J. R. Elliott

The 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (central Italy): A source mechanism and implications for seismic hazard

An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2009) American Geophysical Union.

The Seismic Structure of the Sun

Global Oscillation Network Group data reveal that the internal structure of the sun can be well represented by a calibrated standard model. However, immediately beneath the convection zone and at the edge of the energy-generating core, the sound-speed variation is somewhat smoother in the sun than it is in the model. This could be a consequence of chemical inhomogeneity that is too severe in the model, perhaps owing to inaccurate modeling of gravitational settling or to neglected macroscopic motion that may be present in the sun. Accurate knowledge of the suns structure enables inferences to be made about the physics that controls the sun; for example, through the opacity, the equation of state, or wave motion. Those inferences can then be used elsewhere in astrophysics.

Complex multifault rupture during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

An earthquake with a dozen faults The 2016 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake was one of the largest ever to hit New Zealand. Hamling et al. show with a new slip model that it was an incredibly complex event. Unlike most earthquakes, multiple faults ruptured to generate the ground shaking. A remarkable 12 faults ruptured overall, with the rupture jumping between faults located up to 15 km away from each other. The earthquake should motivate rethinking of certain seismic hazard models, which do not presently allow for this unusual complex rupture pattern. Science, this issue p. eaam7194 At least 12 faults spaced up to 15 kilometers apart ruptured during the magnitude 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. INTRODUCTION On 14 November 2016 (local time), northeastern South Island of New Zealand was struck by a major moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake. The Kaikōura earthquake was the most powerful experienced in the region in more than 150 years. The whole of New Zealand reported shaking, with widespread damage across much of northern South Island and in the capital city, Wellington. The earthquake straddled two distinct seismotectonic domains, breaking multiple faults in the contractional North Canterbury fault zone and the dominantly strike-slip Marlborough fault system. RATIONALE Earthquakes are conceptually thought to occur along a single fault. Although this is often the case, the need to account for multiple segment ruptures challenges seismic hazard assessments and potential maximum earthquake magnitudes. Field observations from many past earthquakes and numerical models suggest that a rupture will halt if it has to step over a distance as small as 5 km to continue on a different fault. The Kaikōura earthquake’s complexity defies many conventional assumptions about the degree to which earthquake ruptures are controlled by fault segmentation and provides additional motivation to rethink these issues in seismic hazard models. RESULTS Field observations, in conjunction with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), Global Positioning System (GPS), and seismology data, reveal the Kaikōura earthquake to be one of the most complex earthquakes ever recorded with modern instrumental techniques. The rupture propagated northward for more than 170 km along both mapped and unmapped faults before continuing offshore at the island’s northeastern extent. A tsunami of up to 3 m in height was detected at Kaikōura and at three other tide gauges along the east coast of both the North and South Islands. Geodetic and geological field observations reveal surface ruptures along at least 12 major crustal faults and extensive uplift along much of the coastline. Surface displacements measured by GPS and satellite radar data show horizontal offsets of ~6 m. In addition, a fault-bounded block (the Papatea block) was uplifted by up to 8 m and translated south by 4 to 5 m. Modeling suggests that some of the faults slipped by more than 20 m, at depths of 10 to 15 km, with surface slip of ~10 m consistent with field observations of offset roads and fences. Although we can explain most of the deformation by crustal faulting alone, global moment tensors show a larger thrust component, indicating that the earthquake also involved some slip along the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction interface, which lies ~20 km beneath Kaikōura. Including this as a fault source in the inversion suggests that up to 4 m of predominantly reverse slip may have occurred on the subduction zone beneath the crustal faults, contributing ~10 to 30% of the total moment. CONCLUSION Although the unusual multifault rupture observed in the Kaikōura earthquake may be partly related to the geometrically complex nature of the faults in this region, this event emphasizes the importance of reevaluating how rupture scenarios are defined for seismic hazard models in plate boundary zones worldwide. Observed ground deformation from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake. (A and B) Photos showing the coastal uplift of 2 to 3 m associated with the Papatea block [labeled in (C)]. The inset in (A) shows an aerial view of New Zealand. Red lines denote the location of known active faults. The black box indicates the Marlborough fault system

Slip in the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand

The 3rd September 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield and 21st February 2011 Mw 6.3 Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquakes occurred on previously unknown faults. We use InSAR ground displacements, SAR amplitude offsets, field mapping, aerial photographs, satellite optical imagery, a LiDAR DEM and teleseismic body-wave modeling to constrain the pattern of faulting in these earthquakes. The InSAR measurements reveal slip on multiple strike-slip segments and secondary reverse faults associated with the Darfield main shock. Fault orientations are consistent with those expected from the GPS-derived strain field. The InSAR line-of-sight displacement field indicates the main fault rupture is about 45 km long, and is confined largely to the upper 10 km of the crust. Slip on the individual fault segments of up to 8 m at 4 km depth indicate stress drops of 6–10 MPa. In each event, rupture initiated on a reverse fault segment, before continuing onto a strike-slip segment. The non-double couple seismological moment tensors for each event are matched well by the sum of double couple equivalent moment tensors for fault slip determined by InSAR. The slip distributions derived from InSAR observations of both the Darfield and Christchurch events show a 15-km-long gap in fault slip south-west of Christchurch, which may present a continuing seismic hazard if a further unknown fault structure of significant size should exist there.

Quantitative morphology, recent evolution, and future activity of the Kameni Islands volcano, Santorini, Greece

Linking quantitative measurements of lava fl ow surface morphology with historical observations of eruptions is an important, but underexploited, route to understanding eruptions of silicic magma. We present here a new, high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) for the intracaldera Kameni Islands, Santorini, Greece, which reveals the potential of high-resolution imaging (at ~1 m per pixel) of lava-fl ow fi elds by airborne light detection and ranging laser radar (LiDAR). The new DEM has an order-of-magnitude better resolution than earlier models, and reveals a wealth of surface morphological information on the dacite lava fl ows of the Kameni Islands. In turn, this provides quantitative constraints on the bulk rheology of the emplaced lava fl ows. When combined with a reanalysis of contemporary eruption accounts, these data yield important insights into the behavior of dacite magma during slow effusive eruptions on Santorini and elsewhere, and allow the development of forecasts for the style and duration of future eruptions. Kameni Island lava fl ows exhibit classic surface morphologies associated with viscous magma: levees and compression folds. Levee heights and fl ow widths are consistent with a Bingham rheology, and lava yield strengths of 3‐7 ◊ 104 Pa. Compression folds have long wavelengths (15‐25 m), and change only a little downstream; this is consistent with observations of other terrestrial silicic lava fl ows. The blocky a‘a dacite lava-fl ow margins show a scale-invariant morphology with a typical fractal dimension that is indistinguishable from basaltic Hawaiian a‘a, confi rming that the fractal dimension is insensitive to the composition of the fl ow. Dome-growth rates during eruptions of the Kameni Islands in 1866 and 1939 are consistent with a model of slow infl ation of a dome with a strong crust. Lava domes on the Kameni Islands have a crustal yield strength (4 ◊ 107 Pa) that is lower by a factor of 2‐4 than the domes at Pinatubo and Mount St. Helens. The dome-height model combined with the apparent time-predictable nature of volcanic eruptions of the Kameni Islands allow us to suggest that should an eruption occur during 2006, it will last for more than 2.7 yr and produce a dome ~115‐125 m high.

Spatial variations in fault friction related to lithology from rupture and afterslip of the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake

Following earthquakes, faults are often observed to continue slipping aseismically. It has been proposed that this afterslip occurs on parts of the fault with rate-strengthening friction that are stressed by the main shock, but our understanding has been limited by a lack of immediate, high-resolution observations. Here we show that the behavior of afterslip following the 2014 South Napa earthquake in California varied over distances of only a few kilometers. This variability cannot be explained by coseismic stress changes alone. We present daily positions from continuous and survey GPS sites that we remeasured within 12 h of the main shock and surface displacements from the new Sentinel-1 radar mission. This unique geodetic data set constrains the distribution and evolution of coseismic and postseismic fault slip with exceptional resolution in space and time. We suggest that the observed heterogeneity in behavior is caused by lithological controls on the frictional properties of the fault plane.

Assessing the ability of Pleiades stereo imagery to determine height changes in earthquakes: A case study for the El Mayor-Cucapah epicentral area

High-resolution surface topography is valuable for studying coseismic fault zone deformation and fault geometry. It enables us to measure three-dimensional surface displacements in earthquakes, as shown in recent studies that used light detection and ranging (LiDAR) to determine coseismic motion. However, the applicability of LiDAR is limited by its relatively high cost and low availability. In this study, we use the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake to demonstrate the capability of Pleiades stereo imagery to measure coseismic vertical ground displacement. We acquired post-earthquake Pleiades tri-stereo imagery from backward, near-nadir and forward orientations for a 45 km × 7 km portion of the epicentral area. 1-m resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) were produced with the four different combinations of incidence angles and compared to the post-earthquake LiDAR DEM. Elevations from tri-stereo have slightly (∼15%) smaller uncertainties than bi-stereo as the tri-stereo DEM incorporates more observations. Elevation differences between the Pleiades and post-earthquake LiDAR DEMs show that the vertical accuracy of the Pleiades DEMs is ∼0.3 m. By differencing the Pleiades DEM and the pre-earthquake, 5-m resolution LiDAR DEM, we mapped metre and sub-metre offsets along the faults obtaining results comparable to a previous study that differenced the two LiDAR DEMs. This is the first case study of assessing very high-resolution (VHR) satellite stereo imagery to determine sub-metre vertical ground displacement in an earthquake. By extension, we expect it to be possible to measure sub-metre vertical offsets occurring in earthquakes using pre- and post-earthquake VHR stereo imagery.

Great earthquakes in low strain rate continental interiors: An example from SE Kazakhstan

The Lepsy fault of the northern Tien Shan, SE Kazakhstan, extends E-W 120 km from the high mountains of the Dzhungarian Ala-tau, a subrange of the northern Tien Shan, into the low-lying Kazakh platform. It is an example of an active structure that connects a more rapidly deforming mountain region with an apparently stable continental region and follows a known Palaeozoic structure. Field-based and satellite observations reveal an ∼10 m vertical offset exceptionally preserved along the entire length of the fault. Geomorphic analysis and age control from radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating methods indicate that the scarp formed in the Holocene and was generated by at least two substantial earthquakes. The most recent event, dated to sometime after ∼400 years B.P., is likely to have ruptured the entire ∼120 km fault length in a M w 7.5-8.2 earthquake. The Lepsy fault kinematics were characterized using digital elevation models and high-resolution satellite imagery, which indicate that the predominant sense of motion is reverse right lateral with a fault strike, dip, and slip vector azimuth of ∼110°, 50°S, and 317-343°, respectively, which is consistent with predominant N-S shortening related to the India-Eurasia collision. In light of these observations, and because the activity of the Lepsy fault would have been hard to ascertain if it had not ruptured in the recent past, we note that the absence of known active faults within low-relief and low strain rate continental interiors does not always imply an absence of seismic hazard.

The role of space-based observation in understanding and responding to active tectonics and earthquakes

The quantity and quality of satellite-geodetic measurements of tectonic deformation have increased dramatically over the past two decades improving our ability to observe active tectonic processes. We now routinely respond to earthquakes using satellites, mapping surface ruptures and estimating the distribution of slip on faults at depth for most continental earthquakes. Studies directly link earthquakes to their causative faults allowing us to calculate how resulting changes in crustal stress can influence future seismic hazard. This revolution in space-based observation is driving advances in models that can explain the time-dependent surface deformation and the long-term evolution of fault zones and tectonic landscapes.

The 2013 Balochistan earthquake: An extraordinary or completely ordinary event?

The 2013 Balochistan earthquake, a predominantly strike-slip event, occurred on the arcuate Hoshab fault in the eastern Makran linking an area of mainly left-lateral shear in the east to one of shortening in the west. The difficulty of reconciling predominantly strike-slip motion with this shortening has led to a wide range of unconventional kinematic and dynamic models. Here we determine the vertical component of motion on the fault using a 1 m resolution elevation model derived from postearthquake Pleiades satellite imagery. We find a constant local ratio of vertical to horizontal slip through multiple past earthquakes, suggesting the kinematic style of the Hoshab fault has remained constant throughout the late Quaternary. We also find evidence for active faulting on a series of nearby, subparallel faults, showing that failure in large, distributed and rare earthquakes is the likely method of faulting across the eastern Makran, reconciling geodetic and long-term records of strain accumulation.