Isard Walter

The Old City of Jerusalem As a Tourist International Magnet: An Initial Proposal for A First Step Cooperation in the Middle East

Copyright c ©2002 by the authors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher, bepress, which has been given certain exclusive rights by the author. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy is produced by Berkeley Electronic Press (bepress). http://www.bepress.com/peps

A Jordan/West Bank Development Proposal

of Outsourcing Proposal for Palestinians at a Jordan Location 1. At the start employ 50 Palestinian workers from West Bank and Jordan at outsourcing at an annual wage of

A Cooperative Analysis Procedure for Use by Diplomats and Negotiators: With a Proposed Step for Resolving Conflict on the Korean Peninsula

4,000. 2. Have an Arab firm(s) as employer, for example Jordan Telecom Portal or Dubai Internet City or a combination of the two, or other Arab enterprise arrangement. 3. Given the extremely rapid increase of worldwide outsourcing work (growth, at a scorching speed; N.Y. Times, 8/18/04, C1), promote expansion of outsourcing at the Jordan location to employ within 2-3 years 5,000 Palestinian workers at half the Indian wage and 25,000 within 4-5 years . The profits of the Arab enterprise could be significant. 4. Assist the development of stores, shops and other non-outsourcing enterprises at the Jordan and West Bank locations to realize an income multiplier of at least 3. Such would lead to a total of 75,000 new jobs in the greater Jordan and West Bank area. 5. Promote trade with Israel, Egypt and other Arab areas having in mind the far distant goal of establishing a Middle East Union. 1 The author wishes to acknowledge valuable assistance from Dr. Tadayuki Hara in collecting empirical materials. PEPS Vol. 10. No. 2. Summer 2004 Isard: A Jordan/West Bank Development Proposalof Outsourcing Proposal for Palestinians at a Jordan Location 1. At the start employ 50 Palestinian workers from West Bank and Jordan at outsourcing at an annual wage of

Some Theoretical Thoughts on Constructing a Poverty-Eliminating Social Accounts Bill of Goods

4,000. 2. Have an Arab firm(s) as employer, for example Jordan Telecom Portal or Dubai Internet City or a combination of the two, or other Arab enterprise arrangement. 3. Given the extremely rapid increase of worldwide outsourcing work (growth, at a scorching speed; N.Y. Times, 8/18/04, C1), promote expansion of outsourcing at the Jordan location to employ within 2-3 years 5,000 Palestinian workers at half the Indian wage and 25,000 within 4-5 years . The profits of the Arab enterprise could be significant. 4. Assist the development of stores, shops and other non-outsourcing enterprises at the Jordan and West Bank locations to realize an income multiplier of at least 3. Such would lead to a total of 75,000 new jobs in the greater Jordan and West Bank area. 5. Promote trade with Israel, Egypt and other Arab areas having in mind the far distant goal of establishing a Middle East Union. 1 The author wishes to acknowledge valuable assistance from Dr. Tadayuki Hara in collecting empirical materials. 1 Isard: A Jordan/West Bank Development Proposal

A Proposal for North/South Korea Cooperation That Proved Effective: A Plea for More Multi-Analytic Approaches in Conflict Management

This paper is concerned with the development of a cooperative analysis approach for use by Diplomats and Negotiators in resolving certain difficult conflicts. It employs concepts from economics and peace science without any diminution of the urgent need for superb diplomacy and negotiations skills. Its potential use for resolving the major conflict in the Korean peninsula is explored. A policy option is set forth involving a small withdrawal of North Korean troops from North Korea’s Eastern DMZ border for economic development in that area of North Korea without any reduction whatsoever of the North Korean military power. For each party involved, benefits significantly greater than costs are found for this policy.

The Old City of Jerusalem as a Tourist International Magnet: An Initial Proposal for a First Step Cooperation in the Middle East. Part II: Projection of Decrease in Hostilities and Terrorist Activity

It is unnecessary for us to point out that there has emerged a new type of warfare that is employed by terrorist organizations and that the continued and even greater poverty conditions of many regions of the world contribute to the growth of the terrorists’ activities. This negative outcome has suggested to us the importance of eliminating as much as possible the extent of poverty among these regions, and ideally of course to eliminate all poverty. This is a major task. In essence the problem is to establish what may be designated a povertyeliminating Bill of Goods for these regions. Unfortunately the Social Accounts data are scarce for constructing such a Bill of Goods. However, until we can do so, even crudely, we can hardly proceed with this goal of eliminating poverty. In our search for data, we have found little adequate materials. For the United States an excellent set of consumption coefficients by income group and major categories of commodities has been developed by Rose and Beaumont (1989). In addition there are extensive social accounts data developed by Thorbecke, his associates and students, and by others (Thorbecke 1998). Further, much data work has been done by the IMPLAN Group (2000). These record the consumption (expenditure) data by income class or institutions and often proceed to examine poverty alleviation policies. However, they say relatively little about poverty elimination based on the construction of relevant Bills of Goods for poverty groups. Working Paper Some Theoretical Thoughts on Constructing a PovertyEliminating Social Accounts Bill of Goods Walter Isard, Cornell University Tadayuki Hara, Cornell University It is unnecessary for us to point out that there has emerged a new type of warfare that is employed by terrorist organizations and that the continued and even greater poverty conditions of many regions of the world contribute to the growth of the terrorists’ activities. This negative outcome has suggested to us the importance of eliminating as much as possible the extent of poverty among these regions, and ideally of course to eliminate all poverty. This is a major task. In essence the problem is to establish what may be designated a poverty-eliminating Bill of Goods for these regions. Unfortunately the Social Accounts data are scarce for constructing such a Bill of Goods. However, until we can do so, even crudely, we can hardly proceed with this goal of eliminating poverty. In our search for data, we have found little adequate materials. For the United States an excellent set of consumption coefficients by income group and major categories of commodities has been developed by Rose and Beaumont (1989). In addition there are extensive social accounts data developed by Thorbecke, his associates and students, and by others (Thorbecke 1998). Further, much data work has been done by the IMPLAN Group (2000). These record the consumption (expenditure) data by income class or institutions and often proceed to examine poverty alleviation policies. However, they say relatively little about poverty elimination based on the construction of relevant Bills of Goods for poverty groups. 1 Department of Economics and Regional Science and Peace Science programs, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853 2 School of Hotel Administration, Regional Science program, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, Phone (607) 255-1078, E-mail: th94@cornell.edu 1 Isard and Hara: A Poverty-Eliminating Social Accounts Bill of Goods PEPS Vol. 9. No.2&3 Summer 2003 Isard and Hara: Constructing a Poverty-Eliminating Social Accounts Bill of Goods 36 In the authors’ attempt to begin to do so for the poverty-stricken Palestinian society, we find it very useful first to examine the problem theoretically as we do in this

Historical Material on the Formative and Early Years of the Peace Science Society (International)

This statement supplements the rationale of the 1997 Isard/Azis proposal1 to initiate a resolution of the then current bitter conflict between North and South Koreas. The proposals and initiatives of the U.S., Japan, other nations and the U.N. had reached a stalemate. The Isard/Azis proposal pertained to a very small cooperative effort between North Korea and South Korea. It involved a small economic development within (or close by) the far eastern section of the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) lying within North Korea.This statement supplements the rationale of the 1997 Isard/Azis proposal1 to initiate a resolution of the then current bitter conflict between North and South Koreas. The proposals and initiatives of the U.S., Japan, other nations and the U.N. had reached a stalemate. The Isard/Azis proposal pertained to a very small cooperative effort between North Korea and South Korea. It involved a small economic development within (or close by) the far eastern section of the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) lying within North Korea. PEPS Vol. 6. No. 3. Summer 2000 Isard and Chung: A Proposal for North/South Korea Cooperation 1 A Proposal for North/South Korea Cooperation That Proved Effective: A Plea for More Multi-Analytic Approaches in Conflict Management Walter Isard and Yun Ho Chung Cornell University

A Preliminary Report on a Possible Proposal to Begin to Break the Kashmir Stalemate: A Relative Utility Approach

Copyright c ©2003 by the authors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher, bepress, which has been given certain exclusive rights by the author. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy is produced by Berkeley Electronic Press (bepress). http://www.bepress.com/peps

Mediation Analysis: The Use of Regional Science Methods to Resolve Conflicts

In his presidential address, October 1998 on Formative and Early Years of the Peace Science Society (International), it was not possible for the author to include a number of important items required for a full appreciation of the setting and the organizational dynamics of that critical period, 1959-1965. In this paper, we cover materials, as a set of Appendices, to that address to supplement its contents.

Art and Science on Nuancing Conflict, with Particular Reference to Developed and Developing Nations

This paper is another one to point up the usefulness of the relative utility approach in conflict management. In this case, it relates to the problem of stalemate. In this approach, each party involved is asked to identify the objectives which it perceives as relevant to it in considering any joint action that might lead to cooperation or tempering of the conflict. From their statements on objectives, cues and insights may be obtained on how to get around their stances on issues – stances (often very heated) that have resulted in the existing stalemate. The objectives, of course, often lie behind the issues. Typically, the greater the disaggregation (the specificity) of each party’s objectives, particularly when hierarchically ordered, the more cues and useful insights that can result.This paper is another one to point up the usefulness of the relative utility approach in conflict management. In this case, it relates to the problem of stalemate. In this approach, each party involved is asked to identify the objectives which it perceives as relevant to it in considering any joint action that might lead to cooperation or tempering of the conflict. From their statements on objectives, cues and insights may be obtained on how to get around their stances on issues – stances (often very heated) that have resulted in the existing stalemate. The objectives, of course, often lie behind the issues. Typically, the greater the disaggregation (the specificity) of each party’s objectives, particularly when hierarchically ordered, the more cues and useful insights that can result. Once the objectives of a given party are identified, each party is asked to make pairwise comparisons of its objectives in order to obtain the relative importance of them. When there are logical inconsistences in their pairwise comparisons, this can be brought to the party’s attention, and often the party will adjust its statements to eliminate these inconsistences. But even when the party prefers not to do so, their statements can still be very useful. This brings up the point that both art and science are involved in effective mediation and management of conflict. It is, after all, the perceptions of the parties that matter, and not the views and knowledge of the mediator or third party trying to manage a conflict. And if in this way a joint action that leads to cooperation is found acceptable, it does not matter that it is not consistent with scientific knowledge. (Often science is based on logic and rationality that frequently are not characteristic of conflict behavior; and too often science is based on unrealistic assumptions, of which a scientist is often unaware.) Cues and insights that are derived directly or indirectly (even very indirectly) from pairwise comparisons may lead to wild ideas – ideas that observers of the conflict may consider far from reality, nonsensical, impractical, unscientific and the like, and often as failing to address conflict issues directly. This may be so even when the wild idea can be combined effectively with scientific concepts and knowledge to increase the probability of finding useful joint actions. But even by itself, a seemingly wild idea can generate a series of steps, perhaps at first far withdrawn from the issues, which in time is able to break the stalemate and lead to effective cooperation and major reduction, if not elimination, of the conflict. In the Kashmir study we come up with an idea initially viewed as very wild. From discussion with knowledgeable persons and with further thought, this idea was modified and gradually strengthened. We now offer it as a possible approach to joint activity that does not directly attack the Kashmir stalemate but has a real potential to lead to a series of small steps that in toto can help significantly to break this stalemate of long standing. PEPS Vol. 6. No. 4. Fall 2000 Isard and Chung: A Proposal to Break the Kashmir Stalemate 1 A Preliminary Report on a Possible Proposal to Begin to Break the Kashmir Stalemate: A Relative Utility Approach Walter Isard and Yun Ho Chung Cornell University