Isabelle Rabaud

The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle : a Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach

This paper proposes an original framework to determine the relative influence of fivefactors on the Feldstein and Horioka result of OECD countries with a strong saving-investment association. Based on panel threshold regression models, we establishcountry-specific and time-specific saving retention coefficients for 24 OECD coun-tries over the period 1960-2000. These coefficients are assumed to change smoothly,as a function of five threshold variables, considered as the most important in theliterature devoted to the Feldstein and Horioka puzzle. The results show that; de-gree of openness, country size and current account to GDP ratios have the greatestinfluence on the investment-saving relationship.

Measuring the Costs and Benefits of Liberalization of Trade in Services: Lessons for Regional Integration and Sectoral Policies

This paper draws insights from the literature on Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modeling of potential gains from liberalization for developing countries, in particular Northern, Eastern and Southern African economies. Due to the importance of regulatory framework and to the size of service industries, substantial potential gains are expected from liberalization, by accession to WTO, regional, preferential or bilateral trade agreements. However, it seems that attention should be focused on the specificity of each region and country and that a sectoral approach is necessary. Regarding the choice between multilateral, bilateral or regional liberalization, the optimal framework depends on service industries. Institutions particularly matter for services and reforms should be global and focused. Domestic reforms are necessary prior to trade liberalization.

Location of Services in Mediterranean Countries and NMS

Based on New Economic Geography theory, this paper aims at highlighting location of services industries in Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPC) at comparing it with the location of these services in the EU15 and NMS and at assessing whether or not agglomeration economies were its cause. Therefore, we rely on Gini coefficient to measure the degree of concentration and analyse the actual and potential effect of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. Services appear more evenly distributed inside trade areas (EU15, NMS and MPC) than within the Euro-Mediterranean zone: convergence is much slower there. Concentration is time-decreasing when the EU is included. Financial intermediation and business services are the most agglomerated activities. Location of services diverges between the EU and NEPC (Neighbourhood European Policy Countries). Labour-intensive business services predominate within the NEPC, whereas high value-added services are still poorly implemented there. The MPC have not yet begun to catch up with the EU15 or with the NMS. Insofar as key enabling services develop by waves, some southern Mediterranean countries may lag behind others. The EC should carefully seek to avoid such increases in inequalities within the MPC.