Ivana Sestak

Effect of anastrozole and tamoxifen as adjuvant treatment for early-stage breast cancer: 10-year analysis of the ATAC trial

BACKGROUND The Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial was designed to compare the efficacy and safety of anastrozole (1 mg) with tamoxifen (20 mg), both given orally every day for 5 years, as adjuvant treatment for postmenopausal women with early-stage breast cancer. In this analysis, we assess the long-term outcomes after a median follow-up of 120 months. METHODS We used a proportional hazards model to assess the primary endpoint of disease-free survival, and the secondary endpoints of time to recurrence, time to distant recurrence, incidence of new contralateral breast cancer, overall survival, and death with or without recurrence in all randomised patients (anastrozole n=3125, tamoxifen n=3116) and hormone-receptor-positive patients (anastrozole n=2618, tamoxifen n=2598). After treatment completion, we continued to collect data on fractures and serious adverse events in a masked fashion (safety population: anastrozole n=3092, tamoxifen n=3094). This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN18233230. FINDINGS Patients were followed up for a median of 120 months (range 0-145); there were 24,522 woman-years of follow-up in the anastrozole group and 23,950 woman-years in the tamoxifen group. In the full study population, there were significant improvements in the anastrozole group compared with the tamoxifen group for disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0·91, 95% CI 0·83-0·99; p=0·04), time to recurrence (0·84, 0·75-0·93; p=0·001), and time to distant recurrence (0·87, 0·77-0·99; p=0·03). For hormone-receptor-positive patients, the results were also significantly in favour of the anastrozole group for disease-free survival (HR 0·86, 95% CI 0·78-0·95; p=0·003), time to recurrence (0·79, 0·70-0·89; p=0·0002), and time to distant recurrence (0·85, 0·73-0·98; p=0·02). In hormone-receptor-positive patients, absolute differences in time to recurrence between anastrozole and tamoxifen increased over time (2·7% at 5 years and 4·3% at 10 years) and recurrence rates remained significantly lower on anastrozole than tamoxifen after treatment completion (HR 0·81, 95% CI 0·67-0·98; p=0·03), although the carryover benefit was smaller after 8 years. There was weak evidence of fewer deaths after recurrence with anastrozole compared with tamoxifen treatment in the hormone-receptor-positive subgroup (HR 0·87, 95% CI 0·74-1·02; p=0·09), but there was little difference in overall mortality (0·95, 95% CI 0·84-1·06; p=0·4). Fractures were more frequent during active treatment in patients receiving anastrozole than those receiving tamoxifen (451 vs 351; OR 1·33, 95% CI 1·15-1·55; p<0·0001), but were similar in the post-treatment follow-up period (110 vs 112; OR 0·98, 95% CI 0·74-1·30; p=0·9). Treatment-related serious adverse events were less common in the anastrozole group than the tamoxifen group (223 anastrozole vs 369 tamoxifen; OR 0·57, 95% CI 0·48-0·69; p<0·0001), but were similar after treatment completion (66 vs 78; OR 0·84, 95% CI 0·60-1·19; p=0·3). No differences in non-breast cancer causes of death were apparent and the incidence of other cancers was similar between groups (425 vs 431) and continue to be higher with anastrozole for colorectal (66 vs 44) and lung cancer (51 vs 34), and lower for endometrial cancer (six vs 24), melanoma (eight vs 19), and ovarian cancer (17 vs 28). No new safety concerns were reported. INTERPRETATION These data confirm the long-term superior efficacy and safety of anastrozole over tamoxifen as initial adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal women with hormone-sensitive early breast cancer.

Comparison of PAM50 Risk of Recurrence Score With Oncotype DX and IHC4 for Predicting Risk of Distant Recurrence After Endocrine Therapy

PURPOSE Risk of distant recurrence (DR) among women with estrogen receptor (ER) -positive early breast cancer is the major determinant of recommendations for or against chemotherapy. It is frequently estimated using the Oncotype DX recurrence score (RS). The PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) score provides an alternative approach, which also identifies intrinsic subtypes. PATIENTS AND METHODS mRNA from 1,017 patients with ER-positive primary breast cancer treated with anastrozole or tamoxifen in the ATAC trial was assessed for ROR using the NanoString nCounter. Likelihood ratio (LR) tests and concordance indices (c indices) were used to assess the prognostic information provided beyond that of a clinical treatment score (CTS) by RS, ROR, or IHC4, an index of DR risk derived from immunohistochemical assessment of ER, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), and Ki67. RESULTS ROR added significant prognostic information beyond CTS in all patients (Δ LR-χ(2) = 33.9; P < .001) and in all four subgroups: node negative, node positive, HER2 negative, and HER2 negative/node negative; more information was added by ROR than by RS. C indices in the HER2-negative/node-negative subgroup were 0.73, 0.76, and 0.78 for CTS, CTS plus RS, and CTS plus ROR, respectively. More patients were scored as high risk and fewer as intermediate risk by ROR than by RS. Relatively similar prognostic information was added by ROR and IHC4 in all patients but more by ROR in the HER2-negative/node-negative group. CONCLUSION ROR provides more prognostic information in endocrine-treated patients with ER-positive, node-negative disease than RS, with better differentiation of intermediate- and higher-risk groups.

Effect of tamoxifen and radiotherapy in women with locally excised ductal carcinoma in situ: long-term results from the UK/ANZ DCIS trial.

Summary Background Initial results of the UK/ANZ DCIS (UK, Australia, and New Zealand ductal carcinoma in situ) trial suggested that radiotherapy reduced new breast events of ipsilateral invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) compared with no radiotherapy, but no significant effects were noted with tamoxifen. Here, we report long-term results of this trial. Methods Women with completely locally excised DCIS were recruited into a randomised 2×2 factorial trial of radiotherapy, tamoxifen, or both. Randomisation was independently done for each of the two treatments (radiotherapy and tamoxifen), stratified by screening assessment centre, and blocked in groups of four. The recommended dose for radiation was 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks (2 Gy per day on weekdays), and tamoxifen was prescribed at a dose of 20 mg daily for 5 years. Elective decision to withhold or provide one of the treatments was permitted. The endpoints of primary interest were invasive ipsilateral new breast events for the radiotherapy comparison and any new breast event, including contralateral disease and DCIS, for tamoxifen. Analysis of each of the two treatment comparisons was restricted to patients who were randomly assigned to that treatment. Analyses were by intention to treat. All trial drugs have been completed and this study is in long-term follow-up. This study is registered, number ISRCTN99513870. Findings Between May, 1990, and August, 1998, 1701 women were randomly assigned to radiotherapy and tamoxifen, radiotherapy alone, tamoxifen alone, or to no adjuvant treatment. Seven patients had protocol violations and thus 1694 patients were available for analysis. After a median follow-up of 12·7 years (IQR 10·9–14·7), 376 (163 invasive [122 ipsilateral vs 39 contralateral], 197 DCIS [174 ipsilateral vs 17 contralateral], and 16 of unknown invasiveness or laterality) breast cancers were diagnosed. Radiotherapy reduced the incidence of all new breast events (hazard ratio [HR] 0·41, 95% CI 0·30–0·56; p<0·0001), reducing the incidence of ipsilateral invasive disease (0·32, 0·19–0·56; p<0·0001) as well as ipsilateral DCIS (0·38, 0·22–0·63; p<0·0001), but having no effect on contralateral breast cancer (0·84, 0·45–1·58; p=0·6). Tamoxifen reduced the incidence of all new breast events (HR 0·71, 95% CI 0·58–0·88; p=0·002), reducing recurrent ipsilateral DCIS (0·70, 0·51–0·86; p=0·03) and contralateral tumours (0·44, 0·25–0·77; p=0·005), but having no effect on ipsilateral invasive disease (0·95, 0·66–1·38; p=0·8). No data on adverse events except cause of death were collected for this trial. Interpretation This updated analysis confirms the long-term beneficial effect of radiotherapy and reports a benefit for tamoxifen in reducing local and contralateral new breast events for women with DCIS treated by complete local excision. Funding Cancer Research UK and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Anastrozole for prevention of breast cancer in high-risk postmenopausal women (IBIS-II): an international, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND Aromatase inhibitors effectively prevent breast cancer recurrence and development of new contralateral tumours in postmenopausal women. We assessed the efficacy and safety of the aromatase inhibitor anastrozole for prevention of breast cancer in postmenopausal women who are at high risk of the disease. METHODS Between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 40-70 years from 18 countries into an international, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial. To be eligible, women had to be at increased risk of breast cancer (judged on the basis of specific criteria). Eligible women were randomly assigned (1:1) by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or matching placebo every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by country and was done with blocks (size six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation; only the trial statistician was unmasked. The primary endpoint was histologically confirmed breast cancer (invasive cancers or non-invasive ductal carcinoma in situ). Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN31488319. FINDINGS 1920 women were randomly assigned to receive anastrozole and 1944 to placebo. After a median follow-up of 5·0 years (IQR 3·0-7·1), 40 women in the anastrozole group (2%) and 85 in the placebo group (4%) had developed breast cancer (hazard ratio 0·47, 95% CI 0·32-0·68, p<0·0001). The predicted cumulative incidence of all breast cancers after 7 years was 5·6% in the placebo group and 2·8% in the anastrozole group. 18 deaths were reported in the anastrozole group and 17 in the placebo group, and no specific causes were more common in one group than the other (p=0·836). INTERPRETATION Anastrozole effectively reduces incidence of breast cancer in high-risk postmenopausal women. This finding, along with the fact that most of the side-effects associated with oestrogen deprivation were not attributable to treatment, provides support for the use of anastrozole in postmenopausal women at high risk of breast cancer. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, Sanofi-Aventis, and AstraZeneca.

Selective oestrogen receptor modulators in prevention of breast cancer: an updated meta-analysis of individual participant data

Summary Background Tamoxifen and raloxifene reduce the risk of breast cancer in women at elevated risk of disease, but the duration of the effect is unknown. We assessed the effectiveness of selective oestrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) on breast cancer incidence. Methods We did a meta-analysis with individual participant data from nine prevention trials comparing four selective oestrogen receptor modulators (SERMs; tamoxifen, raloxifene, arzoxifene, and lasofoxifene) with placebo, or in one study with tamoxifen. Our primary endpoint was incidence of all breast cancer (including ductal carcinoma in situ) during a 10 year follow-up period. Analysis was by intention to treat. Results We analysed data for 83 399 women with 306 617 women-years of follow-up. Median follow-up was 65 months (IQR 54–93). Overall, we noted a 38% reduction (hazard ratio [HR] 0·62, 95% CI 0·56–0·69) in breast cancer incidence, and 42 women would need to be treated to prevent one breast cancer event in the first 10 years of follow-up. The reduction was larger in the first 5 years of follow-up than in years 5–10 (42%, HR 0·58, 0·51–0·66; p<0·0001 vs 25%, 0·75, 0·61–0·93; p=0·007), but we noted no heterogeneity between time periods. Thromboembolic events were significantly increased with all SERMs (odds ratio 1·73, 95% CI 1·47–2·05; p<0·0001). We recorded a significant reduction of 34% in vertebral fractures (0·66, 0·59–0·73), but only a small effect for non-vertebral fractures (0·93, 0·87–0·99). Interpretation For all SERMs, incidence of invasive oestrogen (ER)-positive breast cancer was reduced both during treatment and for at least 5 years after completion. Similar to other preventive interventions, careful consideration of risks and benefits is needed to identify women who are most likely to benefit from these drugs. Funding Cancer Research UK.

CYP2D6 and UGT2B7 Genotype and Risk of Recurrence in Tamoxifen-Treated Breast Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND Adjuvant tamoxifen therapy substantially decreases the risk of recurrence and mortality in women with hormone (estrogen and/or progesterone) receptor-positive breast cancer. Previous studies have suggested that metabolic conversion of tamoxifen to endoxifen by cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6) is required for patient benefit from tamoxifen therapy. METHODS Tumor specimens from a subset of postmenopausal patients with hormone receptor-positive early-stage (stages I, II, and IIIA) breast cancer, who were enrolled in the randomized double-blind Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) clinical trial, were genotyped for variants in CYP2D6 (N = 1203 patients: anastrozole [trade name: Arimidex] group, n = 615 patients; tamoxifen group, n = 588 patients) and UDP-glucuronosyltransferase-2B7 (UGT2B7), whose gene product inactivates endoxifen (N = 1209 patients; anastrozole group, n = 606 patients; tamoxifen group, n = 603 patients). Genotyping was performed using polymerase chain reaction-based TaqMan assays. Based on the genotypes for CYP2D6, patients were classified as poor metabolizer (PM), intermediate metabolizer (IM), or extensive metabolizer (EM) phenotypes. We evaluated the association of CYP2D6 and UGT2B7 genotype with distant recurrence (primary endpoint) and any recurrence (secondary endpoint) by estimating the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox proportional hazards models. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 10 years, no statistically significant associations were observed between CYP2D6 genotype and recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients (PM vs EM: HR for distant recurrence = 1.25, 95% CI = 0.55 to 3.15, P = .64; HR for any recurrence = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.48 to 2.08, P = .99). A near-null association was observed between UGT2B7 genotype and recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients. No associations were observed between CYP2D6 and UGT2B7 genotypes and recurrence in anastrozole-treated patients. CONCLUSION The results do not support the hypothesis that CYP2D6 genotype predicts clinical benefit of adjuvant tamoxifen treatment among postmenopausal breast cancer patients.

Prediction of late distant recurrence in patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer: a prospective comparison of the breast-cancer index (BCI) assay, 21-gene recurrence score, and IHC4 in the TransATAC study population.

BACKGROUND Biomarkers to improve the risk-benefit of extended adjuvant endocrine therapy for late recurrence in patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer would be clinically valuable. We compared the prognostic ability of the breast-cancer index (BCI) assay, 21-gene recurrence score (Oncotype DX), and an immunohistochemical prognostic model (IHC4) for both early and late recurrence in patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive, node-negative (N0) disease who took part in the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) clinical trial. METHODS In this prospective comparison study, we obtained archival tumour blocks from the TransATAC tissue bank from all postmenopausal patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer from whom the 21-gene recurrence score and IHC4 values had already been derived. We did BCI analysis in matched samples with sufficient residual RNA using two BCI models-cubic (BCI-C) and linear (BCI-L)-using previously validated cutoffs. We assessed prognostic ability of BCI for distant recurrence over 10 years (the primary endpoint) and compared it with that of the 21-gene recurrence score and IHC4. We also tested the ability of the assays to predict early (0-5 years) and late (5-10 years) distant recurrence. To assess the ability of the biomarkers to predict recurrence beyond standard clinicopathological variables, we calculated the change in the likelihood-ratio χ(2) (LR-Δχ(2)) from Cox proportional hazards models. FINDINGS Suitable tissue was available from 665 patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive, N0 breast cancer for BCI analysis. The primary analysis showed significant differences in risk of distant recurrence over 10 years in the categorical BCI-C risk groups (p<0·0001) with 6·8% (95% CI 4·4-10·0) of patients in the low-risk group, 17·3% (12·0-24·7) in the intermediate group, and 22·2% (15·3-31·5) in the high-risk group having distant recurrence. The secondary analysis showed that BCI-L was a much stronger predictor for overall (0-10 year) distant recurrence compared with BCI-C (interquartile HR 2·30 [95% CI 1·62-3·27]; LR-Δχ(2)=22·69; p<0·0001). When compared with BCI-L, the 21-gene recurrence score was less predictive (HR 1·48 [95% CI 1·22-1·78]; LR-Δχ(2)=13·68; p=0·0002) and IHC4 was similar (HR 1·69 [95% CI 1·51-2·56]; LR-Δχ(2)=22·83; p<0·0001). All further analyses were done with the BCI-L model. In a multivariable analysis, all assays had significant prognostic ability for early distant recurrence (BCI-L HR 2·77 [95% CI 1·63-4·70], LR-Δχ(2)=15·42, p<0·0001; 21-gene recurrence score HR 1·80 [1·42-2·29], LR-Δχ(2)=18·48, p<0·0001; IHC4 HR 2·90 [2·01-4·18], LR-Δχ(2)=29·14, p<0·0001); however, only BCI-L was significant for late distant recurrence (BCI-L HR 1·95 [95% CI 1·22-3·14], LR-Δχ(2)=7·97, p=0·0048; 21-gene recurrence score HR 1·13 [0·82-1·56], LR-Δχ(2)=0·48, p=0·47; IHC4 HR 1·30 [0·88-1·94], LR-Δχ(2)=1·59, p=0·20). INTERPRETATION BCI-L was the only significant prognostic test for risk of both early and late distant recurrence and identified two risk populations for each timeframe. It could help to identify patients at high risk for late distant recurrence who might benefit from extended endocrine or other therapy. FUNDING Avon Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Breast Cancer Foundation, US Department of Defense Breast Cancer Research Program, Susan G Komen for the Cure, Breakthrough Breast Cancer through the Mary-Jean Mitchell Green Foundation, AstraZeneca, Cancer Research UK, and the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the Royal Marsden (London, UK).

Effect of Body Mass Index on Recurrences in Tamoxifen and Anastrozole Treated Women: An Exploratory Analysis From the ATAC Trial

PURPOSE Third-generation aromatase inhibitors have been widely used in postmenopausal women for the adjuvant treatment of hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. As aromatase inhibitors work by inhibiting the conversion of androgens to estrogens in adipose tissue, we hypothesized that anastrozole may be more effective in women with a high body mass index (BMI). PATIENTS AND METHODS The Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (ATAC) study was a double-blind randomized clinical trial in which postmenopausal women with early-stage breast cancer were randomly assigned to receive oral daily anastrozole (1 mg) alone, tamoxifen (20 mg) alone, or the combination in a double-blind fashion. Analyses were based on the 100-month median follow-up for women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancers (estrogen [ER] and/or progesterone [PgR] positive). Here, we investigate the impact of BMI on recurrence and the relative benefit of anastrozole versus tamoxifen according to baseline BMI. Results Overall, women with a high BMI (BMI > 35 kg/m(2)) at baseline had more recurrences than those women with a low BMI (BMI < 23 kg/m(2); adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.82; P(heterogeneity) = .03) and significantly more distant recurrences (adjusted HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.61; P(heterogeneity) = .01). Overall, the relative benefit of anastrozole versus tamoxifen was nonsignificantly better in thin women compared to overweight women. CONCLUSION These results confirm the poorer prognosis of obese women with early-stage breast cancer. Recurrence rates were lower for anastrozole than tamoxifen for all BMI quintiles. Our results suggest that the relative efficacy of anastrozole compared to tamoxifen is greater in thin postmenopausal women and higher doses or more complete inhibitors might be more effective in overweight women, but this requires independent confirmation.

Risk factors for joint symptoms in patients enrolled in the ATAC trial: a retrospective, exploratory analysis

BACKGROUND Joint symptoms (eg, arthralgia and arthritis) are a well-known side-effect of aromatase inhibitors. Low oestrogen concentrations and postmenopausal status are associated with the development of these symptoms. Chemotherapy can also induce joint symptoms, but tamoxifen seems to have little effect on their incidence. The aim of this study was to assess the relative importance of different risk factors for treatment-emergent joint symptoms in patients assigned to anastrozole or tamoxifen as adjuvant treatment for postmenopausal breast cancer. METHODS The Arimidex Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial randomly assigned 9366 postmenopausal women to anastrozole (1 mg/day), to tamoxifen (20 mg/day), or to a combination of both. Our analyses were based on data from case reports of 5433 women who were randomly assigned to anastrozole or tamoxifen, who started with their allocated treatment, and who did not have joint symptoms at entry (anastrozole group: n=2698; tamoxifen group: n=2735). The analysis was restricted to the occurrence of joint symptoms at any time during active treatment or within 14 days of its discontinuation. Joint symptoms were defined as any report of arthralgia, arthrosis, arthritis, or joint disorder on a case-report form. Joint disorders were defined as reports of cervical spondylosis, osteoarthritis, and disc herniation. The date of occurrence was recorded, along with a severity score (ie, mild, moderate, or severe). Our analyses were done by use of logistic regression. The ATAC trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN18233230. FINDINGS 777 of 1914 women (40.6%) who used hormone replacement therapy (HRT) before trial entry developed joint symptoms compared with 1001 of 3519 women (28.4%) without previous HRT use (odds ratio [OR] 1.72 [95% CI 1.53-1.93]). Women with hormone-receptor-negative breast cancer developed significantly fewer joint symptoms compared with those with hormone-receptor-positive tumours (124 of 461 [26.9%] vs 1556 of 4548 [34.2%]; OR 0.71 [0.57-0.88]). Women for whom chemotherapy was part of their initial treatment developed significantly more joint symptoms than those who did not receive it (461 of 1219 women [37.8%] vs 1317 of 4214 women [31.3%]; OR 1.34 [1.17-1.53]). Obese women (body-mass index [BMI] >30 kg/m(2)) reported more joint symptoms than women with a BMI of 25-30 kg/m(2) or those with a BMI <25 kg/m(2) (504 of 1354 women [37.2%] vs 502 of 1926 women [31.3%; OR 1.01 (0.88-1.16)] vs 592 of 1908 women [31.0%; OR 1.32 (1.14-1.53)]) and women on anastrozole reported more joint symptoms compared with those on tamoxifen (949 of 2698 women [35.2%] vs 829 of 2735 women [30.3%]; OR 1.25 [1.11-1.40]). All significant risk factors from the univariate analysis were included in a multivariate analysis and remained significant with little change. INTERPRETATION In this trial, the major risk factors for developing joint symptoms were previous HRT, hormone-receptor positivity, previous chemotherapy, obesity, and treatment with anastrozole. Discussion of identified risk factors is appropriate when counselling women before initiation of adjuvant hormonal treatment.

Treatment-emergent endocrine symptoms and the risk of breast cancer recurrence: a retrospective analysis of the ATAC trial

BACKGROUND When the mechanism of action behind treatment toxicity reflects the intended effect on the treatment target, the toxicity might be a useful marker for efficacy. During endocrine treatment of breast cancer, the occurrence of symptoms related to oestrogen depletion or oestrogen blockade might thus be a predictor of treatment effectiveness. In this retrospective analysis, the relation between the reported incidence of vasomotor or joint symptoms and breast cancer recurrence in the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial is assessed. METHODS Women with hormone-receptor-positive tumours who reported vasomotor or joint symptoms at the first follow-up visit (3 months) in the ATAC trial, (which assessed tamoxifen or anastrozole for adjuvant treatment of postmenopausal breast cancer), were compared with women without these symptoms to see if there was a relation between these symptoms and subsequent recurrence. The ATAC trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN18233230. FINDINGS 1486 of 3964 (37.5%) eligible women reported newly emergent vasomotor symptoms at the 3-month follow-up visit and had lower subsequent recurrence than those who did not report these symptoms (223 during 10 752 women-years of follow-up vs 366 during 11 573 woman-years of follow-up, respectively; hazard ratio [HR] 0.84 [95% CI 0.71-1.00], p=0.04; adjusted for age, body-mass index, previous hormone-replacement therapy, nodal status, tumour size, and tumour grade). A greater decrease in breast-cancer recurrence was seen for the 1245 of 3964 (31.4%) eligible women who reported new joint symptoms at the 3-month follow-up visit compared with those not reporting these symptoms (158 during 9242 women-years of follow-up vs 366 during 11 573 women-years of follow-up; adjusted HR 0.60 [0.50-0.72], p<0.0001). INTERPRETATION The appearance of new vasomotor symptoms or joint symptoms within the first 3 months of treatment is a useful biomarker, suggesting a greater response to endocrine treatment compared with women without these symptoms. Awareness of the relation between early treatment-emergent symptoms and beneficial response to therapy might be useful when reassuring patients who present with them, and might help to improve long-term treatment adherence when symptoms cannot be alleviated effectively.