as wind speed increases, both of which are within the range of previous observational data. With growing seas, results for winds less than 30 m s 21 show that the drag coefficient is larger for younger seas, which is consistent with earlier studies. For winds higher than 30 m s 21, however, results show a different trend; that is, very young waves yield less drag. This is because the wave-induced stress due to very young waves makes a small contribution to the total wind stress in very high wind conditions.