J.C.J.M. van den Bergh

Evaluation of risks of metal flows and accumulation in economy and environment

The contrast between, on the one hand, decreasing emissions of the metals cadmium, copper, lead and zinc and, on the other, their continuously increasing input into the economy is analysed for three case studies: The Netherlands as a whole, the Dutch housing sector and the Dutch agricultural sector. Flows of these metals through and their accumulation within the economy and the environment have been quantified for 1990 and for a constructed steady-state situation. To this end, the substance flow analysis method has been applied. The case studies show that there is a strong increase to be expected in the emissions from the 1990 to the steady-state situation. This increase is mainly due to the shift from landfill accumulation to emission to non-agricultural soil. At the same time, however, there is also an increase in the emissions to other media: air, water and agricultural soil. Emissions along these critical routes with respect to human and ecotoxicity show an approximately 30% increase for cadmium, lead and zinc and more than a doubling for copper. It is shown that this increase may lead to the surpassing of critical levels for human toxicity and terrestrial and aquatic ecotoxicity. Some possible measures are suggested to prevent critical levels being exceeded.

Cumulative CO2 emissions: shifting international responsibilities for climate debt

In contrast to many discussions based on annual emissions, this article presents calculations and projections of cumulative contributions to the stock of atmospheric CO2 by the major players, China, Europe, India, Japan and the USA, for the period 1900–2080. Although relative contributions to the climate problem are changing dramatically, notably due to the rapid industrialization of China, long-term responsibilities for enhanced global warming have not been transparently quantified in the literature. The analysis shows that if current trends continue, by the middle of this century China will overtake the USA as the major cumulative contributor to atmospheric concentrations of CO2. This has enormous implications for the debate on the ethical responsibilities of the major greenhouse gas emitters. Effective climate policy will require both the recognition of shared responsibility and an unprecedented degree of cooperation.

Individual preferences for reducing flood risk to near zero through elevation

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Adaptation investments are required in order to limit the projected increase in natural disaster risks. Adaptation measures can reduce risk partially or completely eliminate risk. The literature on behavioural economics suggests that individuals rarely undertake measures that limit risk partially, while they may place a considerable value on measures that reduce risk to zero. This is studied for a case of adaptation to climate change and its effects on flood risk in the Netherlands. In particular, we examine whether households are willing to invest in elevating newly built structures when this is framed as eliminating flood risk. The results indicate that a majority of homeowners (52%) is willing to make a substantial investment of €10,000 to elevate a new house to a level that is safe to flooding. Differences between willingness to pay (WTP) for flood insurance and WTP for risk elimination through elevation indicate that individuals place a considerable value on the latter adaptation option. This study estimates that the “safety premium” which individuals place on risk elimination is approximately between €35 and €45 per month. The existence of a safety premium has important implications for the design of climate change adaptation policies. The decision to invest in elevating homes is significantly correlated with the expected negative effects of climate change, perceptions of flood risks, individual risk attitudes, and living close to a main river.

Managing natural disaster risks in a changing climate

Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity during the last few decades, causing considerable economic damage and loss of life. A combination of climate and socio-economic change is likely to augment disaster loss trends in the future, creating the need for more sophisticated disaster risk management. A resilient risk management strategy for uncertain low-probability, high-impact risks comprises a package of measures focused on disaster risk prevention, damage mitigation and arrangements for efficient risk sharing. Possible implications of climate change on future risks and risk management policies are outlined. It is argued that financial arrangements such as insurance can play an important role in an adaptation strategy aimed at limiting and ameliorating socio-economic impacts of natural disasters.

Rebound policy in the Paris Agreement: instrument comparison and climate-club revenue offsets

It is argued that without an international climate treaty, or with a soft treaty in the form of voluntary pledges, well-intended local and national climate strategies will seriously rebound in terms of energy use and CO2 emissions. I unravel the complexity of rebound in an international context, for which purpose the distinction between national and international rebound is introduced. The main climate–energy strategies and policies are assessed based on their capacity to control rebound, with carbon pricing – especially cap-and-trade – appearing to be the best approach. It is argued that motivations for further negotiations on amendments to the recent Paris climate agreement, namely on national policy coordination, can be strengthened by rebound concerns. As part of this, a new suggestion is to complement carbon equalization tariffs on carbon-intensive goods imported from countries with weak or non-existent climate policies with ‘revenue-recycling offsets’. These offsets would ease the political way to i...It is argued that without an international climate treaty, or with a soft treaty in the form of voluntary pledges, well-intended local and national climate strategies will seriously rebound in terms of energy use and CO2 emissions. I unravel the complexity of rebound in an international context, for which purpose the distinction between national and international rebound is introduced. The main climate–energy strategies and policies are assessed based on their capacity to control rebound, with carbon pricing – especially cap-and-trade – appearing to be the best approach. It is argued that motivations for further negotiations on amendments to the recent Paris climate agreement, namely on national policy coordination, can be strengthened by rebound concerns. As part of this, a new suggestion is to complement carbon equalization tariffs on carbon-intensive goods imported from countries with weak or non-existent climate policies with ‘revenue-recycling offsets’. These offsets would ease the political way to implementing carbon equalization tariffs, in turn creating pressure on countries to sign an effective climate treaty – a requirement to achieve consistent and serious carbon pricing worldwide. To support these arguments, the empirical patterns of rebound estimates are broadly outlined. Policy relevance Rebound is given scant attention in both IPCC documents and UNFCCC climate summits, where climate agreements are negotiated. This article argues that without an international climate treaty, or with a soft treaty in the form of voluntary pledges, as characterizes the recent Paris climate agreement, well-intended local and national climate strategies will seriously rebound in terms of CO2 emissions. This means that the motivations for climate negotiations can be strengthened by drawing attention to rebound concerns. The major current climate–energy strategies and policies are assessed on the basis of their capacity to control rebound, with carbon pricing – notably cap-and-trade – revealed to be the best approach. Further analysis and discussion of this is welcome, especially as rebound is neglected in the comparisons of carbon tax and emissions trading solutions to global warming. In particular, rebound should be added to the set of core criteria for judging and comparing instruments of climate policy. In addition, a new suggestion offered is to complement a climate club with carbon equalization tariffs on carbon-intensive goods imported from countries lacking strong climate policy with ‘revenue-recycling offsets’. This would make the implementation of such tariffs more politically feasible as well as creating pressure on countries to sign an effective climate treaty.