Ivar Vågsholm

Quantitative microbial risk assessment exemplified by Staphylococcus aureus in unripened cheese made from raw milk.

This paper discusses some of the developments and problems in the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment, especially exposure assessment and probabilistic risk assessment models. To illustrate some of the topics, an initial risk assessment was presented, in which predictive microbiology and survey data were combined with probabilistic modelling to simulate the level of Staphylococcus aureus in unripened cheese made from raw milk at the time of consumption. Due to limited data and absence of dose-response models, a complete risk assessment was not possible. Instead, the final level of bacteria was used as a proxy for the potential enterotoxin level, and thus the potential for causing illness. The assessment endpoint selected for evaluation was the probability that a cheese contained at least 6 log cfu S. aureus g(-1) at the time of consumption; the probability of an unsatisfactory cheese, P(uc). The initial level of S. aureus, followed by storage temperature had the largest influence on P(uc) at the two pH-values investigated. P(uc) decreased with decreasing pH and was up to a factor of 30 lower in low pH cheeses due to a slower growth rate. Of the model assumptions examined, i.e. the proportion of enterotoxigenic strains, the level of S. aureus in non-detect cheeses, the temperature limit for toxin production, and the magnitude and variability of the threshold for an unsatisfactory cheese, it was the latter that had the greatest impact on P(uc). The uncertainty introduced by this assumption was in most cases less than a factor of 36, the same order of magnitude as the maximum variability due to pH. Several data gaps were identified and suggestions were made to improve the initial risk assessment, which is valid only to the extent that the limited data reflected the true conditions and that the assumptions made were valid. Despite the limitations, a quantitative approach was useful to gain insights and to evaluate several factors that influence the potential risk and to make some inferences with relevance to risk management. For instance, the possible effect of using starter cultures in the cheese making process to improve the safety of these products.

Causes of mortality in laying hens in different housing systems in 2001 to 2004

BackgroundThe husbandry systems for laying hens were changed in Sweden during the years 2001 – 2004, and an increase in the number of submissions for necropsy from laying hen farms was noted. Hence, this study was initiated to compare causes of mortality in different housing systems for commercial laying hens during this change.MethodsBased on results from routine necropsies of 914 laying hens performed at the National Veterinary Institute (SVA) in Uppsala, Sweden between 2001 and 2004, a retrospective study on the occurrence of diseases and cannibalism, i.e., pecking leading to mortality, in different housing systems was carried out. Using the number of disease outbreaks in caged flocks as the baseline, the expected number of flocks with a certain category of disease in the other housing systems was estimated having regard to the total number of birds in the population. Whether the actual number of flocks significantly exceeded the expected number was determined using a Poisson distribution for the variance of the baseline number, a continuity correction and the exact value for the Poisson distribution function in Excel 2000.ResultsCommon causes of mortality in necropsied laying hens included colibacillosis, erysipelas, coccidiosis, red mite infestation, lymphoid leukosis and cannibalism. Less common diagnoses were Newcastle Disease, pasteurellosis and botulism. Considering the size of the populations in the different housing systems, a larger proportion of laying hens than expected was submitted for necropsy from litter-based systems and free range production compared to hens in cages (P < 0.001). The study showed a significantly higher occurrence of bacterial and parasitic diseases and cannibalism in laying hens kept in litter-based housing systems and free-range systems than in hens kept in cages (P < 0.001). The occurrence of viral diseases was significantly higher in indoor litter-based housing systems than in cages (P < 0.001).ConclusionThe results of the present study indicated that during 2001–2004 laying hens housed in litter-based housing systems, with or without access to outdoor areas, were at higher risk of infectious diseases and cannibalistic behaviour compared to laying hens in cages. Future research should focus on finding suitable prophylactic measures, including efficient biosecurity routines, to reduce the risk of infectious diseases and cannibalism in litter-based housing systems for laying hens.

GIS-supported investigation of human EHEC and cattle VTEC O157 infections in Sweden: geographical distribution, spatial variation and possible risk factors.

This article describes the spatial and temporal distribution of verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli among humans (EHEC) and cattle (VTEC) in Sweden, in order to evaluate relationships between the incidence of EHEC in humans, prevalence of VTEC O157 in livestock and agricultural structure by an ecological study. The spatial patterns of the distribution of human infections were described and compared with spatial patterns of occurrence in cattle, using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The findings implicate a concentration of human infection and cattle prevalence in the southwest of Sweden. The use of probability mapping confirmed unusual patterns of infection rates. The comparison of human and cattle infection indicated a spatial and statistical association. The correlation between variables of the agricultural structure and human EHEC incidence was high, indicating a significant statistical association of cattle and farm density with human infection. The explained variation of a multiple linear regression model was 0.56.

Feed-borne Outbreak of Salmonella Cubana in Swedish Pig Farms: Risk Factors and Factors Affecting the Restriction Period in Infected Farms

In 2003, a feed-borne outbreak of Salmonella Cubana occurred in Sweden as a result of contamination in a feed plant. Salmonella Cubana was detected in 49 out of 77 pig farms having received possibly contaminated feed. In this study, potential risk factors for farms being salmonella positive were examined, and a survival analysis was performed to investigate risk factors affecting the restriction period for salmonella positive farms.The median restriction time for all 49 farms was 17 weeks. An increased risk for farms being salmonella infected (positive in feed and/or faeces) was seen for fattening farms and farms feeding soy. The survival analysis showed that herds with a low level of infection and farms with a high hygiene level had shorter restriction times.This study is unique as it investigates a real outbreak of feed-borne salmonella, where the source of infection was reliably identified, the period of exposure could be defined and data were collected from all exposed farms.SammanfattningSommaren 2003 påvisades en kontamination med Salmonella Cubana i en svensk foderfabrik. Vidare utredning visade att potentiellt smittat foder hade levererats till 77 svinbesättningar.I 49 av de 77 besättningarna kunde S. Cubana isoleras vid provtagningar av svin och/eller fodersystem. Dessa besättningar spärrförklarades och sanerades i enlighet med det svenska salmonellakontrollprogrammet. Denna studie omfattar en riskfaktoranalys och en överlevnadsanalys. Riskfaktorer för att en besättning som mottagit foder från den kontaminerade fabriken infekterats med salmonella undersöktes, respektive faktorer som kan ha påverkat spärrtidens längd på de gårdar som befanns salmonellapositiva. För de 49 drabbade besättningar var medianvärdet för spärrtidens längd 17 veckor. En ökad risk för att ha blivit infekterad med salmonella sågs hos gårdar med slaktsvinsproduktion och hos gårdar som köpt soja från den kontaminerade foderfabriken. Det visades även att gårdar med ett lågt smittryck, samt de med en hög hygiennivå, hade kortare spärrtid. Denna studie är unik då den undersöker ett verkligt utbrott av foderburen salmonella där smittkällan identifierats, exponeringsperioden definierats och data samlats in från samtliga gårdar som fått det potentiellt smittade fodret. .

Comparison between dairy cow disease incidence in data registered by farmers and in data from a disease-recording system based on veterinary reporting

Abstract Sweden has a national disease-recording system based on veterinary reporting. From this system, all cattle-disease records are transferred to the dairy industry cattle database (DDD) where they are used for several purposes including research and dairy-health statistics. Our objective was to evaluate the completeness of this data source by comparing it with disease data registered by dairy farmers. The proportion of veterinary-treated disease events was estimated, by diagnosis. Disease incidence in the DDD was compared, by diagnosis and age, with disease data registered by the farmers. Comparison was made, by diagnosis, for (i) all disease events and (ii) those reported as veterinary-treated. Disease events, defined as “observed deviations in health, from the normal” were recorded by the farmers during January, April, July and October 2004. For the diagnoses calving problems, peripartum disorders, puerperal paresis and retained placenta, incidence proportions (IP) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated. For all other disease problems, incidence rates (IR) were used. In total, 177 farmers reported at least 1 month and 148 reported all 4 months. Fifty-four percent of all disease events in the farmers’ data were reported as veterinary-treated. For several of the most common diagnoses, the IRs and IPs for all events were significantly higher in farmers’ data than in the DDD. Examples are, in cows: clinical mastitis, cough, gastro-intestinal disorders and lameness in hoof and limb; and in young stock: cough and gastro-intestinal disorders. For veterinary-treated events only, significant differences with higher IR in the farmers’ data were found in young stock for sporadic cough and sporadic gastro-intestinal disorders. The diagnosis “other disorders” had significantly more events in the DDD than in farmers’ data, i.e. veterinarians tended to choose more unspecific diagnoses than the farmers. This result indicates that the true completeness is likely to be higher than our estimate. We conclude that for the time period studied there was differential under-reporting associated with the diagnosis, the age of the animal and whether the herd was served by a state-employed or private veterinarian.

Prevalence of verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) 0157 in Swedish dairy herds

A prevalence study of verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) was performed in 371 randomly selected dairy herds distributed throughout Sweden. Faecal and manure samples were collected and analysed by immunomagnetic separation and culturing. Data were recorded for each herd regarding herd size, age of sampled animals and whether, in addition to cattle, the farm kept other animals. VTEC O157 was isolated from 33 (8.9%) of the 371 investigated herds. The prevalence was higher (23.3%) in Halland county than in the rest of Sweden (P > 0.01). Halland was also the county in Sweden that during the study period had the highest incidence of human VTEC O157 cases. VTEC O157 was not detected on any farm in northern Sweden. Identified risk factors, in the multivariate analyses, for herds being VTEC O157 positive were herd size, geographical localization, presence of pigs on the farm and median age of sampled animals.

Bulk milk testing for antibody seroprevalences to BVDV and BHV-1 in a rural region of Peru

Bulk milk from 60 herds of dairy cattle in a rural region in the central highlands of Peru was tested for antibodies to bovine viral-diarrhoea virus (BVDV) and bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV-1). None of the herds had been vaccinated against BVDV or BHV-1. Commercially available indirect ELISA-kits were used for antibody detection. True prevalences of BVDV and BHV-1 antibody-positive herds were 96 and 51%, respectively. A relatively low proportion of strongly positive herds suggests, however, a low prevalence of active BVDV infection. BVDV optical densities (ODs) in bulk milk increased with herd size--indicating a higher within-herd prevalence in the larger herds (probably, in part a consequence of a higher rate of animal movement into these herds). For BHV-1, this pattern was not found; a relatively high proportion of the herds was free from BHV-1 infection in each size category. This could indicate a low rate of reactivation of latent BHV-1 infection.

Serological Survey of Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Pigs Slaughtered in Sweden

The prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection in Swedish pigs was investigated by analysis of 807 meat juice samples collected in 1999 from 10 abattoirs in different parts of the country. When analysed using ELISA, 42 (5.2%) of the samples were found to be positive. The seroprevalence was 3.3% in fattening pigs (n = 695) and 17.3% (n = 110) in adult swine. Alternative interpretations of the results, considering estimates of the true prevalence based on the sensitivity and specificity of the test method, are discussed. It is concluded that the risk of contracting T. gondii infection as a result of eating undercooked pork from Swedish pigs, especially adult animals, is not negligible.

Cross-sectional study of the seroprevalence to Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and granulocytic Ehrlichia spp. and demographic, clinical and tick-exposure factors in Swedish horses.

A cross-sectional study of the seroprevalence to Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and granulocytic Ehrlichia spp. in Swedish horses was conducted to evaluate associations with demographic, clinical and tick-exposure factors. From September 1997-1998, blood samples from 2018 horses were collected from the animals presented to veterinary clinics affiliated with the Swedish Horserace Totalizator Board (regardless of the primary cause for consultation). Standardized questionnaires with information both from owners and attending veterinarians accompanied each blood sample. The apparent seroprevalences to B. burgdorferi s. l. and granulocytic Ehrlichia spp. were 16.8 and 16.7%, respectively. The northern region had the lowest seroprevalences. Four logistic models were developed (controlling for demographic variables). In the disease model of seropositivity to B. burgdorferi s. l., age, breed, geographic region, the serologic titer to granulocytic Ehrlichia spp., season and the diagnosis coffin-joint arthritis were significant. In the tick-exposure model of B. burgdorferi s. l., pasture access the previous year and gender were significant. Age, racing activity, geographic region, season and the serologic titer to B. burgdorferi s. l. were associated with positivity to granulocytic Ehrlichia spp. In the tick-exposure model of granulocytic Ehrlichia spp., pasture access was a risk factor. An interaction between racing activity and geographic region showed that the risk of positive serologic reactions to Ehrlichia spp. was increased in the horse population in the south and middle of Sweden, but only among horses not used for racing. Except for the positive association between coffin-joint arthritis and serologic reactions to B. burgdorferi s. l., there were no significant associations in the multivariable models between non-specific or specific clinical sign or disease with seropositivity to either of these agents.

Animal- and herd-level risk factors for leptospiral seropositivity among sows in the Mekong delta, Vietnam

In 1998, a total of 424 sows had sera collected in the Mekong delta in Vietnam. Of these, 283 sows were from 151 small-scale family farms in 19 villages, and 141 from seven large-scale state farms. The sera were subjected to the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) for antibodies to 13 Leptospira serovars. The overall leptospiral seroprevalence for titres > or =1:100 and > or =1:400, was 73 and 29%, respectively, and was higher (P=0.001) at small- than at large-scale farms. The highest seroprevalence was recorded for Leptospira interrogans serovar (sv) bratislava (52%). At small-scale farms, higher prevalences were found to serovars L. interrogans sv icterohaemorrhagiae (P=0.04) and L. interrogans sv pomona (P=0.02). Epidemiological information (at the individual-animal and herd-levels) was collected with a questionnaire. The data were analysed using logistic multiple regression. At the animal-level, sows seropositive for L. interrogans sv australis and sv autumnalis had less direct contact with sows in neighbouring pens (odds ratio (OR)=0.3 and 0.4, respectively) and sows seronegative for L. interrogans sv bratislava were of lower age (OR=0.1 for seropositivity). Also, sows seropositive for L. interrogans sv icterohaemorrhagiae had higher odds (OR=5.8) if they had not been born on the farm (had been introduced to it as gilts). Herds seropositive for sv javanica showed association with farms not taking measures to control the local rodent population (OR=7.8). Serovar pomona was also linked to the use of artificial insemination (AI), as opposed to natural-breeding services (OR=11.2). These results indicate that housing and management could affect the seroprevalence of Leptospira infection in pigs.