J. Jaime Miranda

Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: a population-based study

BACKGROUND High body-mass index (BMI; defined as 25 kg/m(2) or greater) is associated with increased risk of cancer. To inform public health policy and future research, we estimated the global burden of cancer attributable to high BMI in 2012. METHODS In this population-based study, we derived population attributable fractions (PAFs) using relative risks and BMI estimates in adults by age, sex, and country. Assuming a 10-year lag-period between high BMI and cancer occurrence, we calculated PAFs using BMI estimates from 2002 and used GLOBOCAN2012 data to estimate numbers of new cancer cases attributable to high BMI. We also calculated the proportion of cancers that were potentially avoidable had populations maintained their mean BMIs recorded in 1982. We did secondary analyses to test the model and to estimate the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use and smoking. FINDINGS Worldwide, we estimate that 481,000 or 3.6% of all new cancer cases in adults (aged 30 years and older after the 10-year lag period) in 2012 were attributable to high BMI. PAFs were greater in women than in men (5.4% vs 1.9%). The burden of attributable cases was higher in countries with very high and high human development indices (HDIs; PAF 5.3% and 4.8%, respectively) than in those with moderate (1.6%) and low HDIs (1.0%). Corpus uteri, postmenopausal breast, and colon cancers accounted for 63.6% of cancers attributable to high BMI. A quarter (about 118,000) of the cancer cases related to high BMI in 2012 could be attributed to the increase in BMI since 1982. INTERPRETATION These findings emphasise the need for a global effort to abate the increasing numbers of people with high BMI. Assuming that the association between high BMI and cancer is causal, the continuation of current patterns of population weight gain will lead to continuing increases in the future burden of cancer. FUNDING World Cancer Research Fund International, European Commission (Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship), Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and US National Institutes of Health.

Non‐communicable diseases in low‐ and middle‐income countries: context, determinants and health policy

The rise of non‐communicable diseases and their impact in low‐ and middle‐income countries has gained increased attention in recent years. However, the explanation for this rise is mostly an extrapolation from the history of high‐income countries whose experience differed from the development processes affecting today’s low‐ and middle‐income countries. This review appraises these differences in context to gain a better understanding of the epidemic of non‐communicable diseases in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Theories of developmental and degenerative determinants of non‐communicable diseases are discussed to provide strong evidence for a causally informed approach to prevention. Health policies for non‐communicable diseases are considered in terms of interventions to reduce population risk and individual susceptibility and the research needs for low‐ and middle‐income countries are discussed. Finally, the need for health system reform to strengthen primary care is highlighted as a major policy to reduce the toll of this rising epidemic.

Achieving the Millennium Development Goals: Does Mental Health Play a Role?

Miranda and Patel argue that mental disorders are among the most important causes of disability and premature mortality in developing countries.

Indigenous and tribal peoples' health (The Lancet-Lowitja Institute Global Collaboration): a population study.

BACKGROUND International studies of the health of Indigenous and tribal peoples provide important public health insights. Reliable data are required for the development of policy and health services. Previous studies document poorer outcomes for Indigenous peoples compared with benchmark populations, but have been restricted in their coverage of countries or the range of health indicators. Our objective is to describe the health and social status of Indigenous and tribal peoples relative to benchmark populations from a sample of countries. METHODS Collaborators with expertise in Indigenous health data systems were identified for each country. Data were obtained for population, life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, low and high birthweight, maternal mortality, nutritional status, educational attainment, and economic status. Data sources consisted of governmental data, data from non-governmental organisations such as UNICEF, and other research. Absolute and relative differences were calculated. FINDINGS Our data (23 countries, 28 populations) provide evidence of poorer health and social outcomes for Indigenous peoples than for non-Indigenous populations. However, this is not uniformly the case, and the size of the rate difference varies. We document poorer outcomes for Indigenous populations for: life expectancy at birth for 16 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1 year in 15 populations; infant mortality rate for 18 of 19 populations with a rate difference greater than one per 1000 livebirths in 16 populations; maternal mortality in ten populations; low birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in three populations; high birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in one population; child malnutrition for ten of 16 populations with a difference greater than 10% in five populations; child obesity for eight of 12 populations with a difference greater than 5% in four populations; adult obesity for seven of 13 populations with a difference greater than 10% in four populations; educational attainment for 26 of 27 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 24 populations; and economic status for 15 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 14 populations. INTERPRETATION We systematically collated data across a broader sample of countries and indicators than done in previous studies. Taking into account the UN Sustainable Development Goals, we recommend that national governments develop targeted policy responses to Indigenous health, improving access to health services, and Indigenous data within national surveillance systems. FUNDING The Lowitja Institute.

Differences in cardiovascular risk factors in rural, urban and rural-to-urban migrants in Peru

Objectives To assess differences in cardiovascular risk profiles among rural-to-urban migrants and non-migrant groups. Methods Cross-sectional study in Ayacucho and Lima, Peru. Participants were: rural (n=201); rural-to-urban migrants (n=589); and urban (n=199). Cardiovascular risk factors were assessed according to migrant status (migrants vs non-migrants), age at first migration, length of residency in an urban area and lifetime exposure to an urban area. Results For most risk factors, the migrant group had intermediate levels of risk between those observed for the rural and urban groups. Prevalence for rural, migrant and urban groups was 3%, 20% and 33%, respectively, for obesity, and 0.8%, 3% and 6% for type-2 diabetes. This gradient of risk was not observed uniformly across all risk factors. Blood pressure did not show a clear gradient of difference between groups. The migrant group had similar systolic blood pressure but lower diastolic blood pressure than the rural group. The urban group had higher systolic blood pressure but similar diastolic blood pressure than rural group. Hypertension was more prevalent among the urban (29%) than both the rural and migrant groups (11% and 16%, respectively). For HbA1c, although the urban group had higher levels, the migrant and rural groups were similar to each other. No differences were observed in triglycerides between the three groups. Within migrants, those who migrated when aged older than 12 years had higher odds of diabetes, impaired fasting glucose and metabolic syndrome compared to people who migrated at younger ages. Adjustment for age, sex and socioeconomic indicators had little impact on the patterns observed. Conclusions The impact of rural-to-urban migration on cardiovascular risk profile is not uniform across different risk factors, and is further influenced by the age at which migration occurs. A gradient in levels was observed for some risk factors across study groups. This observation indicates that urbanisation is indeed detrimental to cardiovascular health.

Addressing geographical variation in the progression of non-communicable diseases in Peru: the CRONICAS cohort study protocol.

Background The rise in non-communicable diseases in developing countries has gained increased attention. Given that around 80% of deaths related to non-communicable diseases occur in low- and middle-income countries, there is a need for local knowledge to address such problems. Longitudinal studies can provide valuable information about disease burden of non-communicable diseases in Latin America to inform both public health and clinical settings. Methods The CRONICAS cohort is a longitudinal study performed in three Peruvian settings that differ by degree of urbanisation, level of outdoor and indoor pollution and altitude. The author sought to enrol an age- and sex-stratified random sample of 1000 participants at each site. Study procedures include questionnaires on socio-demographics and well-known risk factors for cardiopulmonary disease, blood draw, anthropometry and body composition, blood pressure and spirometry before and after bronchodilators. All participants will be visited at baseline, at 20 and 40 months. A random sample of 100 households at each site will be assessed for 24 h particulate matter concentration. Primary outcomes include prevalence of risk factors for cardiopulmonary diseases, changes in blood pressure and blood glucose over time and decline in lung function. Discussion There is an urgent need to characterise the prevalence and burden of non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries. Peru is a middle-income country currently undergoing a rapid epidemiological transition. This longitudinal study will provide valuable information on cardiopulmonary outcomes in three different settings and will provide a platform to address potential interventions that are locally relevant or applicable to other similar settings in Latin America.

Major Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Latin America: A Comparison with the United States. The Latin American Consortium of Studies in Obesity (LASO)

Background Limited knowledge on the prevalence and distribution of risk factors impairs the planning and implementation of cardiovascular prevention programs in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. Methods and Findings Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, abnormal lipoprotein levels, obesity, and smoking were estimated from individual-level patient data pooled from population-based surveys (1998–2007, n = 31,009) from eight LAC countries and from a national survey of the United States (US) population (1999–2004) Age and gender specific prevalence were estimated and age-gender adjusted comparisons between both populations were conducted. Prevalence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol in LAC were 5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.4, 7.9), 20.2% (95% CI: 12.5, 31), and 53.3% (95% CI: 47, 63.4), respectively. Compared to LAC region’s average, the prevalence of each risk factor tended to be lower in Peru and higher in Chile. LAC women had higher prevalence of obesity and low HDL-cholesterol than men. Obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia were more prevalent in the US population than in LAC population (31 vs. 16.1%, 16.8 vs. 8.9%, and 36.2 vs. 26.5%, respectively). However, the prevalence of low HDL-cholesterol was higher in LAC than in the US (53.3 vs. 33.7%). Conclusions Major cardiovascular risk factors are highly prevalent in LAC region, in particular low HDL-cholesterol. In addition, marked differences do exist in this prevalence profile between LAC and the US. The observed patterns of obesity-related risk factors and their current and future impact on the burden of cardiovascular diseases remain to be explained.

Noncommunicable Diseases and Injuries in Latin America and the Caribbean: Time for Action

The region is in a privileged position to quickly translate investment in health research into practice, argue Perel and colleagues.

Assessing computer skills in Tanzanian medical students: an elective experience.

BackgroundOne estimate suggests that by 2010 more than 30% of a physicians time will be spent using information technology tools. The aim of this study is to assess the information and communication technologies (ICT) skills of medical students in Tanzania. We also report a pilot intervention of peer mentoring training in ICT by medical students from the UK tutoring students in Tanzania.MethodsDesign: Cross sectional study and pilot intervention study. Participants: Fourth year medical students (n = 92) attending Muhimbili University College of Health Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Main outcome measures: Self-reported assessment of competence on ICT-related topics and ability to perform specific ICT tasks. Further information related to frequency of computer use (hours per week), years of computer use, reasons for use and access to computers. Skills at specific tasks were reassessed for 12 students following 4 to 6 hours of peer mentoring training.ResultsThe highest levels of competence in generic ICT areas were for email, Internet and file management. For other skills such as word processing most respondents reported low levels of competence. The abilities to perform specific ICT skills were low – less than 60% of the participants were able to perform the core specific skills assessed. A period of approximately 5 hours of peer mentoring training produced an approximate doubling of competence scores for these skills.ConclusionOur study has found a low level of ability to use ICT facilities among medical students in a leading university in sub-Saharan Africa. A pilot scheme utilising UK elective students to tutor basic skills showed potential. Attention is required to develop interventions that can improve ICT skills, as well as computer access, in order to bridge the digital divide.

Interethnic differences in the accuracy of anthropometric indicators of obesity in screening for high risk of coronary heart disease

Background:Cut points for defining obesity have been derived from mortality data among Whites from Europe and the United States and their accuracy to screen for high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in other ethnic groups has been questioned.Objective:To compare the accuracy and to define ethnic and gender-specific optimal cut points for body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) when they are used in screening for high risk of CHD in the Latin-American and the US populations.Methods:We estimated the accuracy and optimal cut points for BMI, WC and WHR to screen for CHD risk in Latin Americans (n=18 976), non-Hispanic Whites (Whites; n=8956), non-Hispanic Blacks (Blacks; n=5205) and Hispanics (n=5803). High risk of CHD was defined as a 10-year risk ⩾20% (Framingham equation). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and the misclassification-cost term were used to assess accuracy and to identify optimal cut points.Results:WHR had the highest AUC in all ethnic groups (from 0.75 to 0.82) and BMI had the lowest (from 0.50 to 0.59). Optimal cut point for BMI was similar across ethnic/gender groups (27 kg/m2). In women, cut points for WC (94 cm) and WHR (0.91) were consistent by ethnicity. In men, cut points for WC and WHR varied significantly with ethnicity: from 91 cm in Latin Americans to 102 cm in Whites, and from 0.94 in Latin Americans to 0.99 in Hispanics, respectively.Conclusion:WHR is the most accurate anthropometric indicator to screen for high risk of CHD, whereas BMI is almost uninformative. The same BMI cut point should be used in all men and women. Unique cut points for WC and WHR should be used in all women, but ethnic-specific cut points seem warranted among men.