J. Oerlemans

Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long—28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long—28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

One-to-one coupling of glacial climate variability in Greenland and Antarctica.

Precise knowledge of the phase relationship between climate changes in the two hemispheres is a key for understanding the Earth’s climate dynamics. For the last glacial period, ice core studies have revealed strong coupling of the largest millennial-scale warm events in Antarctica with the longest Dansgaard–Oeschger events in Greenland through the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. It has been unclear, however, whether the shorter Dansgaard–Oeschger events have counterparts in the shorter and less prominent Antarctic temperature variations, and whether these events are linked by the same mechanism. Here we present a glacial climate record derived from an ice core from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, which represents South Atlantic climate at a resolution comparable with the Greenland ice core records. After methane synchronization with an ice core from North Greenland, the oxygen isotope record from the Dronning Maud Land ice core shows a one-to-one coupling between all Antarctic warm events and Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger events by the bipolar seesaw6. The amplitude of the Antarctic warm events is found to be linearly dependent on the duration of the concurrent stadial in the North, suggesting that they all result from a similar reduction in the meridional overturning circulation.

Modelled atmospheric temperatures and global sea levels over the past million years

Marine records of sediment oxygen isotope compositions show that the Earths climate has gone through a succession of glacial and interglacial periods during the past million years. But the interpretation of the oxygen isotope records is complicated because both isotope storage in ice sheets and deep-water temperature affect the recorded isotopic composition. Separating these two effects would require long records of either sea level or deep-ocean temperature, which are currently not available. Here we use a coupled model of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and ocean temperatures, forced to match an oxygen isotope record for the past million years compiled from 57 globally distributed sediment cores, to quantify both contributions simultaneously. We find that the ice-sheet contribution to the variability in oxygen isotope composition varied from ten per cent in the beginning of glacial periods to sixty per cent at glacial maxima, suggesting that strong ocean cooling preceded slow ice-sheet build-up. The model yields mutually consistent time series of continental mean surface temperatures between 40 and 80° N, ice volume and global sea level. We find that during extreme glacial stages, air temperatures were 17 ± 1.8 °C lower than present, with a 120 ± 10 m sea level equivalent of continental ice present.

Sensitivity of Glaciers and Small Ice Caps to Greenhouse Warming

Recent field programs on glaciers have supplied information that makes simulation of glacier mass balance with meteorological models meaningful. An estimate of world-wide glacier sensitivity based on a modeling study of 12 selected glaciers situated in widely differing climatic regimes shows that for a uniform 1 K warming the area-weighted glacier mass balance will decrease by 0.40 meter per year. This corresponds to a sea-level rise of 0.58 millimeter per year, a value significantly less than earlier estimates.

Quantifying Global Warming from the Retreat of Glaciers

Records of glacier fluctuations compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service can be used to derive an independent estimate of global warming during the last 100 years. Records of different glaciers are made comparable by a two-step scaling procedure: one allowing for differences in glacier geometry, the other for differences in climate sensitivity. The retreat of glaciers during the last 100 years appears to be coherent over the globe. On the basis of modeling of the climate sensitivity of glaciers, the observed glacier retreat can be explained by a linear warming trend of 0.66 kelvin per century.

Large and rapid melt-induced velocity changes in the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Continuous Global Positioning System observations reveal rapid and large ice velocity fluctuations in the western ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Within days, ice velocity reacts to increased meltwater production and increases by a factor of 4. Such a response is much stronger and much faster than previously reported. Over a longer period of 17 years, annual ice velocities have decreased slightly, which suggests that the englacial hydraulic system adjusts constantly to the variable meltwater input, which results in a more or less constant ice flux over the years. The positive-feedback mechanism between melt rate and ice velocity appears to be a seasonal process that may have only a limited effect on the response of the ice sheet to climate warming over the next decades.

Model study of the spatial distribution of the energy and mass balance of Morteratschgletscher, Switzerland

To investigate the spatial distribution of the energy- and mass-balance fluxes of a glacier, a two-dimensional mass-balance model was developed and applied to Morteratschgletscher, Switzerland. The model is driven by meteorological input from four synoptic weather stations located in the vicinity of Morteratschgletscher. The model results were compared to observations made on the glacier. The calculated mean specific mass balance is -0.47 m w.e. for 1999, and 0.23 m w.e. for 2000. Net shortwave radiation shows a minimum at around 3350 m a.s.l., due to the effects of shading, slope, aspect, reflection from the slopes, and obstruction of the sky. Ignoring these effects results in a 37% increase in the annual incoming shortwave radiation on the glacier, causing 0.34 m w.e. more ablation. A 1°C change in the air temperature results in a shift of 0.67 m w.e. in the mean specific mass balance, while altering the precipitation by 10% causes a change of 0.17 m w.e.

Retreating alpine glaciers: increased melt rates due to accumulation of dust (Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland)

The automatic weather station (AWS) on the snout of the Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, has delivered a unique 12 year meteorological dataset from the ablation zone of a temperate glacier. This dataset can be used to study multi-annual trends in the character of the surface energy budget. Since 2003 there has been a substantial darkening of the glacier tongue due to the accumulation of mineral and biogenic dust. The typical surface albedo in summer has dropped from 0.32 to 0.15. We have analysed the implications of the lowered albedo for the energy balance and the annual ablation. For the 4 year period 2003-06, the decreased albedo caused an additional removal of about 3.5 m of ice. Calculations with an energy-balance model show that the same increase in ablation is obtained by keeping the ice albedo fixed to 0.32 and increasing the air temperature by 1.7 K. Our analysis confirms that for retreating glaciers the deposition of dust from exposed side moraines on the glacier surface constitutes an important feedback mechanism. The mineral dust stimulates the growth of algae, lowers the surface albedo, enhances the melt rates, and thereby facilitates the further retreat of the glacier snout.

Simulated future sea-level rise due to glacier melt based on regionally and seasonally resolved temperature changes

Climate change is expected over the next century as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere, and global average sea level will consequently rise. Estimates indicate that by 2100 sea level will be about 500 mm higher than today as a result of global warming, with thermal expansion of sea water accounting for over half of this rise. The melting of glaciers and ice sheets will contribute much of the remainder. We present an improved calculation of glacier melt, which uses the temperature patterns generated by a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, as inputs to a seasonally and regionally differentiated glacier model,. Under specified greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings, our model predicts that glacier melt equivalent to 132 mm of sea-level rise will occur over the period 1990–2100, with a further 76 mm from melting of the Greenland ice sheet. These figures fall within the range of previous estimates made using simpler models; the advantage of our approach is that we take into account the effects of regional and seasonal temperature variations. Our inclusion of these effects increases the calculated glacier melt by 20%.

Surface mass-balance observations and automatic weather station data along a transect near Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland

Abstract Surface mass-balance data from the Kangerlussuaq transect (K-transect) located on the western part of the Greenland ice sheet near 67° N are presented. The series covers the period 1990-2003 and is the longest series of surface mass-balance measurements in Greenland. The surface mass-balance measurements cover an altitude range of 390-1850 m and show a linear increase of the specific mass balance, with a mass-balance gradient of 3.7 × 10–3 m m–1 and a mean equilibrium-line altitude of 1535 ma.s.l. Interannual variability shows a weak 4 yearly periodicity. In addition to the surface mass-balance data, automatic weather station data at an elevation of approximately 1010m are available for the period 1997-2002. These data are used to explain observed surface mass-balance anomalies over the same 5 years. It is shown that variations in shortwave radiation dominate interannual variability. The mean annual cycle of temperature is characterized by a maximum in summer around the melting point, leading to a mean summer outgoing longwave radiation of approximately 314 W–2. The mean annual cycle in wind speed shows a maximum in winter (on average around 8 m s–1) and a minimum in summer (on average around around 5 m s–1), which is characteristic for a katabatic forcing. During summer the net radiation is on average about 61 Wm–2, which is used for ice melting at a rate of typically 2 cm w.e.d-1. Net radiation contributes 84% of the total energy used for summer melting averaged over the 5 years.