J. Joseph Beaulieu

Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data

In this paper we provide evidence on the presence of seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data. The analysis is conducted using the approach developed by Hyllebcrg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). We first derive the mechanics and asyrnptotics of the HEGY procedure for monthly data and use Monte Carlo methods to compute the finite sample critical values of the associated test statistics. We then apply quarterly and monthly HEGY procedures to aggregate U.S. data. The data reject the presence of unit roots at most seasonal frequencies in a large fraction of the series considered.

Sectoral Productivity in the United States: Recent Developments and the Role of IT

Abstract This paper introduces new estimates of recent productivity developments in the United States, using an appropriate theoretical framework for aggregating industry multi-factor productivity (MFP) to sectors and the total economy. Our work sheds light on the sources of the continued strong performance of US productivity since 2000.We find that the major sectoral players in the late 1990s pickup were not contributors to the more recent surge in productivity. Rather, striking gains in MFP in the finance and business service sector, a resurgence in MFP growth in the industrial sector, and an end to drops elsewhere more than account for the aggregate acceleration in productivity in recent years. Further, some evidence is found for a link between IT intensity and the recent productivity acceleration.

What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles

This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.

THE EFFECTS OF GENERAL INFLATION AND IDIOSYNCRATIC COST SHOCKS ON WITHIN-COMMODITY PRICE DISPERSION: EVIDENCE FROM MICRODATA

This study investigates the dispersion of price levels within highly disaggregated markets by examining plant-level product records from the U.S. Census of Manufactures. The paper estimates the effects of inflation on price dispersion through cross-sectional variation in the drift rate of average input costs within a market, arguing that, in several models that relate inflation to price dispersion, the effects of cost increases on dispersion is similar to the effects of general inflation. We also disentangle the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks on price dispersion. In general, we find that the higher the drift rate of input costs of a given commodity, the larger the amount of price dispersion. The standard deviation of idiosyncratic shocks also is positively correlated with the degree of price dispersion.

The seasonal cycle in U.S. manufacturing

Abstract This paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. The most significant feature is a sharp slowdown in July. We argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents.