J. Grant C. Hopcraft

Herbivores, resources and risks: alternating regulation along primary environmental gradients in savannas

Herbivores are regulated by predation under certain environmental conditions, whereas under others they are limited by forage abundance and nutritional quality. Whether top-down or bottom-up regulation prevails depends both on abiotic constraints on forage availability and body size, because size simultaneously affects the risk of predation of herbivores and their nutritional demands. Consequently, ecosystems composed of similar species can have different dynamics if they differ in resource supply. Here, we use large herbivore assemblages in African savanna ecosystems to develop a framework that connects environmental gradients and disturbance patterns with body size and trophic structure. This framework provides a model for understanding the functioning and diversity of ecosystems in general, and unifies how top-down and bottom-up mechanisms depend on common underlying environmental gradients.

SERENGETI WILDEBEEST MIGRATORY PATTERNS MODELED FROM RAINFALL AND NEW VEGETATION GROWTH

We used evolutionary programming to model innate migratory pathways of wildebeest in the Serengeti Mara Ecosystem, Tanzania and Kenya. Wildebeest annually move from the southern short-grass plains of the Serengeti to the northern woodlands of the Mara. We used satellite images to create 12 average monthly and 180 10-day surfaces from 1998 to 2003 of percentage rainfall and new vegetation. The surfaces were combined in five additive and three multiplicative models, with the weightings on rainfall and new vegetation from 0% to 100%. Modeled wildebeest were first assigned random migration pathways. In simulated generations, animals best able to access rainfall and vegetation were retained, and they produced offspring with similar migratory pathways. Modeling proceeded until the best pathway was stable. In a learning phase, modeling continued with the ten-day images in the objective function. The additive model, influenced 25% by rainfall and 75% by vegetation growth, yielded the best agreement, with a multi-resolution comparison to observed densities yielding 76.8% of blocks in agreement (kappa = 0.32). Agreement was best for dry season and early wet season (kappa = 0.22-0.57), and poorest for the late wet season (0.04). The model suggests that new forage growth is a dominant correlate of wildebeest migration.

Landscape-scale analyses suggest both nutrient and antipredator advantages to Serengeti herbivore hotspots

Mechanistic explanations of herbivore spatial distribution have focused largely on either resource-related (bottom-up) or predation-related (top-down) factors. We studied direct and indirect influences on the spatial distributions of Serengeti herbivore hotspots, defined as temporally stable areas inhabited by mixed herds of resident grazers. Remote sensing and variation in landscape features were first used to create a map of the spatial distribution of hotspots, which was tested for accuracy against an independent data set of herbivore observations. Subsequently, we applied structural equation modeling to data on soil fertility and plant quality and quantity across a range of sites. We found that hotspots in Serengeti occur in areas that are relatively flat and located away from rivers, sites where ungulates are less susceptible to predation. Further, hotspots tend to occur in areas where hydrology and rainfall create conditions of relatively low-standing plant biomass, which, coupled with grazing, increases forage quality while decreasing predation risk. Low-standing biomass and higher leaf concentrations of N, Na, and Mg were strong direct predictors of hotspot occurrence. Soil fertility had indirect effects on hotspot occurrence by promoting leaf Na and Mg. The results indicate that landscape features contribute in direct and indirect ways to influence the spatial distribution of hotspots and that the best models incorporated both resource- and predation-related factors. Our study highlights the collective and simultaneous role of bottom-up and top-down factors in determining ungulate spatial distributions.

Road will ruin Serengeti

Tanzanias iconic national park must not be divided by a highway, say Andrew Dobson, Markus Borner, Tony Sinclair and 24 others. A route farther south would bring greater benefits to development and the environment.

Evaluating the protection of wildlife in parks: the case of African buffalo in Serengeti

Human population growth rates on the borders of protected areas in Africa are nearly double the average rural growth, suggesting that protected areas attract human settlement. Increasing human populations could be a threat to biodiversity through increases in illegal hunting. In the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania, there have been marked declines in black rhino (Diceros bicornis), elephant (Loxodonta africana) and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) inside the protected area during a period when there was a reduction of protection through anti-poaching effort (1976–1996). Subsequently, protection effort has increased and has remained stable. During both periods there were major differences in population decline and recovery in different areas. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the possible causes of the spatial differences. We used a spatially structured population model to analyze the impacts of three factors—(i) hunting, (ii) food shortage and (iii) natural predation. Population changes were best explained by illegal hunting but model fit improved with the addition of predation mortality and the effect of food supply in areas where hunting was least. We used a GIS analysis to determine variation in human settlement rates and related those rates to intrinsic population changes in buffalo. Buffalo populations in close proximity to areas with higher rates of human settlement had low or negative rates of increase and were slowest to recover or failed to recover at all. The increase in human populations along the western boundary of the Serengeti ecosystem has led to negative consequences for wildlife populations, pointing to the need for enforcement of wildlife laws to mitigate these effects.

Dynamics of a morbillivirus at the domestic -wildlife interface

Significance Morbilliviruses are a growing concern because of their ability to infect multiple species. The spill-over of canine distemper virus (CDV) from domestic dogs has been associated with severe declines in wild carnivores worldwide, and therefore mass dog vaccination has been suggested as a potential control strategy. Focusing on three decades of CDV exposure data in dogs and lions of the Serengeti, we show that cyclic infection dynamics in lions initially driven by dogs became more frequent and asynchronous, suggesting that the wider dog population and other wildlife species drive CDV dynamics. Hence, although widespread dog vaccination reduced the infection in dogs, transmission to lion populations still occurred, warranting further investigation into effective management options of CDV in this species-rich ecosystem. Morbilliviruses cause many diseases of medical and veterinary importance, and although some (e.g., measles and rinderpest) have been controlled successfully, others, such as canine distemper virus (CDV), are a growing concern. A propensity for host-switching has resulted in CDV emergence in new species, including endangered wildlife, posing challenges for controlling disease in multispecies communities. CDV is typically associated with domestic dogs, but little is known about its maintenance and transmission in species-rich areas or about the potential role of domestic dog vaccination as a means of reducing disease threats to wildlife. We address these questions by analyzing a long-term serological dataset of CDV in lions and domestic dogs from Tanzania’s Serengeti ecosystem. Using a Bayesian state–space model, we show that dynamics of CDV have changed considerably over the past three decades. Initially, peaks of CDV infection in dogs preceded those in lions, suggesting that spill-over from dogs was the main driver of infection in wildlife. However, despite dog-to-lion transmission dominating cross-species transmission models, infection peaks in lions became more frequent and asynchronous from those in dogs, suggesting that other wildlife species may play a role in a potentially complex maintenance community. Widespread mass vaccination of domestic dogs reduced the probability of infection in dogs and the size of outbreaks but did not prevent transmission to or peaks of infection in lions. This study demonstrates the complexity of CDV dynamics in natural ecosystems and the value of long-term, large-scale datasets for investigating transmission patterns and evaluating disease control strategies.

Competition, predation, and migration: Individual choice patterns of Serengeti migrants captured by hierarchical models

Large-herbivore migrations occur across gradients of food quality or food abundance that are generally determined by underlying geographic patterns in rainfall, elevation, or latitude, in turn causing variation in the degree of interspecific competition and the exposure to predators. However, the role of top-down effects of predation as opposed to the bottom-up effects of competition for resources in shaping migrations is not well understood. We studied 30 GPS radio-collared wildebeest and zebra migrating seasonally in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem to ask how predation and food availability differentially affect the individual movement patterns of these co-migrating species. A hierarchical analysis of movement trajectories (directions and distances) in relation to grass biomass, high-quality food patches, and predation risk show that wildebeest tend to move in response to food quality, with little attention to predation risk. In contrast, individual zebra movements reflect a balance between the risk of predation and the access to high-quality food of sufficient biomass. Our analysis shows how two migratory species move in response to different attributes of the same landscape. Counterintuitively and in contrast to most other animal movement studies, we find that both species move farther each day when resources are locally abundant than when they are scarce. During the wet season when the quality of grazing is at its peak, both wildebeest and zebra move the greatest distances and do not settle in localized areas to graze for extended periods. We propose that this punctuated movement in high-quality patches is explained by density dependency, whereby large groups of competing individuals (up to 1.65 million grazers) rapidly deplete the localized grazing opportunities. These findings capture the roles of predation and competition in shaping animal migrations, which are often claimed but rarely measured.

Developing fencing policies for dryland ecosystems

In dryland ecosystems, mobility is essential for both wildlife and people to access unpredictable and spatially heterogeneous resources, particularly in the face of climate change. Fences can prevent connectivity vital for this mobility. There are recent calls for large-scale barrier fencing interventions to address human–wildlife conflict and illegal resource extraction. Fencing has costs and benefits to people and wildlife. However, the evidence available for facilitating sound decision-making for fencing initiatives is limited, particularly for drylands. We identify six research areas that are key to informing evaluations of fencing initiatives: economics, edge permeability, reserve design, connectivity, ecosystem services and communities. Policy implications. Implementing this research agenda to evaluate fencing interventions in dryland ecosystems will enable better management and policy decisions. The United Nations Conventions on Migratory Species (CMS) and to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) are appropriate international agreements for moving this agenda forward and leading the development of policies and guidelines on fencing in drylands.

African vultures don't follow migratory herds: scavenger habitat use is not mediated by prey abundance.

The ongoing global decline in vulture populations raises major conservation concerns, but little is known about the factors that mediate scavenger habitat use, in particular the importance of abundance of live prey versus prey mortality. We test this using data from the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem in East Africa. The two hypotheses that prey abundance or prey mortality are the main drivers of vulture habitat use provide alternative predictions. If vultures select areas based only on prey abundance, we expect tracked vultures to remain close to herds of migratory wildebeest regardless of season. However, if vultures select areas where mortality rates are greatest then we expect vultures to select the driest regions, where animals are more likely to die of starvation, and to be attracted to migratory wildebeest only during the dry season when wildebeest mortality is greatest. We used data from GSM-GPS transmitters to assess the relationship between three vulture species and migratory wildebeest in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. Results indicate that vultures preferentially cluster around migratory herds only during the dry season, when herds experience their highest mortality. Additionally during the wet season, Ruppell’s and Lappet-faced vultures select relatively dry areas, based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, whereas White-backed vultures preferred wetter areas during the wet season. Differences in habitat use among species may mediate coexistence in this scavenger guild. In general, our results suggest that prey abundance is not the primary driver of avian scavenger habitat use. The apparent reliance of vultures on non-migratory ungulates during the wet season has important conservation implications for vultures in light of on-going declines in non-migratory ungulate species and use of poisons in unprotected areas.

Evaluating the Potential for the Environmentally Sustainable Control of Foot and Mouth Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

Strategies to control transboundary diseases have in the past generated unintended negative consequences for both the environment and local human populations. Integrating perspectives from across disciplines, including livestock, veterinary and conservation sectors, is necessary for identifying disease control strategies that optimise environmental goods and services at the wildlife-livestock interface. Prompted by the recent development of a global strategy for the control and elimination of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), this paper seeks insight into the consequences of, and rational options for potential FMD control measures in relation to environmental, conservation and human poverty considerations in Africa. We suggest a more environmentally nuanced process of FMD control that safe-guards the integrity of wild populations and the ecosystem dynamics on which human livelihoods depend while simultaneously improving socio-economic conditions of rural people. In particular, we outline five major issues that need to be considered: 1) improved understanding of the different FMD viral strains and how they circulate between domestic and wildlife populations; 2) an appreciation for the economic value of wildlife for many African countries whose presence might preclude the country from ever achieving an FMD-free status; 3) exploring ways in which livestock production can be improved without compromising wildlife such as implementing commodity-based trading schemes; 4) introducing a participatory approach involving local farmers and the national veterinary services in the control of FMD; and 5) finally the possibility that transfrontier conservation might offer new hope of integrating decision-making at the wildlife-livestock interface.