Itzhak Jacoby

Gastroenterology Workforce Modeling

OBJECTIVEnTo examine the current supply and distribution of gastroenterologists and project future supply under various scenarios to provide a paradigm for workforce reform.nnnDESIGNnAn analysis of current practices and distribution of gastroenterologists and a demographic model, using the 1992 gastroenterology workforce as a baseline.nnnMAIN OUTCOME MEASUREnComparison of current supply, distribution, and practice profiles with past data and future projections, using analyses of data from the 1993 Area Resource File, 1992 Medicare Part B file, age- and sex-specific death and retirement rates from the Bureau of Health Professions, managed care staffing patterns, the National Survey of Internal Medicine Manpower, and the Bureau of the Census.nnnRESULTSnRapid growth in the number of US gastroenterologists has resulted in a gastroenterologist-to-population ratio double that used on average by health maintenance organizations. In addition, the work profile of gastroenterologists is shared significantly by primary care physicians and other specialists, with the exception of a few specific and uncommon procedures.nnnCONCLUSIONSnEmpirical evidence suggests that, even in the absence of detailed models to describe the desired supply/need balance for gastroenterology, the US health care system and clinicians may benefit from a reduction in gastroenterology training programs. The Gastroenterology Leadership Council endorsed a goal of 25% to 50% reduction in trainee numbers over 5 years, and recent National Resident Matching Program data indicate that a voluntary downsizing process is in full force. This study illustrates a paradigm for workforce planning that could be useful for other medical specialties.

Modeling the future workforce of obstetrics and gynecology

Objective To examine the current supply and distribution of obstetrician-gynecologists and project future supply under various scenarios. Methods A discrete actuarial supply model was developed, and practice patterns were analyzed. Supply projections under different scenarios, distributions, and practice profiles were examined. Results Women are expected to become the majority of practitioners by 2014. Continuation of current residency output will result in slow to no growth in obstetrician-gynecologist-to-female population ratios over the next 20 years. A minor (10%) reduction in specialty training would slow specialty growth over the next decade, followed by a slight reduction in supply. Services provided chiefly involve ambulatory reproductive health care, pregnancy, and surgical correction of conditions specific to the female genitourinary system. Even though the proportion of deliveries performed by midwives has increased and family practitioners have maintained their share, obstetrician-gynecologists provide the vast majority of obstetric care and virtually all services for perinatal complications. Generalist services represent relatively minor aspects of their practices. Care of the aged female population is highly fragmented among specialties; more than 50% of all aged Medicare beneficiaries who saw an obstetrician-gynecologist at least once failed to receive a majority of services from any one physician specialty. Conclusion On the basis of trends in patient demographics and care patterns, obstetrician-gynecologists must resolve whether to provide more generalist office-based care, especially to the rapidly growing older female population, or to invest more intensively in surgical specialty care. The specialtys unique contributions to womens health should influence this decision.

The workforce in otolaryngology-head and neck surgery: moving into the next millennium.

OBJECTIVE: The goal was to examine the current scope of otolaryngologists’ practices, their geographic distribution, and the roles otolaryngologists and other specialists play in caring for patients with otolaryngic and related conditions of the head and neck. STUDY DESIGN: A large national survey and administrative claims databases were examined to develop practice profiles and compile a physician supply for otolaryngology. A focus group of otolaryngologists provided information to model future scenarios. RESULTS: The current and predicted workforce supply and demographics are at a satisfactory level and are decreasing as a proportion of the increasing population. Empiric data analysis supports the diverse nature of an otolaryngologists practice and the unique role for otolaryngologists that is not shared by many other providers. Together with the focus group results, the study points to areas for which more background and training are warranted. CONCLUSIONS: This study represents a first step in a process to form coherent workforce recommendations for the field of otolaryngology.

Clinical decision analysis as a means of technology assessment. The effectiveness of intraoperative cholangiography.

Three strategies for timely detection of common duct stones are examined by decision analysis: the use of intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) in ALL, NONE, or in SOME of the cases that are selected by the estimated probability of a common duct stone. Selective use of IOC is the most cost-effective option and offers a slightly lower mortality risk.