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The Lancet | 2015

Aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in early breast cancer: patient-level meta-analysis of the randomised trials

Mitch Dowsett; John F Forbes; R Bradley; J. N. Ingle; T Aihara; J Bliss; Francesco Boccardo; Alan S. Coates; R. C. Coombes; Jack Cuzick; Peter Dubsky; M.F.X. Gnant; Manfred Kaufmann; Lucy Kilburn; F Perrone; D. Rea; B. Thürlimann; C.J.H. van de Velde; Hongchao Pan; Richard Peto; C Davies; Richard Gray

BACKGROUND The optimal ways of using aromatase inhibitors or tamoxifen as endocrine treatment for early breast cancer remains uncertain. METHODS We undertook meta-analyses of individual data on 31,920 postmenopausal women with oestrogen-receptor-positive early breast cancer in the randomised trials of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen; of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5; and of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen. Primary outcomes were any recurrence of breast cancer, breast cancer mortality, death without recurrence, and all-cause mortality. Intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded aromatase inhibitor versus tamoxifen first-event rate ratios (RRs). FINDINGS In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·64, 95% CI 0·52-0·78) and 2-4 (RR 0·80, 0·68-0·93), and non-significantly thereafter. 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (12·1% vs 14·2%; RR 0·85, 0·75-0·96; 2p=0·009). In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·74, 0·62-0·89) but not while both groups received aromatase inhibitors during years 2-4, or thereafter; overall in these trials, there were fewer recurrences with 5 years of aromatase inhibitors than with tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitors (RR 0·90, 0·81-0·99; 2p=0·045), though the breast cancer mortality reduction was not significant (RR 0·89, 0·78-1·03; 2p=0·11). In the comparison of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 2-4 (RR 0·56, 0·46-0·67) but not subsequently, and 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with switching to aromatase inhibitors than with remaining on tamoxifen (8·7% vs 10·1%; 2p=0·015). Aggregating all three types of comparison, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors during periods when treatments differed (RR 0·70, 0·64-0·77), but not significantly thereafter (RR 0·93, 0·86-1·01; 2p=0·08). Breast cancer mortality was reduced both while treatments differed (RR 0·79, 0·67-0·92), and subsequently (RR 0·89, 0·81-0·99), and for all periods combined (RR 0·86, 0·80-0·94; 2p=0·0005). All-cause mortality was also reduced (RR 0·88, 0·82-0·94; 2p=0·0003). RRs differed little by age, body-mass index, stage, grade, progesterone receptor status, or HER2 status. There were fewer endometrial cancers with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (10-year incidence 0·4% vs 1·2%; RR 0·33, 0·21-0·51) but more bone fractures (5-year risk 8·2% vs 5·5%; RR 1·42, 1·28-1·57); non-breast-cancer mortality was similar. INTERPRETATION Aromatase inhibitors reduce recurrence rates by about 30% (proportionately) compared with tamoxifen while treatments differ, but not thereafter. 5 years of an aromatase inhibitor reduces 10-year breast cancer mortality rates by about 15% compared with 5 years of tamoxifen, hence by about 40% (proportionately) compared with no endocrine treatment. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.


The Lancet | 2015

Adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in early breast cancer: meta-analyses of individual patient data from randomised trials

Jonas Bergh; K. I. Pritchard; Kathy S. Albain; Stewart J. Anderson; R. Arriagada; William E. Barlow; W. Bergsten-Nordström; Judith M. Bliss; Francesco Boccardo; R Bradley; Marc Buyse; David Cameron; Mike Clarke; M. Coates; Robert E. Coleman; Candace R. Correa; Joseph P. Costantino; Jack Cuzick; Nancy E. Davidson; C Davies; A. Di Leo; Mitch Dowsett; Marianne Ewertz; John Forbes; Richard D. Gelber; R. Geyer; R. Gianni; Michael Gnant; A. Goldhirsch; Richard Gray

BACKGROUND Bisphosphonates have profound effects on bone physiology, and could modify the process of metastasis. We undertook collaborative meta-analyses to clarify the risks and benefits of adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in breast cancer. METHODS We sought individual patient data from all unconfounded trials in early breast cancer that randomised between bisphosphonate and control. Primary outcomes were recurrence, distant recurrence, and breast cancer mortality. Primary subgroup investigations were site of first distant recurrence (bone or other), menopausal status (postmenopausal [combining natural and artificial] or not), and bisphosphonate class (aminobisphosphonate [eg, zoledronic acid, ibandronate, pamidronate] or other [ie, clodronate]). Intention-to-treat log-rank methods yielded bisphosphonate versus control first-event rate ratios (RRs). FINDINGS We received data on 18,766 women (18,206 [97%] in trials of 2-5 years of bisphosphonate) with median follow-up 5·6 woman-years, 3453 first recurrences, and 2106 subsequent deaths. Overall, the reductions in recurrence (RR 0·94, 95% CI 0·87-1·01; 2p=0·08), distant recurrence (0·92, 0·85-0·99; 2p=0·03), and breast cancer mortality (0·91, 0·83-0·99; 2p=0·04) were of only borderline significance, but the reduction in bone recurrence was more definite (0·83, 0·73-0·94; 2p=0·004). Among premenopausal women, treatment had no apparent effect on any outcome, but among 11 767 postmenopausal women it produced highly significant reductions in recurrence (RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·78-0·94; 2p=0·002), distant recurrence (0·82, 0·74-0·92; 2p=0·0003), bone recurrence (0·72, 0·60-0·86; 2p=0·0002), and breast cancer mortality (0·82, 0·73-0·93; 2p=0·002). Even for bone recurrence, however, the heterogeneity of benefit was barely significant by menopausal status (2p=0·06 for trend with menopausal status) or age (2p=0·03), and it was non-significant by bisphosphonate class, treatment schedule, oestrogen receptor status, nodes, tumour grade, or concomitant chemotherapy. No differences were seen in non-breast cancer mortality. Bone fractures were reduced (RR 0·85, 95% CI 0·75-0·97; 2p=0·02). INTERPRETATION Adjuvant bisphosphonates reduce the rate of breast cancer recurrence in the bone and improve breast cancer survival, but there is definite benefit only in women who were postmenopausal when treatment began. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.


Annals of Oncology | 1999

Metaplastic breast cancer: Prognosis and response to systemic therapy

D. Rayson; A. A. Adjei; Vera J. Suman; Lester E. Wold; J. N. Ingle

BACKGROUND Metaplastic breast cancer is a rare disease with little information available to guide therapy. The goals of this study were to describe the patient characteristics, systemic therapies and clinical outcomes of all patients with primary metaplastic breast cancer treated at Mayo Clinic between 1976 and 1997. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients were identified through the medical index of Mayo Clinic. Clinical information was abstracted from the medical record of each patient. A literature search using MEDLINE and CANCERLIT for the years 1966-1997 was performed to identify all previously reported case series in the English language containing 10 or more patients. RESULTS Twenty-seven patients were identified with a median age at diagnosis of 59 years (range 39-90 years). The median tumor size was 3.4 cm (range 0.5-7.0 cm). One patient had metastatic disease at presentation. Twenty-three patients had information available on nodal status, estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status. Twenty patients (87%) were node-negative and three patients (13%) were both ER and PR positive. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed for those who presented with local-regional disease. The three-year DFS was 40% (95% CI: 23%-73%) and the three-year OS was 71% (95% CI: 51%-97%). In univariate analysis, those patients 60 years of age or older at diagnosis were found to have an increased DFS (P = 0.011). Among those with prior estrogen use, both DFS (P = 0.022) and OS (P = 0.003) were decreased. Thirteen patients (50%) developed metastases with a median DFS time of 2.4 years. Ten different chemotherapy regimens were utilized for metastatic disease and one partial response was observed. There were no responses to tamoxifen in four patients with metastatic disease. Median survival after the development of metastases was eight months. CONCLUSIONS Despite presenting more commonly as node-negative disease, DFS and OS in metaplastic breast cancer is decreased compared to typical adenocarcinomas. Systemic therapy also appears to be less effective. Patients with metaplastic breast cancer, particularly those with metastatic disease could be appropriate candidates for innovative therapeutic regimens.


Cancer Research | 2009

Results of Chemotherapy Alone, with Sequential or Concurrent Addition of 52 Weeks of Trastuzumab in the NCCTG N9831 HER2-Positive Adjuvant Breast Cancer Trial.

E. Perez; Vera J. Suman; Nancy E. Davidson; Julie R. Gralow; Peter A. Kaufman; J. N. Ingle; Shaker R. Dakhil; JoAnne Zujewski; Thomas M. Pisansky; Robert B. Jenkins

Background: N9831 is the only randomized phase III trial comparing safety and efficacy of the addition of trastuzumab (H) to doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide then paclitaxel (Arm A: AC→T) either following (Arm B: AC→T→H) or starting concurrently with paclitaxel (Arm C: AC→T+H→H) for women with resected Stage I-III invasive HER2+ breast cancer. The 3 yr cumulative incidence of NYHA class III or IV congestive heart failure or sudden cardiac death was previously reported: 3.3% in Arm C, 2.8% in Arm B (Perez EA, et al. JCO 2008). The comparison of AC→T to AC→T+H→H was reported in a joint analysis of N9831 and NSABP B-31 in 2005 and updated in 2007, demonstrating a 52% reduction in risk of a disease event (Romond E et al., NEJM 2005; Perez EA, et al. ASCO 2007).Materials and Methods: Primary endpoint is disease-free survival (DFS). At the second planned interim analysis of Arm A vs. Arm B, the O’Brien-Fleming boundary (OFB) was crossed. NCCTG Independent Data Safety Monitoring Committee approved the release of these data as well as the data pertaining to Arm B vs. Arm C due to slow pace of events [expected 647 events in 4 yr follow-up period (f/u) vs. actual 334 events in 4.5 yr f/u]. Shortly thereafter, there were sufficient events to perform the first planned interim analysis of B vs. C. We present the results of each of these pairwise comparisons taking into account the potential for crossover to Arm C after the release of the joint analysis findings in 2005.Results: From 5/2000 to 4/2005, 2448 eligible women were enrolled for the Arm A (n=1087) vs. Arm B (n=1097) comparison. Median f/u is 5.5 yrs. with 386 events. The addition of trastuzumab sequentially to AC→T significantly improved DFS, univariately [HR(Arm B/Arm A)=0.70, 95% CI: 57-86%, logrank p=0.0005] and after adjusting for age, tumor size, number of positive nodes, and ER [PPH: HR adj =0.67 (95% CI: 0.55-0.82)]. 5 yr DFS was increased from 72% with AC→T to 80% with AC→T →H.From 5/2000 to 4/2005, 1903 eligible women were enrolled for the Arm B (n=954) vs. Arm C (n=949) comparison. Median f/u is 5.3 yrs. with 312 events. The log-rank p-value testing whether DFS differs with respect to starting time of trastuzumab was 0.019. [Not crossing pre-specified OFB for statistical significance]. After adjusting for tumor size, number of positive nodes, and ER, HR adj (Arm C/Arm B)=0.75 (95% CI: 0.60-0.94)]. 5 yr DFS was increased from 80% with AC→T →H to 84% for AC→T+H →H.Conclusions: DFS is significantly improved with the addition of 52 weeks of H (sequentially or concurrently) to AC→ T. There is a statistically significant 33% reduction in the risk of an event with the sequential addition of H following AC→T. There is a strong trend for a 25% reduction in the risk of an event with starting H concurrently with T relative to sequentially after T. Therefore, based on a positive risk/benefit ratio, we recommend that trastuzumab be incorporated in a concurrent fashion with T chemotherapy.Acknowledgements: NIH CA25224, Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Genentech. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(24 Suppl):Abstract nr 80. NOTE: This abstract was accepted for presentation at the Symposium after the Abstract Book went to press.


Annals of Oncology | 2013

Impact of premenopausal status at breast cancer diagnosis in women entered on the placebo-controlled NCIC CTG MA17 trial of extended adjuvant letrozole

Paul E. Goss; J. N. Ingle; Silvana Martino; Nicholas J. Robert; Hyman B. Muss; Robert B. Livingston; Nancy E. Davidson; Edith A. Perez; Yanin Chavarri-Guerra; David Cameron; Kathleen I. Pritchard; Timothy J. Whelan; Lois E. Shepherd; D. Tu

BACKGROUND MA17 showed improved outcomes in postmenopausal women given extended letrozole (LET) after completing 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. PATIENTS AND METHODS Exploratory subgroup analyses of disease-free survival (DFS), distant DFS (DDFS), overall survival (OS), toxic effects and quality of life (QOL) in MA17 were performed based on menopausal status at breast cancer diagnosis. RESULTS At diagnosis, 877 women were premenopausal and 4289 were postmenopausal. Extended LET was significantly better than placebo (PLAC) in DFS for premenopausal [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.13-0.55; P = 0.0003] and postmenopausal women (HR = 0.67; 95% CI 0.51-0.89; P = 0.006), with greater DFS benefit in those premenopausal (interaction P = 0.03). In adjusted post-unblinding analysis, those who switched from PLAC to LET improved DDFS in premenopausal (HR = 0.15; 95% CI 0.03-0.79; P = 0.02) and postmenopausal women (HR = 0.45; 95% CI 0.22-0.94; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS Extended LET after 5 years of tamoxifen was effective in pre- and postmenopausal women at diagnosis, and significantly better in those premenopausal. Women premenopausal at diagnosis should be considered for extended adjuvant therapy with LET if menopausal after completing tamoxifen.BACKGROUND MA17 showed improved outcomes in postmenopausal women given extended letrozole (LET) after completing 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. PATIENTS AND METHODS Exploratory subgroup analyses of disease-free survival (DFS), distant DFS (DDFS), overall survival (OS), toxic effects and quality of life (QOL) in MA17 were performed based on menopausal status at breast cancer diagnosis. RESULTS At diagnosis, 877 women were premenopausal and 4289 were postmenopausal. Extended LET was significantly better than placebo (PLAC) in DFS for premenopausal [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.13-0.55; P = 0.0003] and postmenopausal women (HR = 0.67; 95% CI 0.51-0.89; P = 0.006), with greater DFS benefit in those premenopausal (interaction P = 0.03). In adjusted post-unblinding analysis, those who switched from PLAC to LET improved DDFS in premenopausal (HR = 0.15; 95% CI 0.03-0.79; P = 0.02) and postmenopausal women (HR = 0.45; 95% CI 0.22-0.94; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS Extended LET after 5 years of tamoxifen was effective in pre- and postmenopausal women at diagnosis, and significantly better in those premenopausal. Women premenopausal at diagnosis should be considered for extended adjuvant therapy with LET if menopausal after completing tamoxifen.


The Lancet | 1978

REPEATED ADJUVANT CHEMOTHERAPY WITH PHENYLALANINE MUSTARD OR 5-FLUOROURACIL, CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE, AND PREDNISONE WITH OR WITHOUT RADIATION, AFTER MASTECTOMY FOR BREAST CANCER

David L. Ahmann; Scanlon Pw; Harry F. Bisel; John H. Edmonson; Stephen Frytak; W.S. Payne; Judith R. O'Fallon; Richard G. Hahn; J. N. Ingle; Michael J. O'Connell; Joseph Rubin

172 patients who had had mastectomy for breast cancer were treated by repeated adjuvant chemotherapy, either with phenylalanine mustard (P.A.M.) or a combination of cyclophosphamide, 5-fluorouracil, and prednisone (C.F.P.) with and without radiotherapy. Tumours recurred significantly more frequently and mortality tended to be higher in P.A.M.-treated patients than in patients on other treatment. The interval between surgery and disease recurrence was significantly shorter for P.A.M.-treated premenopausal but not postmenopausal patients than for patients of equivalent menstrual status treated with C.F.P. with or without radiation. The associations in premenopausal patients between the mode of treatment and both survival and the disease-free interval were significant before and after adjustment for variations between the treatment groups in the number of involved lymph nodes and the size of the primary tumour.


Cancer Research | 2009

Aromatase inhibitors versus tarnoxifen as adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor positive breast cancer: meta-analyses of randomized trials of monotherapy and switching strategies

J. N. Ingle; M. Dowsett; Jack Cuzick; C Davies

CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2008 Abstracts Abstract #12 Background: Meta-analyses (EBCTCG, Lancet 2005; 365:2687) have established in estrogen receptor (ER) positive breast cancer (BC) that 5 yrs of adjuvant tamoxifen (Tam) substantially reduces recurrence and mortality. The aromatase inhibitors (AIs) anastrozole, exemestane and letrozole have been studied in prospective trials in postmenopausal patients (pts) in comparison with Tam either as initial monotherapy (Cohort 1) or after 2 to 3 years of Tam in a switching strategy (Cohort 2); both to a total of 5 years (yrs) of endocrine therapy. Methods: Outcomes data submitted to EBCTCG were used in separate meta-analyses of Cohort 1 (trials: ATAC, BIG 1-98/IBCSG 18-98) and of Cohort 2 (trials: ABCSG 8, ARNO 95, IES/BIG 2-97, ITA). The primary analysis involved pts with tumors reported to be ER positive with endpoints of BC recurrence (all, local only, contralateral BC only, distant), death with and without recurrence, any death. Subgroup analyses included progesterone receptor (PgR) status, age, tumor grade and nodal status. All p-values were 2-sided. Results: Highlights include: Cohort 1: 9,856 pts with 50,000 woman-years of follow-up. At 5 yrs, AI therapy was associated with an absolute 2.7% (standard error [SE] 0.7) decrease in BC recurrence (10.7% vs 13.4%, relative decrease 20% [SE 5], p=0.00004). There appeared to be greater proportional decreases in isolated local recurrence (30% [SE 10], p=0.003) and in contralateral disease (38% [SE 12], p=0.003) than in distant recurrence (12% [SE 6], p= 0.04). AIs yielded an absolute 1.0% (SE 0.5) decrease in BC mortality (5.5% vs 6.5%, relative decrease 7% [SE 7], p=0.28). Cohort 2: 9,015 pts with 33,000 woman-years of follow-up. At 6 yrs from treatment divergence (i.e., 8-9 yrs from diagnosis), AI therapy was associated with an absolute 3.5% (SE 1.1) decrease in BC recurrence (12.6% vs 16.1%, relative decrease 29% [SE 6], p<0.00001). There appeared to be greater proportional reductions in isolated local recurrence (40% [SE 13], p=0.002) and in contralateral disease (35% [SE 16], p=0.03) than in distant recurrence (24% [SE 7], p= 0.001). AIs yielded an absolute 1.6% (SE 0.8) decrease in BC mortality (6.3% vs 8.0%, relative decrease 22% [SE 9], p=0.02). Subset analyses with respect to PgR status, age, tumor grade and nodal status revealed no apparent heterogeneity between the proportional reductions in recurrence and no indication of an increase or decrease in non-breast deaths with AIs in either cohort 1 or 2. Conclusions: In 2 separate meta-analyses considering both the initial monotherapy setting and the switching setting after 2 to 3 yrs of Tam, AIs produced significantly lower BC recurrence rates compared with Tam. Additional follow-up data will provide important information on long-term survival. Meta-analyses can be helpful even in the era of relatively large clinical trials. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(2 Suppl):Abstract nr 12.


Journal of Cellular Biochemistry | 2008

Estrogen-TGFβ Cross-Talk in Bone and Other Cell Types: Role of TIEG, Runx2, and Other Transcription Factors

John R. Hawse; Malayannan Subramaniam; J. N. Ingle; Merry Jo Oursler; Nalini M. Rajamannan; Thomas C. Spelsberg

It is well established that E2 and TGFβ have major biological effects in multiple tissues, including bone. The signaling pathways through which these two factors elicit their effects are well documented. However, the interaction between these two pathways and the potential consequences of cross‐talk between E2 and TGFβ continue to be elucidated. In this prospectus, we present known and potential roles of TIEG, Runx2, and other transcription factors as important mediators of signaling between these two pathways. J. Cell. Biochem. 103: 383–392, 2008.


Cancer Research | 2009

Outcomes of Women Who Were Premenopausal at Diagnosis of Early Stage Breast Cancer in the NCIC CTG MA17 Trial.

Paul E. Goss; J. N. Ingle; Silvana Martino; Nicholas J. Robert; Hyman B. Muss; Lois Shepherd; K. I. Pritchard; Robert B. Livingston; Nancy E. Davidson; E. Perez; David A Cameron; Timothy J. Whelan; M. Palmer; Dongsheng Tu

Background: MA17 showed that adjuvant letrozole after 5 years of tamoxifen markedly reduced the risk of recurrence in women with ER+ early stage breast cancer and improved overall survival in women presenting with node +ve disease. Most trials of early adjuvant aromatase inhibitor therapy required women to be postmenopausal at diagnosis to be eligible. We report here on a subset of women in the MA17 trial who were premenopausal at initial diagnosis and in whom subsequent menopause, prior to randomization, may have influenced their outcome on extended adjuvant letrozole.Methods: Women randomized to MA17 were divided into 2 groups: 1) pre-menopausal ( Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(24 Suppl):Abstract nr 13.


The Lancet | 2011

Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery on 10-year recurrence and 15-year breast cancer death

Sarah Darby; Paul McGale; Candace R. Correa; C Taylor; R. Arriagada; M Clarke; D Cutter; C Davies; Marianne Ewertz; Jon Godwin; Richard Gray; Lori J. Pierce; Timothy J. Whelan; Y Wang; Richard Peto; Kathy S. Albain; Stewart J. Anderson; William E. Barlow; Jonas Bergh; Judith M. Bliss; Marc Buyse; David Cameron; E. Carrasco; A. S. Coates; Rory Collins; Joseph P. Costantino; Jack Cuzick; Nancy E. Davidson; K. Davies; Antonella Delmestri

Summary Background After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy reduces recurrence and breast cancer death, but it may do so more for some groups of women than for others. We describe the absolute magnitude of these reductions according to various prognostic and other patient characteristics, and relate the absolute reduction in 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in 10-year recurrence risk. Methods We undertook a meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10 801 women in 17 randomised trials of radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery, 8337 of whom had pathologically confirmed node-negative (pN0) or node-positive (pN+) disease. Findings Overall, radiotherapy reduced the 10-year risk of any (ie, locoregional or distant) first recurrence from 35·0% to 19·3% (absolute reduction 15·7%, 95% CI 13·7–17·7, 2p<0·00001) and reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 25·2% to 21·4% (absolute reduction 3·8%, 1·6–6·0, 2p=0·00005). In women with pN0 disease (n=7287), radiotherapy reduced these risks from 31·0% to 15·6% (absolute recurrence reduction 15·4%, 13·2–17·6, 2p<0·00001) and from 20·5% to 17·2% (absolute mortality reduction 3·3%, 0·8–5·8, 2p=0·005), respectively. In these women with pN0 disease, the absolute recurrence reduction varied according to age, grade, oestrogen-receptor status, tamoxifen use, and extent of surgery, and these characteristics were used to predict large (≥20%), intermediate (10–19%), or lower (<10%) absolute reductions in the 10-year recurrence risk. Absolute reductions in 15-year risk of breast cancer death in these three prediction categories were 7·8% (95% CI 3·1–12·5), 1·1% (–2·0 to 4·2), and 0·1% (–7·5 to 7·7) respectively (trend in absolute mortality reduction 2p=0·03). In the few women with pN+ disease (n=1050), radiotherapy reduced the 10-year recurrence risk from 63·7% to 42·5% (absolute reduction 21·2%, 95% CI 14·5–27·9, 2p<0·00001) and the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 51·3% to 42·8% (absolute reduction 8·5%, 1·8–15·2, 2p=0·01). Overall, about one breast cancer death was avoided by year 15 for every four recurrences avoided by year 10, and the mortality reduction did not differ significantly from this overall relationship in any of the three prediction categories for pN0 disease or for pN+ disease. Interpretation After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy to the conserved breast halves the rate at which the disease recurs and reduces the breast cancer death rate by about a sixth. These proportional benefits vary little between different groups of women. By contrast, the absolute benefits from radiotherapy vary substantially according to the characteristics of the patient and they can be predicted at the time when treatment decisions need to be made. Funding Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.Breast-conserving surgery can excise all detected macroscopic tumor tissue in women with early-stage breast cancer. However, the presence of microscopic tumor foci in the conserved breast of these women, if untreated, may lead to locoregional recurrence and/or life-threatening distant recurrence. Radiotherapy in the conserved breast after surgery may reduce rates of recurrence and breast cancer death more among some groups of women than in others. This meta-analysis assessed the extent to which the absolute reduction by radiotherapy in 10-year risk of first recurrence differs among women with different prognostic and other characteristics and relates the absolute reduction in the 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in the 10-year recurrence risk. 92 Obstetrical and Gynecological Survey

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Matthew P. Goetz

Indiana University Bloomington

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D. Tu

McMaster University

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