J.M. Baveco

Potential application of population models in the European ecological risk assessment of chemicals. II. Review of models and their potential to address environmental protection aims.

Whereas current chemical risk assessment (RA) schemes within the European Union (EU) focus mainly on toxicity and bioaccumulation of chemicals in individual organisms, most protection goals aim at preserving populations of nontarget organisms rather than individuals. Ecological models are tools rarely recommended in official technical documents on RA of chemicals, but are widely used by researchers to assess risks to populations, communities and ecosystems. Their great advantage is the relatively straightforward integration of the sensitivity of species to chemicals, the mode of action and fate in the environment of toxicants, life-history traits of the species of concern, and landscape features. To promote the usage of ecological models in regulatory risk assessment, this study tries to establish whether existing, published ecological modeling studies have addressed or have the potential to address the protection aims and requirements of the chemical directives of the EU. We reviewed 148 publications, and evaluated and analyzed them in a database according to defined criteria. Published models were also classified in terms of 5 areas where their application would be most useful for chemical RA. All potential application areas are well represented in the published literature. Most models were developed to estimate population-level responses on the basis of individual effects, followed by recovery process assessment, both in individuals and at the level of metapopulations. We provide case studies for each of the proposed areas of ecological model application. The lack of clarity about protection goals in legislative documents made it impossible to establish a direct link between modeling studies and protection goals. Because most of the models reviewed here were not developed for regulatory risk assessment, there is great potential and a variety of ecological models in the published literature.

Effects of C60 nanoparticle exposure on earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus) and implications for population dynamics

Effects of C60 nanoparticles (nominal concentrations 0, 15.4 and 154 mg/kg soil) on mortality, growth and reproduction of Lumbricus rubellus earthworms were assessed. C60 exposure had a significant effect on cocoon production, juvenile growth rate and mortality. These endpoints were used to model effects on the population level. This demonstrated reduced population growth rate with increasing C60 concentrations. Furthermore, a shift in stage structure was shown for C60 exposed populations, i.e. a larger proportion of juveniles. This result implies that the lower juvenile growth rate due to exposure to C60 resulted in a larger proportion of juveniles, despite increased mortality among juveniles. Overall, this study indicates that C60 exposure may seriously affect earthworm populations. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that juveniles were more sensitive to C60 exposure than adults.

An individual‐based approach to model spatial population dynamics of invertebrates in aquatic ecosystems after pesticide contamination

In the present study we present a population model (Metapopulation model for Assessing Spatial and Temporal Effects of Pesticides [MASTEP]) describing the effects on and recovery of the waterlouse Asellus aquaticus after exposure to a fast-acting, nonpersistent insecticide as a result of spray drift in pond, ditch, and stream scenarios. The model used the spatial and temporal distribution of the exposure in different treatment conditions as an input parameter. A dose-response relation derived from a hypothetical mesocosm study was used to link the exposure with the effects. The modeled landscape was represented as a lattice of 1- by 1-m cells. The model included processes of mortality of A. aquaticus, life history, random walk between cells, density dependence of population regulation, and, in the case of the stream scenario, medium-distance drift of A. aquaticus due to flow. All parameter estimates were based on expert judgment and the results of a thorough review of published information on the ecology of A. aquaticus. In the treated part of the water body, the ditch scenario proved to be the worst-case situation, due to the absence of drift of A. aquaticus. Effects in the pond scenario were smaller because the pond was exposed from one side, allowing migration from the other, less contaminated side. The results of the stream scenario showed the importance of including drift for the population recovery in the 100-m stretch of the stream that was treated. It should be noted, however, that the inclusion of drift had a negligible impact on numbers in the stream as a whole (600 m).

Effects of silver nanoparticles (NM-300K) on Lumbricus rubellus earthworms and particle characterization in relevant test matrices including soil.

The impact of silver nanoparticles (AgNP; at 0 mg Ag/kg, 1.5 mg Ag/kg, 15.4 mg Ag/kg, and 154 mg Ag/kg soil) and silver nitrate (AgNO3 ; 15.4 mg Ag/kg soil) on earthworms, Lumbricus rubellus, was assessed. A 4-wk exposure to the highest AgNP treatment reduced growth and reproduction compared with the control. Silver nitrate (AgNO3 ) exposure also impaired reproduction, but not as much as the highest AgNP treatment. Long-term exposure to the highest AgNP treatment caused complete juvenile mortality. All AgNP treatments induced tissue pathology. Population modeling demonstrated reduced population growth rates for the AgNP and AgNO3 treatments, and no population growth at the highest AgNP treatment because of juvenile mortality. Analysis of AgNP treated soil samples revealed that single AgNP and AgNP clusters were present in the soil, and that the total Ag in soil porewater remained high throughout the long-term experiment. In addition, immune cells (coelomocytes) of earthworms showed sensitivity to both AgNP and AgNO3 in vitro. Overall, the present study indicates that AgNP exposure may affect earthworm populations and that the exposure may be prolonged because of the release of a dissolved Ag fraction to soil porewater.

Sacrificing patches for linear habitat elements enhances metapopulation performance of woodland birds in fragmented landscapes

It is generally assumed that large patches of natural habitat are better for the survival of species than the same amount of habitat in smaller fragments or linear elements like hedges and tree rows. We use a spatially explicit individual-based model of a woodland bird to explore this hypothesis. We specifically ask whether mixtures of large, small and linear habitat elements are better for population performance than landscapes that consist of only large elements. With equal carrying capacity, metapopulations perform equally or better in heterogeneous landscape types that are a mix of linear, large and small habitat elements. We call this increased metapopulation performance of large and small elements “synergy”. These mixed conditions are superior because the small linear elements facilitate dispersal while patches secure the population in the long run because they have a lower extinction risk. The linear elements are able to catch and guide dispersing animals which results in higher connectivity between patches leading to higher metapopulation survival. Our results suggest that landscape designers should not always seek to conserve and create larger units but might better strive for more variable landscapes with mixtures of patch sizes and shapes. This is especially important when smaller units play a key role in connecting patches and dispersal through the matrix is poor.

Comparing population recovery after insecticide exposure for four aquatic invertebrate species using models of different complexity

Population models, in particular individual-based models (IBMs), are becoming increasingly important in chemical risk assessment. They can be used to assess recovery of spatially structured populations after chemical exposure that varies in time and space. The authors used an IBM coupled to a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model, the threshold damage model (TDM), to assess recovery times for 4 aquatic organisms, after insecticide application, in a nonseasonal environment and in 3 spatial settings (pond, stream, and ditch). The species had different life histories (e.g., voltinism, reproductive capacity, mobility). Exposure was derived from a pesticide fate model, following standard European Union scenarios. The results of the IBM-TDM were compared with results from simpler models: one in which exposure was linked to effects by means of concentration-effect relationships (IBM-CE) and one in which the IBM was replaced by a nonspatial, logistic growth model (logistic). For the first, exposure was based on peak concentrations only; for the second, exposure was spatially averaged as well. By using comparisons between models of different complexity and species with different life histories, the authors obtained an understanding of the role spatial processes play in recovery and the conditions under which the full time-varying exposure needs to be considered. The logistic model, which is amenable to an analytic approach, provided additional insights into the sensitivity of recovery times to density dependence and spatial dimensions.

Combining modelling tools to evaluate a goose management scheme

Many goose species feed on agricultural land, and with growing goose numbers, conflicts with agriculture are increasing. One possible solution is to designate refuge areas where farmers are paid to leave geese undisturbed. Here, we present a generic modelling tool that can be used to designate the best locations for refuges and to gauge the area needed to accommodate the geese. With a species distribution model, locations are ranked according to goose suitability. The size of the area to be designated as refuge can be chosen by including more or less suitable locations. A resource depletion model is then used to estimate whether enough resources are available within the designated refuge to accommodate all geese, taking into account the dynamics of food resources, including depletion by geese. We illustrate this with the management scheme for pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus implemented in Norway. Here, all geese can be accommodated, but damage levels appear to depend on weather, land use and refuge size.

Prospective Environmental Risk Assessment for Sediment-Bound Organic Chemicals: A Proposal for Tiered Effect Assessment

A broadly accepted framework for prospective environmental risk assessment (ERA) of sediment-bound organic chemicals is currently lacking. Such a framework requires clear protection goals, evidence-based concepts that link exposure to effects and a transparent tiered-effect assessment. In this paper, we provide a tiered prospective sediment ERA procedure for organic chemicals in sediment, with a focus on the applicable European regulations and the underlying data requirements. Using the ecosystem services concept, we derived specific protection goals for ecosystem service providing units: microorganisms, benthic algae, sediment-rooted macrophytes, benthic invertebrates and benthic vertebrates. Triggers for sediment toxicity testing are discussed.We recommend a tiered approach (Tier 0 through Tier 3). Tier-0 is a cost-effective screening based on chronic water-exposure toxicity data for pelagic species and equilibrium partitioning. Tier-1 is based on spiked sediment laboratory toxicity tests with standard benthic test species and standardised test methods. If comparable chronic toxicity data for both standard and additional benthic test species are available, the Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) approach is a more viable Tier-2 option than the geometric mean approach. This paper includes criteria for accepting results of sediment-spiked single species toxicity tests in prospective ERA, and for the application of the SSD approach. We propose micro/mesocosm experiments with spiked sediment, to study colonisation success by benthic organisms, as a Tier-3 option. Ecological effect models can be used to supplement the experimental tiers. A strategy for unifying information from various tiers by experimental work and exposure-and effect modelling is provided.

An energetics-based honeybee nectar-foraging model used to assess the potential for landscape-level pesticide exposure dilution

Estimating the exposure of honeybees to pesticides on a landscape scale requires models of their spatial foraging behaviour. For this purpose, we developed a mechanistic, energetics-based model for a single day of nectar foraging in complex landscape mosaics. Net energetic efficiency determined resource patch choice. In one version of the model a single optimal patch was selected each hour. In another version, recruitment of foragers was simulated and several patches could be exploited simultaneously. Resource availability changed during the day due to depletion and/or intrinsic properties of the resource (anthesis). The model accounted for the impact of patch distance and size, resource depletion and replenishment, competition with other nectar foragers, and seasonal and diurnal patterns in availability of nectar-providing crops and wild flowers. From the model we derived simple rules for resource patch selection, e.g., for landscapes with mass-flowering crops only, net energetic efficiency would be proportional to the ratio of the energetic content of the nectar divided by distance to the hive. We also determined maximum distances at which resources like oilseed rape and clover were still energetically attractive. We used the model to assess the potential for pesticide exposure dilution in landscapes of different composition and complexity. Dilution means a lower concentration in nectar arriving at the hive compared to the concentration in nectar at a treated field and can result from foraging effort being diverted away from treated fields. Applying the model for all possible hive locations over a large area, distributions of dilution factors were obtained that were characterised by their 90-percentile value. For an area for which detailed spatial data on crops and off-field semi-natural habitats were available, we tested three landscape management scenarios that were expected to lead to exposure dilution: providing alternative resources than the target crop (oilseed rape) in the form of (i) other untreated crop fields, (ii) flower strips of different widths at field edges (off-crop in-field resources), and (iii) resources on off-field (semi-natural) habitats. For both model versions, significant dilution occurred only when alternative resource patches were equal or more attractive than oilseed rape, nearby and numerous and only in case of flower strips and off-field habitats. On an area-base, flower strips were more than one order of magnitude more effective than off-field habitats, the main reason being that flower strips had an optimal location. The two model versions differed in the predicted number of resource patches exploited over the day, but mainly in landscapes with numerous small resource patches. In landscapes consisting of few large resource patches (crop fields) both versions predicted the use of a small number of patches.

RETRACTED ARTICLE : The effectiveness of green infrastructure as a climate adaptation strategy for intensively-used landscapes: an example of the great crested newt

This article has been retracted at the request of the authors. After publication the authors detected an error in the dispersal module that estimates colonisation probabilities for dispersing individuals, partially inflating long distance dispersal probabilities. As the dispersal model is at the core of the work presented, this error may have consequences for the results presented and conclusions drawn. While assessing the exact magnitude of the impact of the error is undergoing, the authors believe that the results presented here are too preliminary, for which they requested to retract this publication.