J.P. Hettelingh

Use of dynamic soil-vegetation models to assess impacts of nitrogen deposition on plant species composition: an overview

Field observations and experimental data of effects of nitrogen (N) deposition on plant species diversity have been used to derive empirical critical N loads for various ecosystems. The great advantage of such an approach is the inclusion of field evidence, but there are also restrictions, such as the absence of explicit criteria regarding significant effects on the vegetation, and the impossibility to predict future impacts when N deposition changes. Model approaches can account for this. In this paper, we review the possibilities of static and dynamic multispecies models in combination with dynamic soil-vegetation models to (1) predict plant species composition as a function of atmospheric N deposition and (2) calculate critical N loads in relation to a prescribed protection level of the species composition. The similarities between the models are presented, but also several important differences, including the use of different indicators for N and acidity and the prediction of individual plant species vs. plant communities. A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the various models, including their validation status, is given. Furthermore, examples are given of critical load calculations with the model chains and their comparison with empirical critical N loads. We show that linked biogeochemistry-biodiversity models for N have potential for applications to support European policy to reduce N input, but the definition of damage thresholds for terrestrial biodiversity represents a major challenge. There is also a clear need for further testing and validation of the models against long-term monitoring or long-term experimental data sets and against large-scale survey data. This requires a focused data collection in Europe, combing vegetation descriptions with variables affecting the species diversity, such as soil acidity, nutrient status and water availability. Finally, there is a need for adaptation and upscaling of the models beyond the regions for which dose-response relationships have been parameterized, to make them generally applicable.

From acid rain to climate change

Updated air pollution science and policies address human health, ecosystem effects, and climate change in Europe. The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) was established in 1979 to control damage to ecosystems and cultural heritage from acid rain, initially in Europe (1). Extended by eight protocols, most recently the Gothenburg Protocol (GP) signed in 1999, it has been key for developing cross-border air pollution control strategies over the UNECE region, which includes the United States and Canada. We describe how recent amendments to the GP reflect improved scientific knowledge on pollution, environmental relations, and links between regional air pollution and global climate change.

Multi-Effect Critical Loads Used in Multi-Pollutant Reduction Agreements in Europe

The scientific support of negotiations on emission reductions under the framework of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution of the UN Economic Commission for Europe has been based during the last decade on the integrated assessment of sources, including abatement costs, and risks to receptors (e.g. forests, lakes) quantified by critical loads. The shift from a single-pollutant (sulfur) protocol in 1994 to a multi-pollutant protocol in 1999 necessitated an extension of the methods by which critical loads were computed and mapped. Instead of a single critical load for acidification, methods were now developed to assess the risk of acidifying effects of both sulfur and nitrogen deposition as well as the eutrophying effects of nitrogen on sensitive elements of the environment. Collaboration with a scientific network of 24 national institutions ensured a successful implementation of the proposed methodology across countries. This paper summarizes the methodology, describes the latest input data and presents critical load maps on the basis of which about 98% and 78% of European ecosystems would be protected against acidification and eutrophication, respectively, by the year 2010 according to the multi-pollutant multi-effect protocol.

Characterization of Critical Load Exceedances in Europe

The excess of acidic and eutrophying depositions over critical loads (critical load exceedances) is considered a measure for the risk of harmful effects on sensitive elements of the environment. The magnitude and the geographical distribution of critical load exceedances over Europe vary with the extent to which national emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and ammonia are reduced. The scientific support of negotiations on emission reductions in the framework of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) of the UN Economic Commission for Europe has been based on the integrated assessment of sources, including abatement costs, and risks to receptors (e.g. forests, lakes) using critical load exceedances. The shift from a single-pollutant (sulfur) protocol in 1994 to a multi-pollutant protocol in 1999 necessitated an extension of the methods by which critical load exceedances are computed and mapped. The focus changed from the protection of the most sensitive ecosystem against excessive deposition of one pollutant, to an assessment of the accumulated exceedance by more pollutants of all ecosystems. This paper presents and compares the different characterisations (“gap-closure methods”) used in those negotiations. It is shown that the approach finally used has several appealing features, but treats the exceedance as a linear damage function, thus going beyond the critical load definition as a simple on-off limit value.

Integrated scenarios of acidification and climate change in Asia and Europe

Abstract Two integrated assessment models, one for climate change on a global scale (IMAGE 2) and another for the regional analysis of the impacts of acidifying deposition (RAINS), have been linked to assess the impacts of reducing sulphur emission on ecosystems in Asia and Europe. While such reductions have the beneficial effect of reducing the deposition of acidifying compounds and thus the exceedance of critical loads of ecosystems, they also reduce the global level of sulphate aerosols and thus enhance the impact of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, and consequently increase the risk of potential vegetation changes. The calculations indicate that about 70% of the ecosystems in Asia would be affected by either acid deposition or climate change in the year 2100 (up from 20% in 1990) for both sulphur emission scenarios (controlled and uncontrolled), whereas in Europe the impacted area would remain at a level of about 50%, with a dip early next century. More generally, the effects of reducing sulphur emissions and thus enhancing climate change would about balance for the Asian region, whereas for Europe the desirable impact of sulphur emission reductions would greatly outweigh its undesirable effects.

A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate

A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate.

Future scenarios of nitrogen in Europe

The future effects of nitrogen in the environment will depend on the extent of nitrogen use and the practical application techniques of nitrogen in a similar way as in the past. Projections and scenarios are appropriate tools for extrapolating current knowledge into the future. However, these tools will not allow future system turnovers to be predicted.

Impacts of Nitrogen Deposition on Ecosystem Services in Interaction with Other Nutrients, Air Pollutants and Climate Change

Nitrogen (N) deposition affects many ecosystem services, ranging from: (i) provisioning services such as timber/wood fuel production, (ii) regulating services such as carbon sequestration and pollutant filtering leading to the provision of clean air and water, (iii) supporting services such as nutrient cycling and primary production, and (iv) cultural services such as recreation and landscape features or species with aesthetic or spiritual value. This chapter presents discussion of the major relationships between N deposition and ecosystem services as distinguished in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. An important issue is how other factors, such as changes in climate, CO2 and tropospheric ozone exposure and other nutrients, such as phosphate, affect those ecosystem services, and how they should be taken into account in critical load assessments, while accounting for regional differences. Another important issue is the linkage between plant species diversity changes, being the main indicator for critical N loads, and ecosystem services, including faunal species diversity and biodiversity-based products, such as impacts on edible wild plants and medicinal plants. Consideration is also given to the implications of these issues for the CBD and LRTAP Conventions.

Effects and Empirical Critical Loads of Nitrogen for Europe

Empirical critical loads of nitrogen (N) were first presented in a background document for a workshop in 1992 in Sweden. Since their first presentation, the critical loads of N have been updated at regular intervals and for a large number of habitats. This chapter presents a brief history of the empirical critical loads and explains the process of determination of empirical critical loads for nitrogen and their reliability. For European habitats (defined as EUNIS and Natura 2000 habitat classes), current empirical critical loads for nitrogen are presented. For each of these habitats, the main effects of enhanced nitrogen inputs are discussed that have formed the basis for the determination of the empirical critical loads. Factors other than nitrogen, that may affect ecosystem processes or ecosystem functioning, are discussed as these may modify the nitrogen critical load under specific conditions.

Past and future exceedances of nitrogen critical loads in Europe.

Critical loads of acidity and nutrient nitrogen — simple measures of the sensitivity of ecosystems to deposition — have been widely used for setting emission reduction targets in Europe. In contrast to sulfur, the emissions of nitrogen compounds remain high in the future. This is also true for the exceedances of critical loads until 2010. Looking further into the future, climate change is likely to influence ecosystem sensitivity, and thus critical loads. It is shown that higher temperatures, changed precipitation patterns, and modified net primary production mainly increase critical loads, except in mountainous and arid regions. Using consistent scenarios of climate change and air pollution from a recently completed European study (AIR-CLIM), it is shown that the exceedances in 2100 of the critical loads are declining in comparison to 2010. However, exceedances of critical loads of nutrient nitrogen remain substantial, even under the most stringent scenario. This confirms the increasing role nitrogen plays in environmental problems in comparison to sulfur. Thus research should focus on the effects of nitrogen in the environment, especially under conditions of climate change, to support nitrogen-emission mitigating policies. This not only reduces acidification and eutrophication, but also helps curb the formation of tropospheric ozone.