J. B. M. Ryan

Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months

In February 2001, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was confirmed in Great Britain. A major epidemic developed, which peaked around 50 cases a day in late March, declining to under 10 a day by May. By mid-July, 1849 cases had been detected. The main control measures employed were livestock movement restrictions and the rapid slaughter of infected and exposed livestock. The first detected case was in south-east England; infection was traced to a farm in north-east England to which all other cases were linked. The epidemic was large as a result of a combination of events, including a delay in the diagnosis of the index case, the movement of infected sheep to market before FMD was first diagnosed, and the time of year. Virus was introduced at a time when there were many sheep movements around the country and weather conditions supported survival of the virus. The consequence was multiple, effectively primary, introductions of FMD virus into major sheep-keeping areas. Subsequent local spread from these introductions accounted for the majority of cases. The largest local epidemics were in areas with dense sheep populations and livestock dealers who were active during the key period. Most affected farms kept both sheep and cattle. At the time of writing the epidemic was still ongoing; however, this paper provides a basis for scientific discussion of the first five months.

A cohort study to examine maternally-associated risk factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy

This long-term cohort study, initiated in July 1989, was designed to examine maternally-associated risk factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), forming part of the epidemiological research programme to assess the risks of non-feedborne transmission of BSE. In this study, the incidence of BSE in offspring of cows which developed clinical signs of BSE is compared with that in offspring, born in the same calving season and herd, of cows which had reached at least six years of age and had not developed BSE. All offspring were allowed to live to seven years of age. The results indicate a statistically significant risk difference between the two cohorts of 9.7 per cent and a relative risk of 3.2 for offspring of cows which developed clinical BSE. However, there is some evidence that this enhanced risk for offspring of BSE cases declined the later the offspring was born, but was increased the later the offspring was born in relation to the stage of the incubation period of the dam. The results presented cannot distinguish between a genetic component and true maternal transmission or a combination of both risks, but they do not indicate either that the BSE epidemic will be unduly prolonged or that the future incidence of BSE in Great Britain will increase significantly.

Faecal carriage of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 in cattle and sheep at slaughter in Great Britain.

A 12-month abattoir survey was conducted between January 1999 and January 2000, to determine the prevalence of faecal carriage of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli 0157 (VTEC 0157) in cattle and sheep slaughtered for human consumption in Great Britain. Samples of rectum containing faeces were collected from 3939 cattle and 4171 sheep at 118 abattoirs, in numbers proportional to the throughput of the premises. The annual prevalence of faecal carriage of VTEC 0157 was 4.7 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 4.1 to 5.4) for cattle and 1.7 per cent (1.3 to 2.1) for sheep, values which were statistically significantly different from each other (P<0.001). The organisms were recovered from both cattle and sheep slaughtered throughout the year and at abattoirs in all regions of the country, but the highest prevalence was in the summer. The most frequency recovered VTEC 0157 isolates were phage types 2, 8 and 21/28 in cattle and 4 and 32 in sheep, the five most frequently isolated phage types associated with illness in people in Great Britain during the same period.

Prevalence of faecal excretion of verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 in cattle in England and Wales.

During the decade to 1999, the incidence of human infections with the zoonotic pathogen verocytotoxinproducing Escherichia coli 0157 (VTEC 0157) increased in England and Wales. This paper describes the results of a survey of 75 farms to determine the prevalence of faecal excretion of VTEC 0157 by cattle, its primary reservoir host, in England and Wales. Faecal samples were collected from 4663 cattle between June and December 1999. The prevalence of excretion by individual cattle was 4.2 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval [cia 2.0 to 6.4) and 10.3 per cent (95 per cent cl 5.8 to 14.8) among animals in infected herds. The within-herd prevalence on positive farms ranged from 1.1 to 51.4 per cent. At least one positive animal was identified on 29 (38-7 per cent; 95 per cent Cl 28.1 to 50.4) of the farms, including dairy, suckler and fattening herds. The prevalence of excretion was least in the calves under two months of age, peaked in the calves aged between two and six months and declined thereafter. The phage types identified most widely were 4, 34 and 2, which were each found on six of the 29 positive farms.

Descriptive spatial analysis of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain to June 1997

This was a spatial analysis of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BsE) in Great Britain, based on agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996 and BSE case data collected up to June 1997. Kemel smoothing techniques were used to plot the distribution of BSE-positive cattle holdings per 100 holdings per square kilometre and the distribution of confirmed BSE cases per 100 head of cattle per square kilometre. In the early stages of the epidemic reported BSE cases were scattered widely throughout Great Britain, with no clearly identifiable focus. By June 1997, a statistically significant cluster of BSE-positive holdings was identifiable in the eastern part of the South west region of England. During the epidemic the highest densities of confirmed BSE cases per 100 cattle per square kilometre occurred in the greater part of the South west region of England and within Dyfed in the south west of Wales. In Wales, a small number of holdings experienced large numbers of confirmed BSE cases. In the South west region of England a large number of holdings experienced small numbers of confirmed cases. By June 1997, the distribution of BsE-positive holdings across Great Britain was largely determined by factors that influenced the amount of recycled infectious material they were exposed to.

Temporal aspects of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain: holding.associated risk factors for the disease

The objectives of this study were first to describe the pattern of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain in terms of the temporal change in the proportion of all cattle holdings that had experienced at least one confirmed case of BSE to June 30, 1997, and secondly to identify risk factors that influenced the date of onset of a holdings first confirmed BSE case. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and the BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was the cattle holding and included all those recorded at least once on annual agricultural censuses conducted between June 30,1986, and June 30,1996. The outcome of interest was the date on which clinical signs were recorded in a holdings first confirmed case of BSE, termed the BSE onset date. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to describe the temporal pattern of the epidemic. The BSE epidemic in Great Britain started in November 1986, with the majority of affected holdings having their BSE onset date after February 1992. After adjusting for the effect of the size and type of holding, holdings in the south of England (specifically those in the Eastern, South east and South west regions) had 2.22 to 2.43 (95 per cent confidence interval [ci] 2.07 to 2.58) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings in Scotland. After adjusting for the effect of region and type of holding, holdings with more than 53 adult cattle had 5.91 (95 per cent ci 5.62 to 6.21) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings with seven to 21 adult cattle. Dairy holdings had 3.06 (95 per cent ci 2.96 to 3.16) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as beef suckler holdings. These analyses show that there were different rates of onset in different regions and in holdings of different sizes and types, that the epidemic was propagated most strongly in the south of the country, and that the growth of the epidemic followed essentially the same pattern in each region of the country, with modest temporal lags between them. The control measures imposed in 1988 and 1990 brought the expansion of the epidemic under control, although the rate of progress was slowed by those regions where the effectiveness of the control methods took some time to take full effect.

Temporal aspects of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain: individual animal-associated risk factors for the disease

The objectives of this study were first to determine the cumulative incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the British cattle population from July 1986 to June 1997, secondly, to identify individual animal-associated risk factors that influenced the age of onset of clinical signs in confirmed BSE cases, and, thirdly, to assess the effectiveness of the measures introduced to control BSE during the epidemic. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and BSE case data collected up to June 30,1997. The unit of interest was individual adult cattle recorded on annual agricultural censuses between June 1986 and June 1996. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to characterise the age of onset of clinical signs. In total 167,366 cases of BSE were diagnosed in Great Britain up to June 30,1997. The cumulative incidence of BSE between July 1986 and June 1997 was 1.10 (95 per cent confidence interval [ci] 1.09 to 1.10) cases per 100 adult cattle at risk. Cattle from the South east, South west and Eastern regions of England had 4.26 to 5.96 (95 per cent cl 4.15 to 6.14) times as great a monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE as cattle from Scotland. Compared with cattle born before June 1985, those born between July 1987 and June 1988 had 22.5 (95 per cent cl 22.1 to 22.8) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE, whereas those born in the 12 months after July 1988 had only 7.39 (95 per cent cl 7.24 to 7.54) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE. This reduction in hazard was directly attributable to the ban on the use of ruminant protein as a feed instituted in July 1988. Successive cohorts from 1989 to 1991 experienced further reductions in the hazard of experiencing BSE. The additional decrease in hazard observed for the 1990 cohort may be attributed to the effect of the Specified Bovine Offal ban instituted in September 1990.

Use of laboratory data to reduce the time taken to detect new diseases: VIDA to FarmFile.

The analysis of laboratory data can provide information about the health of livestock populations; in Great Britain the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (vida) system has provided such data since 1975. However vida covers only known diagnoses, with limited epidemiological characterisation. The unexpected outbreak of bse showed that it was necessary to improve surveillance to detect new diseases, and a necessary update of the vida database for the millennium date change provided the opportunity. The information required to enhance the value of laboratory data was identified, a new form and database, ‘FarmFile’, were designed to record it, and they began to be used in 1999. The detection of new diseases depends on making comparisons with the expected or ‘usual’ levels of unexplained disease. The data are analysed quarterly to assess any changes in the levels of unexplained disease in different species, categorised in terms of clinical sign or body system, by comparison with previous years. No new diseases have been detected either through FarmFile or more traditional means since the new analyses started in earnest in 2004, but they have indicated that an unexplained event was not a new disease of concern, and developments continue to improve the systems sensitivity and specificity.

Scrapie surveillance in Great Britain: results of an abattoir survey, 1997/98

A randomised sample of 2809 apparently healthy sheep, 55 per cent of them less than 15 months of age, which were slaughtered for human consumption at abattoirs in Great Britain in 1997/98, was taken to establish the prevalence of scrapie infection. The medulla oblongata of each sheep was examined histopathologically at the level of the obex, and fresh brain tissue was examined for scrapie-associated fibrils (SAF) to establish whether there was evidence of scrapie. In addition, histological sections of the medulla from 500 of the sheep were immunostained with an antiserum to PrR and the same technique was also applied to any animal found positive or inconclusive by the histological or SAF examinations. Any sheep which was positive by any of these diagnostic methods was also examined by Western immunoblotting, for the detection of the disease-specific protein PrPsc. A total of 2798 sheep (99.6 per cent) were negative by all the methods applied. Ten animals were SAF-positive but negative by all the other methods, and in one animal there was immunohistochemical staining which could not be interpreted unequivocally as diseasespecific. A mathematical model was used to estimate the prevalence of scrapie infection in the national slaughtered sheep population which would be consistent with these results. By this model, the absence of unequivocally substantiated cases of scrapie in the sample was consistent with a prevalence of infection in the slaughter population of up to 11 per cent.

Descriptive epidemiological features of cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy born after July 31, 1996 in Great Britain.

This paper describes the results of analyses of the epidemiological features of the 164 cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain that were born after the introduction of the reinforced legislation introduced on August 1, 1996 (BARB cases) and that were detected before December 31, 2008. This additional control measure prohibited the use of mammalian meat and bone meal (MMBM) in feed for farm animals to prevent further exposure of cattle to the BSE agent. There was a pronounced reduction in the risk of infection, by three orders of magnitude, for cattle born after July 31, 1996 compared with that for cattle born earlier, and a statistically significant exponential reduction in the estimated prevalence between successive annual birth cohorts after this date. There was no evidence that a significant number of these cases occurred as a result of a maternally associated risk factor, infection from environmental contamination (other than from feedstuffs) or as a result of a genetically based aetiology. The epidemiological features were consistent with an exogenous feedborne source as a result of a reliance on imported feedstuffs in Great Britain and the later introduction of a ban on the use of MMBM in other EU member states on January 1, 2001.