J. L. Ford

FDI, Regional Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth: Some Evidence from Southeast Asia

This empirical study investigates whether FDI caused spillover effects which led to the economic growth of the ASEAN-5 economies (1970–96), and, if that is so, whether the ASEAN Preferential Trade Agreement (APTA) had a significant effect in attracting FDI to the region. Its findings are that FDI has stimulated economic growth most effectively through human factors, and knowledge/technological learning-by-doing effects; and that the formation of the APTA had a lagged influence on FDI inflows to the advantage of the more-developed member countries, and disadvantage of the less-developed member countries.

The interaction between FDI, output and the spillover variables: co-integration and VAR analyses for APEC, 1965-1999

In this empirical study, it is considered whether FDI has directly induced long-run effects on output in a selection of East Asian countries or whether such an influence, if any, has been transmitted indirectly through spillover effects. The Johansen cointegration methodology and resultant VECs are employed, and the use of that methodology within a panel framework tested. Equal evidence of negative and positive direct significant long-run relationship between FDI and output in the countries is found in the sample. In addition, indirect spillovers effects are found, which are positive for some country variables and negative for others. There is also an indication that the statistically significant positive spillovers occur in the economically less developed countries.

The information content of monetary aggregates in the U.K

Abstract This paper presents some results evaluating the information content of several monetary aggregates, formed as simple sums or as Divisia quantity indices. The former tend to dominate the latter; there is considerable support for the new, broader, official monetary aggregate PSL2.

Testing of the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses

Abstract In this paper we examine the tests of the new classical rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses undertaken by Leiderman (1980) using a model of money growth and unemployment for the United States developed by Barro (1977) . Employing the data used in the studies by Barro and Leiderman we are able to construct an alternative model of money growth and unemployment against which the Barro-Leiderman model is rejected along with the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and structural neutrality.

Revenue risks, insurance, and the behavior of competitive firms

This paper explores some issues relating to a competitive firms choice of the levels of output and insurance cover when faced with certain types of “revenue risks”. The analysis generalizes and extends existing results. In particular, we examine the implication, for the level of output and of insurance cover, of different risk attitudes of the firm under variable and fixed premium schemes. The possibility of using the premium schedule in, say, an export credit-guarantee scheme, as an instrument for stimulating the firms output is noted.

The aggregation error in Divisia monetary aggregates: Some findings for the U.K. 1963–1980

Abstract In this paper we examine the potential aggregation error or information loss in the construction of Divisia Indices of monetary aggregates for the UK. All the Indices produce no information loss; but in detail our findings differ from those for the US.

On Measuring the value of Life

Abstract This paper demonstrates a discrepancy between the value of human life calculated on the basis of the willingness to pay of individuals and the value of human life calculated on the basis of the compensating wage differential approach.

Monetary aggregates, their information content and their aggregation error: Some preliminary findings for Austria, 1965–1980

SummaryIn this paper we use information theory to assess the indicator quality, in the Austrian economy, of various monetary aggregates. In addition to simple sum aggregates we utilise discrete Divisia quantity indices, which have reputable aggregation and statistical attributes. Without using a particular macro-economic model we estimate the expected information gains, with respect to various policy objectives like inflation, real growth and unemployment, derived from monitoring various monetary aggregates. Finally, we compare the empirical results derived for Austria with those provided in earlier studies, using UK and United States data.

Testing the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses: Some econometric results for Austria 1965(1)–1979(4)

ZusammenfassungZwei zentrale Hypothesen der modernen Makroökonomik werden für Österreich an Hand von Quartalsdaten (I. Quartal 1965 bis IV. Quartal 1989) empirisch getestet: die Hypothese rationaler Erwartungen und die Hypothese struktureller Neutralität.Die erstere besagt, daß die Wirtschaftssubjekte ihre Erwartungen hinsichtlich der künftigen Geldmenge in Kenntnis und auf der Basis der stochastischen Struktur der Geldpolitik bilden. Die letztere besagt, daß — wie immer die Erwartungsbildung sei — wertgleiche Veränderungen der erwarteten und der tatsächlichen Geldmenge keinerlei Einfluß auf die reale Seite der Volkswirtschaft (z. B. auf den Output oder die Beschäftigung) haben. Beide Hypothesen implizieren ganz bestimmte Restriktionen hinsichtlich der Parameter des zugrundeliegenden Modells.Es wird ein einfaches Modell entwickelt und FIML-Schätzwerte errechnet. In der Folge werden — der Hierarchie der implizierten Restriktionen entsprechend — die beiden erwähnten Hypothesen in einem geschachtelten Verfahren mit Likelihood-Ratio-Tests getestet (nested tests).Das Modell enthält die Angebotshypothese in autoregressiver Form und nicht — wie sonst üblich — in der angenäherten Form gleitender Durchschnitte.Die Hypothese rationaler Erwartungen muß verworfen werden. Der Test der Hypothese struktureller Neutralität hat danach auf Grund des geschachtelten Testverfahrens nur beschränkte Gültigkeit. Die Likelihood-Ratio-Werte deuten jedoch darauf hin, daß strukturelle Neutralität akzeptiert werden kann.Weiters wurde beobachtet, daß die endogen verzögerte Variable in der Outputgleichung nicht signifikant ist.

The elasticity of prices with respect to monetary components: some estimates for the UK 1948–1979

This paper reports estimates of the elasticity of various monetary components in the UK by assessing their ability to explain prices. Tests of the Monetarist proposition, that a unit change in a (weighted) monetary aggregate migh lead to a unit change in the price level in the long run, and of the appropriateness of the current practice of constructing monetary aggregates by the simple summation of monetary components, are also performed.