J. Anthony G. Scott

Global and regional burden of hospital admissions for severe acute lower respiratory infections in young children in 2010: a systematic analysis.

Summary Background The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010. Methods We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies. Findings We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3–13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1–4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265 000 (95% CI 160 000–450 000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals. Interpretation Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities. Funding WHO.

Association of serotype with risk of death due to pneumococcal pneumonia: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND The 92 capsular serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae differ greatly in nasopharyngeal carriage prevalence, invasiveness, and disease incidence. There has been some debate, though, regarding whether serotype independently affects the outcome of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Published studies have shown variable results with regard to case-fatality ratios for specific serotypes and the role of host factors in affecting these relationships. We evaluated whether risk of death due to IPD is a stable serotype-associated property across studies and then compared the pooled effect estimates with epidemiologic and biological correlates. METHODS We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of serotype-specific disease outcomes for patients with pneumonia and meningitis. Study-specific estimates of risk of death (risk ratio [RR]) were pooled from 9 studies that provided serotype-specific data on pneumonia and meningitis using a random-effects method with serotype 14 as the reference. Pooled RRs were compared with RRs from adults with low comorbidity scores to evaluate potential confounding by host factors. RESULTS Significant differences were found in the RR estimates among serotypes in patients with bacteremic pneumonia. Overall, serotypes 1, 7F, and 8 were associated with decreased RRs, and serotypes 3, 6A, 6B, 9N, and 19F were associated with increased RRs. Outcomes among meningitis patients did not differ significantly among serotypes. Serotypes with increased RRs had a high carriage prevalence, had low invasiveness, and were more heavily encapsulated in vitro. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest that IPD outcome, like other epidemiologic measures, is a stable serotype-associated property.

Viral etiology of severe pneumonia among Kenyan infants and children.

CONTEXT Pneumonia is the leading cause of childhood death in sub-Saharan Africa. Comparative estimates of the contribution of causative pathogens to the burden of disease are essential for targeted vaccine development. OBJECTIVE To determine the viral etiology of severe pneumonia among infants and children at a rural Kenyan hospital using comprehensive and sensitive molecular diagnostic techniques. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective observational and case-control study during 2007 in a rural Kenyan district hospital. Participants were children aged 1 day to 12 years, residing in a systematically enumerated catchment area, and who either were admitted to Kilifi District Hospital meeting World Health Organization clinical criteria for severe pneumonia or very severe pneumonia; (2) presented with mild upper respiratory tract infection but were not admitted; or (3) were well infants and children attending for immunization. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The presence of respiratory viruses and the odds ratio for admission with severe disease. RESULTS Of 922 eligible admitted patients, 759 were sampled (82% [median age, 9 months]). One or more respiratory viruses were detected in 425 of the 759 sampled (56% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 52%-60%]). Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was detected in 260 participants (34% [95% CI, 31%-38%]) and other respiratory viruses were detected in 219 participants (29%; 95% CI, 26%-32%), the most common being Human coronavirus 229E (n = 51 [6.7%]), influenza type A (n = 44 [5.8%]), Parainfluenza type 3 (n = 29 [3.8%]), Human adenovirus (n = 29 [3.8%]), and Human metapneumovirus (n = 23 [3.0%]). Compared with well control participants, detection of RSV was associated with severe disease (5% [corrected] in control participants; adjusted odds ratio, 6.11 [95% CI, 1.65-22.6]) while collectively, other respiratory viruses were not associated with severe disease (23% in control participants; adjusted odds ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 0.64-2.52]). CONCLUSION In a sample of Kenyan infants and children admitted with severe pneumonia to a rural hospital, RSV was the predominant viral pathogen.

Bacteraemia in Kenyan children with sickle-cell anaemia: a retrospective cohort and case–control study

Summary Background In sub-Saharan Africa, more than 90% of children with sickle-cell anaemia die before the diagnosis can be made. The causes of death are poorly documented, but bacterial sepsis is probably important. We examined the risk of invasive bacterial diseases in children with sickle-cell anaemia. Methods This study was undertaken in a rural area on the coast of Kenya, with a case–control approach. We undertook blood cultures on all children younger than 14 years who were admitted from within a defined study area to Kilifi District Hospital between Aug 1, 1998, and March 31, 2008; those with bacteraemia were defined as cases. We used two sets of controls: children recruited by random sampling in the same area into several studies undertaken between Sept 1, 1998, and Nov 30, 2005; and those born consecutively within the area between May 1, 2006, and April 30, 2008. Cases and controls were tested for sickle-cell anaemia retrospectively. Findings We detected 2157 episodes of bacteraemia in 38 441 admissions (6%). 1749 of these children with bacteraemia (81%) were typed for sickle-cell anaemia, of whom 108 (6%) were positive as were 89 of 13 492 controls (1%). The organisms most commonly isolated from children with sickle-cell anaemia were Streptococcus pneumoniae (44/108 isolates; 41%), non-typhi Salmonella species (19/108; 18%), Haemophilus influenzae type b (13/108; 12%), Acinetobacter species (seven of 108; 7%), and Escherichia coli (seven of 108; 7%). The age-adjusted odds ratio for bacteraemia in children with sickle-cell anaemia was 26·3 (95% CI 14·5–47·6), with the strongest associations for S pneumoniae (33·0, 17·4–62·8), non-typhi Salmonella species (35·5, 16·4–76·8), and H influenzae type b (28·1, 12·0–65·9). Interpretation The organisms causing bacteraemia in African children with sickle-cell anaemia are the same as those in developed countries. Introduction of conjugate vaccines against S pneumoniae and H influenzae into the childhood immunisation schedules of African countries could substantially affect survival of children with sickle-cell anaemia. Funding Wellcome Trust, UK.

Pneumococcal vaccination in developing countries

WHO estimates that about 1·6 million people, including up to 1 million children under 5 years old, die every year of pneumococcal pneumonia, meningitis, and sepsis.1 In populations with high child-mortality rates, pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality and accounts for about 20–25% of all child deaths.2 In these populations, Streptococcus pneumoniae is identified consistently as the leading cause of bacterial pneumonia, and pneumococcal bacteraemia is an important cause of child mortality. 3, 4 and 5 HIV infection increases risk for pneumococcal disease 20–40-fold, and antibiotic resistance makes treatment difficult and expensive. 6 Thus pneumococcal disease is a major global-health issue.

Use of clinical syndromes to target antibiotic prescribing in seriously ill children in malaria endemic area: observational study

Abstract Objectives To determine how well antibiotic treatment is targeted by simple clinical syndromes and to what extent drug resistance threatens affordable antibiotics. Design Observational study involving a priori definition of a hierarchy of syndromic indications for antibiotic therapy derived from World Health Organization integrated management of childhood illness and inpatient guidelines and application of these rules to a prospectively collected dataset. Setting Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya. Participants 11 847 acute paediatric admissions. Main outcome measures Presence of invasive bacterial infection (bacteraemia or meningitis) or Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia; antimicrobial sensitivities of isolated bacteria. Results 6254 (53%) admissions met criteria for syndromes requiring antibiotics (sick young infants; meningitis/encephalopathy; severe malnutrition; very severe, severe, or mild pneumonia; skin or soft tissue infection): 672 (11%) had an invasive bacterial infection (80% of all invasive bacterial infections identified), and 753 (12%) died (93% of all inpatient deaths). Among P falciparum infected children with a syndromic indication for parenteral antibiotics, an invasive bacterial infection was detected in 4.0-8.8%. For the syndrome of meningitis/encephalopathy, 96/123 (76%) isolates were fully sensitive in vitro to penicillin or chloramphenicol. Conclusions Simple clinical syndromes effectively target children admitted with invasive bacterial infection and those at risk of death. Malaria parasitaemia does not justify withholding empirical parenteral antibiotics. Lumbar puncture is critical to the rational use of antibiotics.

Diagnosis of Childhood Tuberculosis and Host RNA Expression in Africa

BACKGROUND Improved diagnostic tests for tuberculosis in children are needed. We hypothesized that transcriptional signatures of host blood could be used to distinguish tuberculosis from other diseases in African children who either were or were not infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). METHODS The study population comprised prospective cohorts of children who were undergoing evaluation for suspected tuberculosis in South Africa (655 children), Malawi (701 children), and Kenya (1599 children). Patients were assigned to groups according to whether the diagnosis was culture-confirmed tuberculosis, culture-negative tuberculosis, diseases other than tuberculosis, or latent tuberculosis infection. Diagnostic signatures distinguishing tuberculosis from other diseases and from latent tuberculosis infection were identified from genomewide analysis of RNA expression in host blood. RESULTS We identified a 51-transcript signature distinguishing tuberculosis from other diseases in the South African and Malawian children (the discovery cohort). In the Kenyan children (the validation cohort), a risk score based on the signature for tuberculosis and for diseases other than tuberculosis showed a sensitivity of 82.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 68.6 to 94.3) and a specificity of 83.6% (95% CI, 74.6 to 92.7) for the diagnosis of culture-confirmed tuberculosis. Among patients with cultures negative for Mycobacterium tuberculosis who were treated for tuberculosis (those with highly probable, probable, or possible cases of tuberculosis), the estimated sensitivity was 62.5 to 82.3%, 42.1 to 80.8%, and 35.3 to 79.6%, respectively, for different estimates of actual tuberculosis in the groups. In comparison, the sensitivity of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for molecular detection of M. tuberculosis DNA in cases of culture-confirmed tuberculosis was 54.3% (95% CI, 37.1 to 68.6), and the sensitivity in highly probable, probable, or possible cases was an estimated 25.0 to 35.7%, 5.3 to 13.3%, and 0%, respectively; the specificity of the assay was 100%. CONCLUSIONS RNA expression signatures provided data that helped distinguish tuberculosis from other diseases in African children with and those without HIV infection. (Funded by the European Union Action for Diseases of Poverty Program and others).

The descriptive epidemiology of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae nasopharyngeal carriage in children and adults in Kilifi district, Kenya.

Background: Transmission and nasopharyngeal colonization are necessary steps en route to invasive pneumococcal or Haemophilus influenzae disease but their patterns vary geographically. In East Africa we do not know how these pathogens are transmitted between population subgroups nor which serotypes circulate commonly. Methods: We did 2 cross-sectional nasopharyngeal swab surveys selecting subjects randomly from a population register to estimate prevalence and risk-factors for carriage in 2004. H. influenzae type b vaccine was introduced in 2001. Results: Of 450 individuals sampled in the dry season, 414 were resampled during the rainy season. Among subjects 0–4, 5–9, and 10–85 years old pneumococcal carriage prevalence was 57%, 41%, and 6.4%, respectively. H. influenzae prevalence was 26%, 24%, and 3.0%, respectively. Prevalence of H. influenzae type b in children <5 years was 1.7%. Significant risk factors for pneumococcal carriage were rainy season (odds ratio [OR]: 1.65), coryza (OR: 2.29), and coculture of noncapsulate H. influenzae (OR: 7.46). Coryza was also a risk factor for H. influenzae carriage (OR: 1.90). Of 128 H. influenzae isolates, 113 were noncapsulate. Among 279 isolates of Streptococcus pneumoniae, 40 serotypes were represented and the distribution of serotypes varied significantly with age; 7-valent vaccine-types, vaccine-related types, and nonvaccine types comprised 47%, 19%, and 34% of strains from children aged <5 years. Among older persons they comprised 25%, 28%, and 47%, respectively (P = 0.005). Conclusions: The study shows that pneumococcal carriage is common up to 9 years of age and that the majority of serotypes carried at all ages are not covered specifically by the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

Pneumonia research to reduce childhood mortality in the developing world

Pneumonia is an illness, usually caused by infection, in which the lungs become inflamed and congested, reducing oxygen exchange and leading to cough and breathlessness. It affects individuals of all ages but occurs most frequently in children and the elderly. Among children, pneumonia is the most common cause of death worldwide. Historically, in developed countries, deaths from pneumonia have been reduced by improvements in living conditions, air quality, and nutrition. In the developing world today, many deaths from pneumonia are also preventable by immunization or access to simple, effective treatments. However, as we highlight here, there are critical gaps in our understanding of the epidemiology, etiology, and pathophysiology of pneumonia that, if filled, could accelerate the control of pneumonia and reduce early childhood mortality.

A defunctioning polymorphism in FCGR2B is associated with protection against malaria but susceptibility to systemic lupus erythematosus

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a multisystem autoimmune disease more prevalent in people of African and Asian origin than Caucasian origin. FcγRIIb is an inhibitory Fc receptor with a critical role in immune regulation. Mouse data suggest that FcγRIIb deficiency increases susceptibility to autoimmune disease but protects against infection. We show that a SNP in human FCGR2B that abrogates receptor function is strongly associated with susceptibility to SLE in both Caucasians and Southeast Asians. The minor allele of this SNP is more common in Southeast Asians and Africans, populations from areas where malaria is endemic, than in Caucasians. We show that homozygosity for the minor allele is associated with substantial protection against severe malaria in an East African population (odds ratio = 0.56; P = 7.1 × 10−5). This protective effect against malaria may contribute to the higher frequency of this SNP and hence, SLE in Africans and Southeast Asians.