Isaac Sasson

Trends and group differences in the association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality: Implications for understanding education's causal influence

Has the shape of the association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality changed in recent decades? If so, is it changing consistently across demographic groups? What can changes in the shape of the association tell us about the possible mechanisms in play for improving health and lowering mortality risk over the adult life course? This paper develops the argument that societal technological change may have had profound effects on the importance of educational attainment - particularly advanced education - in the U.S. adult population for garnering health advantages and that these changes should be reflected in changes in the functional form of the association between educational attainment and mortality. We review the historical evidence on the changing functional form of the association, drawing on studies based in the United States, to assess whether these changes are consistent with our argument about the role of technological change. We also provide an updated analysis of these functional form patterns and trends, contrasting data from the early 21st Century with data from the late 20th Century. This updated evidence suggests that the shape of the association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality appears to be reflecting lower and lower adult mortality for very highly educated Americans compared to their low-educated counterparts in the 21st Century. We draw on this review and updated evidence to reflect on the question whether educations association with adult mortality has become increasingly causal in recent decades, why, and the potential research, policy, and global implications of these changes.

Widowhood and Depression: New Light on Gender Differences, Selection, and Psychological Adjustment

OBJECTIVES To document short- and long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms following widowhood and to test whether these trajectories vary by gender and anticipatory spousal loss. METHOD Eight waves of prospective panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, over a 14-year period, are used to evaluate gender differences in depressive symptoms following widowhood in late midlife. Short-term trajectories are modeled using a linear regression of change in Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) score on duration of widowhood. Long-term trajectories are modeled using a mixed-effects hierarchical linear model of CES-D scores over time. RESULTS We find no gender differences in bereavement effects on depressive symptoms in either short or long term, net of widowhood duration. When spousal death is anticipated, both men and women return to their prewidowhood levels of depressive symptoms within 24 months of becoming widowed. Across marital groups, the continuously married are better off compared with the widowed even prior to spousal loss, whereas early, long-term widowhood is associated with worse outcomes compared with late widowhood. DISCUSSION Although men and women do not differ in trajectories of depressive symptoms following widowhood, given similar circumstances, women are distinctly disadvantaged in that they are more likely to become widowed and under less favorable conditions.

Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment: United States, 1990–2010

The educational gradient in life expectancy is well documented in the United States and in other low-mortality countries. Highly educated Americans, on average, live longer than their low-educated counterparts, who have recently seen declines in adult life expectancy. However, limiting the discussion on lifespan inequality to mean differences alone overlooks other dimensions of inequality and particularly disparities in lifespan variation. The latter represents a unique form of inequality, with higher variation translating into greater uncertainty in the time of death from an individual standpoint, and higher group heterogeneity from a population perspective. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System from 1990 to 2010, this is the first study to document trends in both life expectancy and S25—the standard deviation of age at death above 25—by educational attainment. Among low-educated whites, adult life expectancy declined by 3.1 years for women and by 0.6 years for men. At the same time, S25 increased by about 1.5 years among high school–educated whites of both genders, becoming an increasingly important component of total lifespan inequality. By contrast, college-educated whites benefited from rising life expectancy and record low variation in age at death, consistent with the shifting mortality scenario. Among blacks, adult life expectancy increased, and S25 plateaued or declined in nearly all educational attainment groups, although blacks generally lagged behind whites of the same gender on both measures. Documenting trends in lifespan variation can therefore improve our understanding of lifespan inequality and point to diverging trajectories in adult mortality across socioeconomic strata.

Mortality and kidnapping estimates for the Yazidi population in the area of Mount Sinjar, Iraq, in August 2014: A retrospective household survey

Background In August 2014, the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) attacked the Yazidi religious minority living in the area of Mount Sinjar in Nineveh governorate, Iraq. We conducted a retrospective household survey to estimate the number and demographic profile of Yazidis killed and kidnapped. Methods and findings The survey covered the displaced Yazidi population from Sinjar residing in camps in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Fieldwork took place between 4 November and 25 December, 2015. A systematic random sample of 1,300 in-camp households were interviewed about the current household composition and any killings and kidnappings of household members by ISIS. Of the 1,300 interviewed households, 988 were Yazidi from Sinjar. Yazidi households contained 6,572 living residents at the time of the survey; 43 killings and 83 kidnappings of household members were reported. We calculated the probability of being killed and kidnapped by dividing the number of reported killings and kidnappings by the number of sampled Yazidis at risk, adjusting for sampling design. To obtain the overall toll of killings and kidnappings, those probabilities were multiplied by the total Yazidi population living in Sinjar at the time of the ISIS attack, estimated at roughly 400,000 by the United Nations and Kurdish officials. The demographic profile of those killed and kidnapped was examined, distinguishing between children and adults and females and males. We estimated that 2.5% of the Yazidi population was either killed or kidnapped over the course of a few days in August 2014, amounting to 9,900 (95% CI 7,000–13,900) people in total. An estimated 3,100 (95% CI 2,100–4,400) Yazidis were killed, with nearly half of them executed—either shot, beheaded, or burned alive—while the rest died on Mount Sinjar from starvation, dehydration, or injuries during the ISIS siege. The estimated number kidnapped is 6,800 (95% CI 4,200–10,800). Escapees recounted the abuses they had suffered, including forced religious conversion, torture, and sex slavery. Over one-third of those reported kidnapped were still missing at the time of the survey. All Yazidis were targeted regardless of age and sex, but children were disproportionately affected. They were as likely as adults to be executed but constituted 93.0% (95% CI 71.9–98.6) of those who died on Mount Sinjar. Moreover, children only accounted for 18.8% (95% CI 8.4–36.9) of those who managed to escape captivity. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the actual toll of killings and kidnappings may be underestimated in our data because of survival bias. The uncertainty associated with inference from a small sample of in-camp households and the reliance on a rough figure of 400,000 for extrapolation to the total Yazidi population of Sinjar at the time of the ISIS attack are the main limitations of this study. Conclusions Consistent with other existing evidence, our data provide a clear indication of the severity of the ISIS attack against the Yazidis in terms of both the number and demographic profile of those targeted.

Diverging Trends in Cause-Specific Mortality and Life Years Lost by Educational Attainment: Evidence from United States Vital Statistics Data, 1990-2010

Background Life expectancy at birth in the United States will likely surpass 80 years in the coming decade. Yet recent studies suggest that longevity gains are unevenly shared across age and socioeconomic groups. First, mortality in midlife has risen among non-Hispanic whites. Second, low-educated whites have suffered stalls (men) or declines (women) in adult life expectancy, which is significantly lower than among their college-educated counterparts. Estimating the number of life years lost or gained by age and cause of death, broken down by educational attainment, is crucial in identifying vulnerable populations. Methods and Findings Using U.S. vital statistics data from 1990 to 2010, this study decomposes the change in life expectancy at age 25 by age and cause of death across educational attainment groups, broken down by race and gender. The findings reveal that mortality in midlife increased for white women (and to a lesser extent men) with 12 or fewer years of schooling, accounting for most of the stalls or declines in adult life expectancy observed in those groups. Among blacks, mortality declined in nearly all age and educational attainment groups. Although an educational gradient was found across multiple causes of death, between 60 and 80 percent of the gap in adult life expectancy was explained by cardiovascular diseases, smoking-related diseases, and external causes of death. Furthermore, the number of life years lost to smoking-related, external, and other causes of death increased among low- and high school-educated whites, explaining recent stalls or declines in longevity. Conclusions Large segments of the American population—particularly low- and high school-educated whites under age 55—are diverging from their college-educated counterparts and losing additional years of life to smoking-related diseases and external causes of death. If this trend continues, old-age mortality may also increase for these birth cohorts in the coming decades.

Reply to Trends in Education-Specific Life Expectancy, Data Quality, and Shifting Education Distributions: A Note on Recent Research

Replication studies are commendable: no single study should be taken at face value. Nevertheless, replications should be approached with an equal amount of healthy skepticism. I turned to the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) first when writing the original paper (Sasson 2016a) and found it too limited for studying trends in life expectancy and higher-order life table functions by education—particularly for U.S. minority groups. Unfortunately, the NHIS suffers from two notable sources of error that seem to outweigh the benefits of more accurate education reporting: (1) systematic error, in that its population is significantly healthier than the U.S. population, irrespective of education; and (2) random error, whereby considerable sampling variability prohibits any meaningful inference about trends in lifespan variation. Based on new results presented in this reply, I maintain that the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), in spite of its known limitations, remains the single most comprehensive data source for studying trends in lifespan variation by education. As for trends in life expectancy by education for non-Hispanic whites, I contend that the findings reported in Sasson (2016a) are in fact in line with previous studies based on NHIS data (e.g., Montez et al. 2011; Montez and Zajacova 2013), showing rising mortality among low-educated white American women but only minor changes among low-educated white men from 1990 to 2010. The discrepancies Hendi reported largely stem from ignoring sampling variability, owing to small sample sizes and changes too small in magnitude to detect. Furthermore, one cannot reject the findings I presented (Sasson 2016a) while accepting those of Case and Deaton (2015)—as Hendi suggested, with both studies relying on NVSS data—because our findings are one and the same. As I have shown elsewhere (Sasson 2016b), the rise in midlife mortality, coupled with continued declines in old-age mortality, is precisely the reason for the increase in Demography DOI 10.1007/s13524-017-0583-1

Declining US Life Expectancy, 1990–2010

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Educational Differences in the Prevalence of Dementia and Life Expectancy with Dementia: Changes from 2000 to 2010

Objectives This article provides the first estimates of educational differences in age-specific prevalence, and changes in prevalence over time, of dementia by education levels in the United States. It also provides information on life expectancy, and changes in life expectancy, with dementia and cognitively healthy life for educational groups. Method Data on cognition from the 2000 and 2010 Health and Retirement Study are used to classify respondents as having dementia, cognitive impairment without dementia (CIND), or being cognitively intact. Vital statistics data are used to estimate life tables for education groups and the Sullivan method is used to estimate life expectancy by cognitive state. Results People with more education have lower prevalence of dementia, more years of cognitively healthy life, and fewer years with dementia. Years spent in good cognition increased for most sex-education groups and, conversely, years spent with dementia decreased for some. Mortality reduction was the most important factor in increasing cognitively healthy life. Change in the distribution of educational attainment has played a major role in the reduction of life with dementia in the overall population. Discussion Differences in the burden of cognitive loss by education point to the significant cost of low social status both to individuals and to society.

Does the Functional Form of the Association Between Education and Mortality Differ by U.S. Region

ABSTRACT To understand the education–mortality association among U.S. adults, recent studies have documented its national functional form. However, the functional form of education–mortality relationship may vary across geographic contexts. The four U.S. Census regions differ considerably in their social and economic policies, employment opportunities, income levels, and other factors that may affect how education lowers the risk of mortality. Thus, we documented regional differences in the functional form of the education–mortality association and examined the role of employment and income in accounting for regional differences. We used data on non-Hispanic white adults (2,981,672, person years) aged 45–84 in the 2000–2009 National Health Interview Survey, with Linked Mortality File through 2011 (37,598 deaths) and estimated discrete-time hazard models. The functional form of education and adult mortality was best characterized by credentialism in the Midwest, Northeast, and for Western men. For Western women, the association was linear, consistent with the human capital model. In the South, we observed a combination of mechanisms, with mortality risk declining with each year of schooling and a step change with high school graduation, followed by steeper decline thereafter. Our work adds to the increasing body of research that stresses the importance of contexts in shaping the education–mortality relationship.