J.D. Kofinas

Assessing morphokinetic parameters via time lapse microscopy (TLM) to predict euploidy: are aneuploidy risk classification models universal?

PurposeTo determine if Aneuploidy Risk Classification Models are predictive of euploidy/aneuploidy amongst IVF facilities.MethodsWe retrospectively applied key time lapse imaging events of embryos (Campbell et al.[5, 6]) to stratify embryos into 3 groups: low, medium and high risk of aneuploidy. The actual ploidy results (from array comparative genomic hybridization) were compared with expectations [5, 6]. Sources of variability in morphokinetic parameters were determined using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA).ResultsThe model failed to segregate euploid embryos from aneuploid embryos cultured at our facility. Further analysis indicated that the variability of embryos among patients was too great to allow selection of euploid embryos based on simple morphokinetic thresholds. Clinical selection of embryos based on morphokinetics alone is unlikely to identify euploid embryos accurately for transfer or yield higher rates of live delivery.ConclusionsThe use of non-invasive morphokinetics is unlikely to discriminate aneuploid from euploid embryos. Further, it does not approach the accuracy of preimplantation genetic screening with array comparative genomic hybridization.

Serum progesterone trend after day of transfer predicts live birth in fresh IVF cycles

PurposeOur objective was to determine if a change in serum P4 from day of transfer (defined as day 19) to day 28 could predict live birth outcome in patients undergoing IVF.MethodsThis study was a retrospective analysis of fresh IVF cycles from 2010 to 2013 at a single center. Primary outcomes include raw and percent change in serum P4, live birth rate, missed abortion, and biochemical pregnancies.ResultsOur results showed an association between live birth rate and percent change in P4. Patients with a 10% or greater drop in serum P4 from day 19 to day 28 had a lower live birth rate, at 26 versus 63%. Interestingly, both groups had “normal” serum P4 levels on day 19, but patients with a 10% or greater drop had lower P4 levels than their counterparts. There was no association between percent P4 change and spontaneous abortion or biochemical pregnancy.ConclusionsThis is the first study to show that percent drop in serum P4 from day of transfer to day 28 is associated with decreased rates of live birth and ongoing pregnancy in fresh IVF cycles, even despite “high or normal” P4 levels on day of transfer.