Isabelle Chort

Determinants of Mexico-U.S. Outward and Return Migration Flows: A State-Level Panel Data Analysis

Using a unique panel data set of state-to-state outward and return migration flows between Mexico and the United States from 1995 to 2012, this study is the first to analyze Mexico-U.S. migration at the state level and explore simultaneously the effect of economic, environmental, and social factors in Mexico over two decades. Pairing origin and destination states and controlling for a rich structure of fixed effects, we find that income positively impacts migration outflows, especially for Mexican states of origin with a recent migration history and for low-educated migrant flows, suggesting the existence of credit constraints. We find evidence that drought causes more out-migration, while other climatic shocks have no effect. Violence is found to increase out-migration flows from border states and to decrease migration from other Mexican states, especially where violence is directed at migrants. Last, return flows are larger when income growth at destination is lower, consistent with the accumulation of savings as a primary motivation of migrants. Exploring the impact of the crisis, we find evidence of significant changes in the geography of migration flows. Traditional flows are drying up, and new migration corridors are rising, with implications on the composition of the Mexican population in the United States. Although the effect of income on flows in both directions is unchanged by the crisis, the negative effect of violence on out-migration tends to reverse at the end of the period. Overall, this study emphasizes the interest of analyzing disaggregated flows at the infra-country level.

You’ll Be a Migrant, My Son: Accounting for Migrant Selection within the Household

This paper presents a theoretical model to account for household-based migration decisions and derives its implications for migrant selection within the household. Unlike individual selection models, a household model allows us to account for the role played by future remittances, along with earnings differentials, in shaping intrahousehold selection patterns of migrants. We develop a structural estimation procedure based on an extension of the Roy-Dahl model and provide an empirical application using original matched data on Senegalese migrants in three host countries and their household of origin in Senegal. We exploit information on Koranic schooling and birth rank to predict migrants’ remittance potential. Our results show that, conditional on earnings, household members with the highest remittance potential have a higher propensity to be selected into migration, consistent with the predictions of our household model.

Migrant Network and Immigrants’ Occupational Mismatch

Abstract This article defines new measures of horizontal and vertical occupational mismatch based on the difference between the skill content of occupations in which individuals have a self-assessed productive advantage, and that of their actual job. It then investigates the impact of network use to find a job on occupational mismatch in the case of immigrants, using original survey data collected among Senegalese immigrants in four host countries. Estimation results show that migrants who obtained their job through the migrant network have a lower probability of negative vertical mismatch. By contrast, network use is not found to significantly affect horizontal mismatch.