J. Michael Greig

The End of Geography

Globalization and the expansion of communications carry important consequences for culture in the international system. The effect of the expansion of communications on cultural change is examined using simulations based on Robert Axelrods adaptive culture model. Findings show that the expansion of communications increases the rate at which cultures change and the level of cultural homogeneity in the system, but limited expansion of communications promotes the development of cultural diasporas. The expansion of communications also reduces the extent to which the most common cultural attributes tend to predominate after interaction.

Moments of Opportunity

Some points in time are more favorable for mediation success than others and result from the concatenation of contextual factors that encourage movement toward more cooperative behavior by disputants. Ripeness for mediation between enduring rivals is examined by focusing on mediation success in the short and extended term. Results suggest that the factors conducive to the achievement of short-term mediation success differ significantly from those that promote extended-term improvement in the rivalry relationship. These results help to reconcile some of the diversity of expectations in the ripeness literature by demonstrating that short-term and extended-term mediation success follow distinct dynamics.

Softening Up: Making Conflicts More Amenable to Diplomacy

In this paper, we explore the process by which initially reluctant protagonists come to accept diplomacy to resolve their conflicts; we refer to this as “softening up.” Although some studies exploring mediation and negotiation initiation have identified a number of important factors, they have produced largely modest results. These modest findings may reflect the fact that the conditions that promote diplomacy do so only after disputants have been softened up, thereby producing results that are statistically significant, but not substantively strong, unless one controls for a softening effect. In this paper, we develop and test a model of softening up. We do so by studying all pairs of rival states in the period 1946–1995.

Beacons of Hope? The Impact of Imposed Democracy on Regional Peace, Democracy, and Prosperity

In 2003, American policymakers linked the democratization of Iraq with greater peace, democracy, and prosperity in the Middle East. We elaborate this regional-level policy argument theoretically and test it empirically on a global sample of states for the twentieth century. We differentiate the impact of fully and weakly democratic externally imposed polities (“bright” versus “dim” beacons, respectively) on regional interstate war, democratization, and economic growth. We conclude that (1) bright beacons reduce, while dim beacons increase war; (2) bright beacons do not stimulate democratization, while dim beacons undermine democratization; and (3) bright beacons stimulate prosperity, while dim beacons undermine prosperity.

Perfect Storms? Political Instability in Imposed Polities and the Futures of Iraq and Afghanistan

What explains variation in domestic political instability in polities imposed by foreign powers? We formulate a framework grounded in four sources of political instability in imposed polities: (1) the initial conditions under which a polity is imposed, (2) policy choices made by the imposer, (3) the prevailing domestic conditions within states hosting the imposed polity, and (4) the international environment within which the host state is embedded. Employing a sample of ninety-four imposed polities during the period 1816—1994 to test expectations from the framework, we find, in part, that ethnoreligious heterogeneity coupled with democratic institutions, preimposition military defeat, colonial experience, dissimilarity of neighboring political institutions, hostility from neighboring states, and the presence of the imposing state each stimulate political instability. The analysis suggests a bleak prognosis for domestic peace in postinvasion Afghanistan and Iraq as the causal factors that militate against domestic stability are manifold and likely reinforcing.

Taking matters into their own hands: An analysis of the determinants of state-conducted peacekeeping in civil wars

Why and when do states take the burden upon themselves to send peacekeepers into a civil war, rather than relying on intergovernmental organizations to do so? While there are a few empirical studies on the conditions under which the UN sends peacekeeping missions, no such analyses of state-conducted peacekeeping exist. In this study, a theoretical framework on state-conducted peacekeeping in civil wars is developed and empirically tested. Not surprisingly, when acting outside international organizations, states are able to take their own interests directly into account and select those civil wars to which they send peacekeepers accordingly. States’ interests play a much greater role here than, for example, the interests of the major powers do for UN peacekeeping. When states send peacekeepers they are more likely to choose former colonies, military allies, trade partners, or countries with which they have ethnic ties. Yet, this does not mean that state-conducted peacekeeping occurs only where states see their own interests. Contrary to conventional wisdom, states also provide peacekeeping to ‘tough’ cases, the most challenging civil wars. These are long, ethnic wars. This tendency for states to provide peacekeeping holds when civil wars produce dire effects on civilians. States are more likely to send peacekeepers into civil wars that kill or displace many people. Finally, states react to opportunities: the more previous mediation attempts, the higher the chances for state-conducted peacekeeping.

Turning down the heat: Influences on conflict management in enduring rivalries

Enduring rivalries represent the most difficult challenges for policy makers seeking to promote international peace and security. Once in place, enduring rivalries account for a disproportionate number of crises, militarized disputes, as well as wars, and include conflicts that are more likely to escalate than those falling in other conflict contexts. Unfortunately, we know very little about conflict management in enduring rivalries from either a theoretical or policy perspective. This study seeks to account for why some rivalries are successfully managed while others persist at high and unabated levels of conflict In addressing these concerns, we explore 35 enduring rivalries over the period 1945–1992. We find that although enduring rivalries are quite resistant to influences that produce changes in their dynamics, both endogenous and contextual influences can exercise a significant impact upon the prospects for conflict management between enduring rivals.

Nipping Them in the Bud

Civil conflicts constitute one of the most significant threats to human security. Understanding when belligerents are willing to undertake conflict management efforts is an important first step in better understanding how civil conflicts can be dealt with by the international community. In this article, I examine the occurrence of mediation in low-intensity conflicts. Drawing on insights from the war termination literature, I develop a theoretical argument that links mediation in low-intensity conflicts to the evolution of fighting. I argue that, while the characteristics of a conflict and its belligerents influence when mediation happens, how events unfold on the battlefield also influences the occurrence of mediation. I test this argument by looking at low-intensity conflicts in Africa from 1997 to 2004 using data on mediation in low-intensity conflicts and battle-level civil conflict events. The analysis highlights the important effect of battlefield outcomes and locations upon the occurrence of mediation in low-intensity conflicts.

Staying the Course: Assessing the Durability of Peacekeeping Operations*

The use of peacekeeping to manage conflicts in the international system has grown since the end of the Cold War. While much attention has been devoted to what makes peacekeeping successful, the outcome of peacekeeping is ultimately tied to the willingness of the intervening actor(s) to “stay the course” and continue the mission until its objectives are complete. In this article we focus upon the empirical puzzle of peacekeeping missions’ sustainability. After states and international organizations overcome the collective action problem of forming a mission and deploying it, it is puzzling that so many missions drop out before completion. We adopt a competing risks framework in our analysis to identify the forces that determine whether peacekeepers stay until the end of a conflict or withdraw early. Our explanation argues that peacekeepers are more likely to stay the course as the capacity of the mission increases, the costs and risks of peacekeeping diminish, and traction towards peace is observed.

To Prosecute or Not to Prosecute: Civil War Mediation and International Criminal Justice

The International Criminal Court (icc) came into force in July 2002 with the potential to drastically alter both the war fighting and peacemaking behavior of states. The icc is designed to try and subsequently punish those found guilty of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. Supporters of the icc have argued that its establishment will erode the norm of impunity that state and military leaders have historically enjoyed. Yet, another logic suggests that the initiation of an icc investigation or the issuance of an arrest warrant for individuals embroiled in an ongoing dispute may make matters worse. Such individuals may see little reason to stop fighting and reach a settlement if conflict resolution results in their detention in The Hague. Indeed, suspected war criminals and their patrons may wish to escalate their violence in order to avoid showing any sign of weakness or possibility of capitulation lest their enemies press the fight or their rivals seek to undermine their authority. In this article, we explore the potential impact of the icc on the likelihood of peace by examining the impact of actions by the icc – the initiation of investigations into conflict situations and the issuance of arrest warrants for those suspected of committing violations of international law – on the likelihood of mediation. Our findings suggest that while icc arrest warrants can encourage mediation, the initiation of investigations by the icc can actually undermine the occurrence of mediation.