J. Hallas

Risk of non-melanoma skin cancer in myasthenia patients treated with azathioprine.

The association between use of azathioprine and risk of non‐melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in patients with myasthenia was evaluated in a nationwide setting. Treatment of autoimmune myasthenia frequently involves long‐term exposure to immunosuppressants, including azathioprine. Use of azathioprine increases the risk of NMSC in organ recipients and probably also in patients with other autoimmune disorders. No previous study has specifically investigated the risk of NMSC in myasthenia patients treated with azathioprine.

Permanent user bias in case-Crossover studies in pharmacoepidemiology

Background: Sudden discontinuation of some antihypertensive agents such as beta-blockers and centrally acting antihypertensive agents are associated with increased risk of acute coronary events. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the association between discontinuation of different antihypertensive agents and the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: A nested case control study was performed in a cohort of antihypertensive drug users from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Pharmacogenetics (UCP) database. Within this cohort, patients who were hospitalized for first AMI were considered cases. Cases were matched (1 up to 4) to controls at the same AMI date (index date). Antihypertensive users were defined as current users if the index date fell within prescribed duration or as stoppers if this date fell outside the prescribed duration. According to recency of stopping, stoppers were divided into recent stoppers (≤90 days), intermediate-term stoppers (91-180 days), and longterm stoppers (>180 days). The study included only antihypertensive users who were specifically current users or stoppers of one antihypertensive agent. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between the discontinuation of antihypertensive agents and the risk of AMI and to control for confounding. Results: We included 1245 cases and 4994 controls in our analysis. The risk of AMI was significantly increased with all stoppers of beta-blockers (adjusted OR: 1.54, 95%CI (1.25-1.90)), calcium channel blockers (CCBs) (adjusted OR: 2.25, 95%CI (1.53- 3.30)), and diuretics (adjusted OR: 1.76, 95%CI (1.24-2.48)) compared with current users. Moreover, the risk of AMI was significantly increased for longterm stoppers (beta-blockers, CCBs, angiotensinconverting enzyme inhibitors, and diuretics) and intermediate- term stoppers (beta-blockers and CCBs) versus current users. There was no difference in AMI risk between recent stoppers of antihypertensive agents versus current users. Conclusions: Discontinuation of antihypertensive agents increases the risk of AMI after more than 90 days of stopping. Adherence to antihypertensive agents plays an important role in reducing the risk of AMI in patients with hypertension.Background: It has been reported that patients with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) have a decreased lung function. Studies on the association of T1DM and asthma in children show controversial results. Objectives: The aim of this study was to quantify asthma medication use in children and adolescents with and without (reference cohort) T1DM 5 years before and after the onset of diabetes. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted in the Dutch PHARMO Record Linkage System. All children (1. Modelling of Endpoint Postponement for All-Cause Mortality in Statin Trials Morten Rix Hansen, Anton Pottegård, Asbjørn Hróbjartsson, Per Damkier, René D Christensen, Kasper Søltoft Larsen, Malene EL Kristensen, Palle M Christensen, Jesper Hallas. Clinical Pharmacology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark; Department of Clinical Chemistry and Pharmacology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; The Nordic Cochrane Centre, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark; Research Unit for General Practice, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark. Background: The average postponement of the outcome event has been proposed as a novel method to present the magnitude of effect for preventive medications. This measure has been shown to have better agreement with patient preferences than conventional outcomemeasures, including the “number needed to treat” (NNT), possibly because it is more intuitively understood. For some interventions, it may also provide a better theoretical frame for how benefit is distributed among participants than the NNT measure. The aim of this study was to present a novel method for modelling endpoint postponement (EP) from trial data and compare it with the usual approach of measuring the area between survival curves. We also present a formalized meta-analysis of modelled EP for all-cause mortality in statin trials. Methods: We identified 17 placebo-controlled statin trials that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Eleven of these presented Kaplan–Meier curves for all-cause mortality. Average EP was calculated as the area between Kaplan–Meier curves by counting pixels on magnified prints for these 11 trials. The modelled EP was computed for all trials on the basis of (1) hazard ratio, relative risk or odds ratio; (2) the cumulative event rate in the untreated group; and (3) the trial’s running time. The underlying assumption was that the mortality was reasonably stable within the trials’ running time. The modelled EP was subjected to a meta-analysis, using inverse variance weighting in a random effect model. Results: EPswere generally small for estimates based on pixel-counting, 10 and 27days for trials both primary and secondary intervention that typically ran over 1.9– 6.1years. The modelled EPs varied between 2 and 34days. The difference between modeled EP and EP based on pixel-counting was between 8 and 12days. The results of the meta-analyses will be presented at the meeting. Conclusions: Based on these trial data, statin treatment results in a surprisingly small gain in average survival. Our modelled EP estimates agreed reasonably with EPs based on pixel-counting. The modeled EP is amenable to meta-analyses and may be a useful approach to presenting the benefit of preventive treatment. 2. Permanent User Bias in Case–Crossover Studies in Pharmacoepidemiology Jesper Hallas, Shirley V. Wang, Joshua J. Gagne, Sebastian Schneeweiss, Anton Pottegård. Clinical Pharmacology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense C, Denmark; Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. Background: In pharmacoepidemiology, the case– crossover design is based on cases that have contrasting drug exposure at the time of an event and at a reference time in the past. If the drug in question should be taken permanently, only certain exposure patterns will occur. These patients cannot be unexposed at the event time and exposed at the reference time, while the opposite pattern can occur if the drug was initiated recently. The resulting odds ratio (OR) would thus be biased upward. As many drugs have a subpopulation of permanent users, this bias might pervade many case–crossover analyses of drug effects. Objectives: The aims of this study were to demonstrate this “permanent user bias” and to evaluate whether it can be remedied by including a control group (case–time–control design). Methods: Using nationwide Danish data resources, we conducted case–crossover and case–time–control analyses for combinations of three exposures that are

Statin use and risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer: a nationwide study in Denmark

Background:Evidence is conflicting regarding statin use and risk of basal cell (BCC) and squamous cell skin cancer (SCC).Methods:Using Danish nationwide registries, we identified all patients with incident BCC/SCC during 2005–2009 and matched them to population controls. We computed odds ratios (ORs) for BCC and SCC associated with statin use.Results:We identified 38u2009484 cases of BCC and 3724 cases of SCC. Statin ever use was associated with ORs of 1.09 (CI: 1.06–1.13) for BCC and 1.01 (CI: 0.91–1.11) for SCC.Conclusions:Statin use was not associated with risk of SCC. Residual confounding plausibly explains the marginally increased risk of BCC.

Persistent User Bias in Case-Crossover Studies in Pharmacoepidemiology

Studying the effect of chronic medication exposure by means of a case-crossover design may result in an upward-biased odds ratio. In this study, our aim was to assess the occurrence of this bias and to evaluate whether it is remedied by including a control group (the case-time-control design). Using Danish data resources from 1995-2012, we conducted case-crossover and case-time-control analyses for 3 medications (statins, insulin, and thyroxine) in relation to 3 outcomes (retinal detachment, wrist fracture, and ischemic stroke), all with assumed null associations. Controls were matched on age, sex, and index date, and exposure over the preceding 12 months was ascertained. For retinal detachment, the case-crossover odds ratio was 1.60 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42, 1.80) for statins, 1.40 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.92) for thyroxine, and 1.53 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.24) for insulin. Estimates for the retinal detachment controls were similar, leading to near-null case-time-control estimates for all 3 medication classes. For wrist fracture and stroke, the odds ratios were higher for cases than for controls, and case-time-control odds ratios were consistently above unity, thus implying significant residual bias. In case-crossover studies of medications, contamination by persistent users confers a moderate bias upward, which is partly remedied by using a control group. The optimal strategy for dealing with this problem is currently unknown.

Modelling of endpoint postponement for all-cause mortality in statin trials

Background: Sudden discontinuation of some antihypertensive agents such as beta-blockers and centrally acting antihypertensive agents are associated with increased risk of acute coronary events. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the association between discontinuation of different antihypertensive agents and the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: A nested case control study was performed in a cohort of antihypertensive drug users from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Pharmacogenetics (UCP) database. Within this cohort, patients who were hospitalized for first AMI were considered cases. Cases were matched (1 up to 4) to controls at the same AMI date (index date). Antihypertensive users were defined as current users if the index date fell within prescribed duration or as stoppers if this date fell outside the prescribed duration. According to recency of stopping, stoppers were divided into recent stoppers (≤90 days), intermediate-term stoppers (91-180 days), and longterm stoppers (>180 days). The study included only antihypertensive users who were specifically current users or stoppers of one antihypertensive agent. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between the discontinuation of antihypertensive agents and the risk of AMI and to control for confounding. Results: We included 1245 cases and 4994 controls in our analysis. The risk of AMI was significantly increased with all stoppers of beta-blockers (adjusted OR: 1.54, 95%CI (1.25-1.90)), calcium channel blockers (CCBs) (adjusted OR: 2.25, 95%CI (1.53- 3.30)), and diuretics (adjusted OR: 1.76, 95%CI (1.24-2.48)) compared with current users. Moreover, the risk of AMI was significantly increased for longterm stoppers (beta-blockers, CCBs, angiotensinconverting enzyme inhibitors, and diuretics) and intermediate- term stoppers (beta-blockers and CCBs) versus current users. There was no difference in AMI risk between recent stoppers of antihypertensive agents versus current users. Conclusions: Discontinuation of antihypertensive agents increases the risk of AMI after more than 90 days of stopping. Adherence to antihypertensive agents plays an important role in reducing the risk of AMI in patients with hypertension.Background: It has been reported that patients with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) have a decreased lung function. Studies on the association of T1DM and asthma in children show controversial results. Objectives: The aim of this study was to quantify asthma medication use in children and adolescents with and without (reference cohort) T1DM 5 years before and after the onset of diabetes. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted in the Dutch PHARMO Record Linkage System. All children (1. Modelling of Endpoint Postponement for All-Cause Mortality in Statin Trials Morten Rix Hansen, Anton Pottegård, Asbjørn Hróbjartsson, Per Damkier, René D Christensen, Kasper Søltoft Larsen, Malene EL Kristensen, Palle M Christensen, Jesper Hallas. Clinical Pharmacology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark; Department of Clinical Chemistry and Pharmacology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; The Nordic Cochrane Centre, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark; Research Unit for General Practice, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark. Background: The average postponement of the outcome event has been proposed as a novel method to present the magnitude of effect for preventive medications. This measure has been shown to have better agreement with patient preferences than conventional outcomemeasures, including the “number needed to treat” (NNT), possibly because it is more intuitively understood. For some interventions, it may also provide a better theoretical frame for how benefit is distributed among participants than the NNT measure. The aim of this study was to present a novel method for modelling endpoint postponement (EP) from trial data and compare it with the usual approach of measuring the area between survival curves. We also present a formalized meta-analysis of modelled EP for all-cause mortality in statin trials. Methods: We identified 17 placebo-controlled statin trials that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Eleven of these presented Kaplan–Meier curves for all-cause mortality. Average EP was calculated as the area between Kaplan–Meier curves by counting pixels on magnified prints for these 11 trials. The modelled EP was computed for all trials on the basis of (1) hazard ratio, relative risk or odds ratio; (2) the cumulative event rate in the untreated group; and (3) the trial’s running time. The underlying assumption was that the mortality was reasonably stable within the trials’ running time. The modelled EP was subjected to a meta-analysis, using inverse variance weighting in a random effect model. Results: EPswere generally small for estimates based on pixel-counting, 10 and 27days for trials both primary and secondary intervention that typically ran over 1.9– 6.1years. The modelled EPs varied between 2 and 34days. The difference between modeled EP and EP based on pixel-counting was between 8 and 12days. The results of the meta-analyses will be presented at the meeting. Conclusions: Based on these trial data, statin treatment results in a surprisingly small gain in average survival. Our modelled EP estimates agreed reasonably with EPs based on pixel-counting. The modeled EP is amenable to meta-analyses and may be a useful approach to presenting the benefit of preventive treatment. 2. Permanent User Bias in Case–Crossover Studies in Pharmacoepidemiology Jesper Hallas, Shirley V. Wang, Joshua J. Gagne, Sebastian Schneeweiss, Anton Pottegård. Clinical Pharmacology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense C, Denmark; Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. Background: In pharmacoepidemiology, the case– crossover design is based on cases that have contrasting drug exposure at the time of an event and at a reference time in the past. If the drug in question should be taken permanently, only certain exposure patterns will occur. These patients cannot be unexposed at the event time and exposed at the reference time, while the opposite pattern can occur if the drug was initiated recently. The resulting odds ratio (OR) would thus be biased upward. As many drugs have a subpopulation of permanent users, this bias might pervade many case–crossover analyses of drug effects. Objectives: The aims of this study were to demonstrate this “permanent user bias” and to evaluate whether it can be remedied by including a control group (case–time–control design). Methods: Using nationwide Danish data resources, we conducted case–crossover and case–time–control analyses for combinations of three exposures that are

Impact of urate level on cardiovascular risk in allopurinol-treated patients: A nested case-control study

Background: Sudden discontinuation of some antihypertensive agents such as beta-blockers and centrally acting antihypertensive agents are associated with increased risk of acute coronary events. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the association between discontinuation of different antihypertensive agents and the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: A nested case control study was performed in a cohort of antihypertensive drug users from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Pharmacogenetics (UCP) database. Within this cohort, patients who were hospitalized for first AMI were considered cases. Cases were matched (1 up to 4) to controls at the same AMI date (index date). Antihypertensive users were defined as current users if the index date fell within prescribed duration or as stoppers if this date fell outside the prescribed duration. According to recency of stopping, stoppers were divided into recent stoppers (≤90 days), intermediate-term stoppers (91-180 days), and longterm stoppers (>180 days). The study included only antihypertensive users who were specifically current users or stoppers of one antihypertensive agent. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between the discontinuation of antihypertensive agents and the risk of AMI and to control for confounding. Results: We included 1245 cases and 4994 controls in our analysis. The risk of AMI was significantly increased with all stoppers of beta-blockers (adjusted OR: 1.54, 95%CI (1.25-1.90)), calcium channel blockers (CCBs) (adjusted OR: 2.25, 95%CI (1.53- 3.30)), and diuretics (adjusted OR: 1.76, 95%CI (1.24-2.48)) compared with current users. Moreover, the risk of AMI was significantly increased for longterm stoppers (beta-blockers, CCBs, angiotensinconverting enzyme inhibitors, and diuretics) and intermediate- term stoppers (beta-blockers and CCBs) versus current users. There was no difference in AMI risk between recent stoppers of antihypertensive agents versus current users. Conclusions: Discontinuation of antihypertensive agents increases the risk of AMI after more than 90 days of stopping. Adherence to antihypertensive agents plays an important role in reducing the risk of AMI in patients with hypertension.Background: It has been reported that patients with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) have a decreased lung function. Studies on the association of T1DM and asthma in children show controversial results. Objectives: The aim of this study was to quantify asthma medication use in children and adolescents with and without (reference cohort) T1DM 5 years before and after the onset of diabetes. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted in the Dutch PHARMO Record Linkage System. All children (1. Modelling of Endpoint Postponement for All-Cause Mortality in Statin Trials Morten Rix Hansen, Anton Pottegård, Asbjørn Hróbjartsson, Per Damkier, René D Christensen, Kasper Søltoft Larsen, Malene EL Kristensen, Palle M Christensen, Jesper Hallas. Clinical Pharmacology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark; Department of Clinical Chemistry and Pharmacology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; The Nordic Cochrane Centre, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark; Research Unit for General Practice, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark. Background: The average postponement of the outcome event has been proposed as a novel method to present the magnitude of effect for preventive medications. This measure has been shown to have better agreement with patient preferences than conventional outcomemeasures, including the “number needed to treat” (NNT), possibly because it is more intuitively understood. For some interventions, it may also provide a better theoretical frame for how benefit is distributed among participants than the NNT measure. The aim of this study was to present a novel method for modelling endpoint postponement (EP) from trial data and compare it with the usual approach of measuring the area between survival curves. We also present a formalized meta-analysis of modelled EP for all-cause mortality in statin trials. Methods: We identified 17 placebo-controlled statin trials that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Eleven of these presented Kaplan–Meier curves for all-cause mortality. Average EP was calculated as the area between Kaplan–Meier curves by counting pixels on magnified prints for these 11 trials. The modelled EP was computed for all trials on the basis of (1) hazard ratio, relative risk or odds ratio; (2) the cumulative event rate in the untreated group; and (3) the trial’s running time. The underlying assumption was that the mortality was reasonably stable within the trials’ running time. The modelled EP was subjected to a meta-analysis, using inverse variance weighting in a random effect model. Results: EPswere generally small for estimates based on pixel-counting, 10 and 27days for trials both primary and secondary intervention that typically ran over 1.9– 6.1years. The modelled EPs varied between 2 and 34days. The difference between modeled EP and EP based on pixel-counting was between 8 and 12days. The results of the meta-analyses will be presented at the meeting. Conclusions: Based on these trial data, statin treatment results in a surprisingly small gain in average survival. Our modelled EP estimates agreed reasonably with EPs based on pixel-counting. The modeled EP is amenable to meta-analyses and may be a useful approach to presenting the benefit of preventive treatment. 2. Permanent User Bias in Case–Crossover Studies in Pharmacoepidemiology Jesper Hallas, Shirley V. Wang, Joshua J. Gagne, Sebastian Schneeweiss, Anton Pottegård. Clinical Pharmacology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense C, Denmark; Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. Background: In pharmacoepidemiology, the case– crossover design is based on cases that have contrasting drug exposure at the time of an event and at a reference time in the past. If the drug in question should be taken permanently, only certain exposure patterns will occur. These patients cannot be unexposed at the event time and exposed at the reference time, while the opposite pattern can occur if the drug was initiated recently. The resulting odds ratio (OR) would thus be biased upward. As many drugs have a subpopulation of permanent users, this bias might pervade many case–crossover analyses of drug effects. Objectives: The aims of this study were to demonstrate this “permanent user bias” and to evaluate whether it can be remedied by including a control group (case–time–control design). Methods: Using nationwide Danish data resources, we conducted case–crossover and case–time–control analyses for combinations of three exposures that are

Use of antibiotics and risk of type 2 diabetes: a population-based case control study

Abstracts of 51st EASD Annual Meetings of 51st EASD Annual Meeting OP 01 Insulin analogues: Is newer always better?