J. C. Dietrich

A High-Resolution Coupled Riverine Flow, Tide, Wind, Wind Wave, and Storm Surge Model for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Part I: Model Development and Validation

Abstract A coupled system of wind, wind wave, and coastal circulation models has been implemented for southern Louisiana and Mississippi to simulate riverine flows, tides, wind waves, and hurricane storm surge in the region. The system combines the NOAA Hurricane Research Division Wind Analysis System (H*WIND) and the Interactive Objective Kinematic Analysis (IOKA) kinematic wind analyses, the Wave Model (WAM) offshore and Steady-State Irregular Wave (STWAVE) nearshore wind wave models, and the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) basin to channel-scale unstructured grid circulation model. The system emphasizes a high-resolution (down to 50 m) representation of the geometry, bathymetry, and topography; nonlinear coupling of all processes including wind wave radiation stress-induced set up; and objective specification of frictional parameters based on land-cover databases and commonly used parameters. Riverine flows and tides are validated for no storm conditions, while winds, wind waves, hydrographs, and high wa...

A High-Resolution Coupled Riverine Flow, Tide, Wind, Wind Wave, and Storm Surge Model for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Part II: Synoptic Description and Analysis of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Abstract Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were powerful storms that impacted southern Louisiana and Mississippi during the 2005 hurricane season. In Part I, the authors describe and validate a high-resolution coupled riverine flow, tide, wind, wave, and storm surge model for this region. Herein, the model is used to examine the evolution of these hurricanes in more detail. Synoptic histories show how storm tracks, winds, and waves interacted with the topography, the protruding Mississippi River delta, east–west shorelines, manmade structures, and low-lying marshes to develop and propagate storm surge. Perturbations of the model, in which the waves are not included, show the proportional importance of the wave radiation stress gradient induced setup.

Hurricane Gustav (2008) Waves and Storm Surge: Hindcast, Synoptic Analysis, and Validation in Southern Louisiana

AbstractHurricane Gustav (2008) made landfall in southern Louisiana on 1 September 2008 with its eye never closer than 75 km to New Orleans, but its waves and storm surge threatened to flood the city. Easterly tropical-storm-strength winds impacted the region east of the Mississippi River for 12–15 h, allowing for early surge to develop up to 3.5 m there and enter the river and the city’s navigation canals. During landfall, winds shifted from easterly to southerly, resulting in late surge development and propagation over more than 70 km of marshes on the river’s west bank, over more than 40 km of Caernarvon marsh on the east bank, and into Lake Pontchartrain to the north. Wind waves with estimated significant heights of 15 m developed in the deep Gulf of Mexico but were reduced in size once they reached the continental shelf. The barrier islands further dissipated the waves, and locally generated seas existed behind these effective breaking zones.The hardening and innovative deployment of gauges since Hur...

Performance of the Unstructured-Mesh, SWAN+ADCIRC Model in Computing Hurricane Waves and Surge

Coupling wave and circulation models is vital in order to define shelf, nearshore and inland hydrodynamics during a hurricane. The intricacies of the inland floodplain domain, level of required mesh resolution and physics make these complex computations very cycle-intensive. Nonetheless, fast wall-clock times are important, especially when forecasting an incoming hurricane.We examine the performance of the unstructured-mesh, SWAN+ADCIRC wave and circulation model applied to a high-resolution, 5M-vertex, finite-element SL16 mesh of the Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana. This multi-process, multi-scale modeling system has been integrated by utilizing inter-model communication that is intra-core. The modeling system is validated through hindcasts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005), Gustav and Ike (2008) and comprehensive comparisons to wave and water level measurements throughout the region. The performance is tested on a variety of platforms, via the examination of output file requirements and management, and the establishment of wall-clock times and scalability using up to 9,216 cores. Hindcasts of waves and storm surge can be computed efficiently, by solving for as many as 2.3⋅1012 unknowns per day of simulation, in as little as 10 minutes of wall-clock time.

Simulating Hurricane Storm Surge in the Lower Mississippi River under Varying Flow Conditions

AbstractHurricanes in southeastern Louisiana develop significant surges within the lower Mississippi River. Storms with strong sustained easterly winds push water into shallow Breton Sound, overtop the river’s east bank south of Pointe a la Hache, Louisiana, penetrate into the river, and are confined by levees on the west bank. The main channel’s width and depth allow surge to propagate rapidly and efficiently up river. This work refines the high-resolution, unstructured mesh, wave current Simulating Waves Nearshore + Advanced Circulation (SWAN+ADCIRC) SL16 model to simulate river flow and hurricane-driven surge within the Mississippi River. A river velocity regime–based variation in bottom friction and a temporally variable riverine flow-driven radiation boundary condition are essential to accurately model these processes for high and/or time-varying flows. The coupled modeling system is validated for riverine flow stage relationships, flow distributions within the distributary systems, tides, and Hurric...

Assessment of ADCIRC's wetting and drying algorithm

The ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model is a finite-element hydrodynamic model based on the generalized wave continuity equation (GWCE). The model assumed fixed land boundaries until a wetting and drying algorithm was implemented by 1. , 2. . The algorithm uses an element-based approach, effectively turning elements on and off based on water depths and a water level gradient. While robust in some simulations, the algorithm can be subject to instabilities in the solution during highly nonlinear events. Thus, a rigorous assessment of the algorithms stability, accuracy, mass balance properties, and parameter sensitivity under a variety of conditions is needed. Herein, we examine these issues using a one-dimensional implementation of the wetting and drying algorithm for basins with a linear slope; future studies will examine a wider variety of real and idealized basins. We believe the results of this work will benefit similar studies in two- or three-dimensions, for users and developers of both ADCIRC and other finite element models.

Real-Time Forecasting and Visualization of Hurricane Waves and Storm Surge Using SWAN+ADCIRC and FigureGen

Storm surge due to hurricanes and tropical storms can result in significant loss of life, property damage, and long-term damage to coastal ecosystems and landscapes. Computer modeling of storm surge is useful for two primary purposes: forecasting of storm impacts for response planning, particularly the evacuation of vulnerable coastal populations; and hindcasting of storms for determining risk, development of mitigation strategies, coastal restoration, and sustainability. Model results must be communicated quickly and effectively, to provide context about the magnitudes and locations of the maximum waves and surges in time for meaningful actions to be taken in the impact region before a storm strikes.In this paper, we present an overview of the SWAN + ADCIRC modeling system for coastal waves and circulation. We also describe FigureGen, a graphics program adapted to visualize hurricane waves and storm surge as computed by these models. The system was applied recently to forecast Hurricane Isaac (2012) as it made landfall in southern Louisiana. Model results are shown to be an accurate warning of the impacts of waves and circulation along the northern Gulf coastline, especially when communicated to emergency managers as geo-referenced images.

Surge Generation Mechanisms in the Lower Mississippi River and Discharge Dependency

AbstractThe Lower Mississippi River protrudes into the Gulf of Mexico, and manmade levees line only the west bank for 55 km of the Lower Plaquemines section. Historically, sustained easterly winds from hurricanes have directed surge across Breton Sound, into the Mississippi River and against its west bank levee, allowing for surge to build and then propagate efficiently upriver and thus increase water levels past New Orleans. This case study applies a new and extensively validated basin- to channel-scale, high-resolution, unstructured-mesh ADvanced CIRCulation model to simulate a suite of historical and hypothetical storms under low to high river discharges. The results show that during hurricanes, (1) total water levels in the lower river south of Pointe a La Hache are only weakly dependent on river flow, and easterly wind-driven storm surge is generated on top of existing ambient strongly flow-dependent river stages, so the surge that propagates upriver reduces with increasing river flow; (2) natural le...

Sensitivity of storm surge predictions to atmospheric forcing during Hurricane Isaac

Storm surge and overland flooding can be predicted with computational models at high levels of resolution. To improve efficiency in forecasting applications, surge models often use atmospheric forcing from parametric vortex models, which represent the surface pressures and wind fields with a few storm parameters. The future of storm surge prediction could involve real-time coupling of surge and full-physics atmospheric models; thus, their accuracies must be understood in a real hurricane scenario. The authors compare predictions from a parametric vortex model (using forecast tracks from the National Hurricane Center) and a full-physics coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model during Hurricane Isaac (2012). The predictions are then applied within a tightly coupled, wave and surge modeling system describing the northern Gulf of Mexico and the floodplains of southwest Louisiana. It is shown that, in a hindcast scenario, a parametric vortex model can outperform a data-assimilated wind product, and given reasonable forecast advisories, a parametric vortex model gives reasonable surge forecasts. However, forecasts using a full-physics coupled model outperformed the forecast advisories and improved surge forecasts. Both approaches are valuable for forecasting the coastal impacts associated with tropical cyclones. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000419.

The surge standard for “events of Katrina magnitude”

Hurricane Katrina was historic in magnitude. From ref. 1: “The large size of Katrina throughout its history, combined with the extreme waves generated during its most intense phase, enabled this storm to produce the largest storm surges (reliable observations up to 28 ft) that have ever been observed within the Gulf of Mexico, as determined from analyses of historical records.” The analysis by Grinsted et al. (2) of the effects of rising temperatures on the frequency of Atlantic hurricane surge invokes “events of Katrina magnitude” as a standard by which other events are judged. However, we believe the Katrina benchmark, as used, is seriously flawed, in large part because the tide gauge spatial resolution used was so coarse that none of the locations forming the index ever experienced a true surge event of Katrina magnitude. This casts doubt on the claim that Katrina-level surge events may occur many times per decade by the late 21st century.