J. Sakari Salonen

Proxy comparison in ancient peat sediments: pollen, macrofossil and plant DNA

We compared DNA, pollen and macrofossil data obtained from Weichselian interstadial (age more than 40 kyr) and Holocene (maximum age 8400 cal yr BP) peat sediments from northern Europe and used them to reconstruct contemporary floristic compositions at two sites. The majority of the samples provided plant DNA sequences of good quality with success amplification rates depending on age. DNA and sequencing analysis provided five plant taxa from the older site and nine taxa from the younger site, corresponding to 7% and 15% of the total number of taxa identified by the three proxies together. At both sites, pollen analysis detected the largest (54) and DNA the lowest (10) number of taxa, but five of the DNA taxa were not detected by pollen and macrofossils. The finding of a larger overlap between DNA and pollen than between DNA and macrofossils proxies seems to go against our previous suggestion based on lacustrine sediments that DNA originates principally from plant tissues and less from pollen. At both sites, we also detected Quercus spp. DNA, but few pollen grains were found in the record, and these are normally interpreted as long-distance dispersal. We confirm that in palaeoecological investigations, sedimentary DNA analysis is less comprehensive than classical morphological analysis, but is a complementary and important tool to obtain a more complete picture of past flora.

Comparing different calibration methods (WA/WA-PLS regression and Bayesian modelling) and different-sized calibration sets in pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction

We compare a Bayesian modelling-based technique with weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression in pollen-based summer temperature transfer function calibration. We test the methods using a new, 113-sample calibration set from Estonia, Lithuania and European Russia, and a Holocene fossil pollen sequence from Lake Kharinei, a previously studied lake in northeast European Russia. We find WA-PLS to outperform WA, probably because of smaller edge-effect biases in the ends of the calibration set gradient. The Bayesian-based calibration models show further improved performance compared with WA-PLS in leave-one-out cross-validation, while additional h-block cross-validation shows the Bayesian method to be little affected by spatial autocorrelation. Comparison with independent climate proxies reveals, however, some clear biases in the Bayesian palaeotemperature reconstructions, likely reflecting in part some specific limitations of our calibration set. As the selected prior parameters can significantly affect both Bayesian cross-validation performance and reconstructions, there is a clear need to further test the Bayesian method in different geographic contexts and over different timescales, with special attention given to the selection of the most realistic priors in each situation. In general, our finding that statistically well-performing transfer functions may produce clearly differing palaeotemperature reconstructions urges caution in transfer function-based inferences. We additionally test a spatially restricted, 58-sample subset of the full 113-sample calibration set. We find some reduced biases with the smaller set, likely because of complex, partially bimodal responses of several taxa along the longer temperature gradient, ill-suited for calibration methods assuming unimodal responses to climate.

The effect of calibration data set selection on quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstructions

Quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstructions based on biological fossils are a major source of information on long-term climatic variability. Such reconstructions typically use some kind of a modern calibration data set describing the variation of the studied biological group in present-day climate space. Here, we explore the effect of calibration data set selection on palaeoclimatic reconstructions, by creating alternate calibration data sets via stratified random sampling to reconstruct mean July temperature (Tjul) for four fossil pollen sequences from northern Europe. We show that palaeoclimatic reconstructions using methods based on taxon-response models can be highly sensitive to the calibration data set used. In particular, the absolute reconstructed temperatures show great sensitivity to calibration data selection, which suggests that the absolute values of palaeoclimatic reconstructions may not be robust. By contrast, we find the relative shapes of the reconstructed curves to be more robust to calibration data selection because taxa tend to occupy similar relative locations along the sampled gradient regardless of calibration data set location. Based on this robustness of relative palaeoclimate curves, we suggest a debiasing procedure in which palaeoclimate values are estimated by fixing the relative curve with the modern observed value, thus correcting biases resulting from calibration data selection.

Trees tracking a warmer climate: The Holocene range shift of hazel (Corylus avellana) in northern Europe

Palaeoecological records provide a rich source of information to explore how plant distribution ranges respond to climate changes, but their use is complicated by the fact that, especially when based on pollen data, they are often spatially too inaccurate to reliably determine past range limits. To solve this problem, we focus on hazel (Corylus avellana), a tree species with large and heavy fruits (nuts), which provide firm evidence of the local occurrence of species in the past. We combine the fossil nut records of hazel from Fennoscandia, map its maximum distribution range during the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) and compare the fossil record with the Holocene hazel range shift as simulated by the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model. The results show that the current northern range limit of hazel in central and eastern Fennoscandia is constrained by too short growing seasons and too long and cold winters and demonstrate that the species responded to the HTM warming of about 2.5°C (relative to the present) by shifting its range limit up to 63–64°N, reached a rough equilibrium with the HTM climatic conditions and retreated from there to about 60°N during the last 4000 years in response to the late-Holocene cooling. Thus, the projected future warming of about 2.5°C would reverse the long-term southward retraction of species’ northern range limit in Europe and is likely to lead to hazel being a common, regeneratively reproductive species up to 63–64°N. In addition to the accuracy of the projected warming, the likelihood of this scenario will depend on inter-specific competition with other tree taxa and the potential of hazel to migrate and its population to grow in balance with the warming. In general, the range dynamics from the HTM to the present suggest a tight climatic control over hazel’s range limit in Fennoscandia.

Erratum to: Evaluating environmental drivers of Holocene changes in water chemistry and aquatic biota composition at Lake Loitsana, NE Finland

This study presents a detailed analysis of geochemical and biotic proxies in a lake sediment profile to assess the effects of local and regional environmental drivers on the Holocene development of Lake Loitsana, situated in the northern boreal forest of NE Finland. Multi-proxy studies, in particular those that include a detailed plant macrofossil record, from the part of the northern boreal zone of Fennoscandia which has not been affected by treeline fluctuations, are scarce and few of these records date back to the earliest part of the Holocene. A 9-m sediment sequence of gyttja overlying silts representing the last c. 10,700 cal year, allowed for a high-resolution study with emphasis on the early to mid-Holocene lake history. The lacustrine sediments were studied using lithology, loss-on-ignition and C/N ratios, micro- and macro-fossils of aquatic and wetland taxa, diatoms, chironomids and accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dating on terrestrial plant macrofossils. Our study shows that the local development at Loitsana was complex and included a distinct glacial lake phase and subsequent drainage, a history of fluvial input affected by nearby wetland expansion, and lake infilling in an eventual esker-fed shallow lake. Enhanced trophic conditions, due to morphometric eutrophication, are recorded as Glacial Lake Sokli drained and open water conditions became restricted to a relatively small Lake Loitsana depression. pH appears to have been stable throughout the Holocene with a well-buffered lake due to the local carbonatite bedrock (Sokli Carbonatite Massif). The fossil assemblage changes are best explained by a complex mixture of drivers, including water-body conditions (i.e. depth, turbidity and turbulence), rate of sediment input, and the general infilling of the lake, highlighting the need to carefully evaluate the possible influence of such local factors as palaeoenvironmental conditions are reconstructed based on aquatic proxies.

Comparison of quantitative Holocene temperature reconstructions using multiple proxies from a northern boreal lake

Four biotic proxies (plant macrofossils, pollen, chironomids and diatoms) are employed to quantitatively reconstruct variations in mean July air temperatures (Tjul) at Lake Loitsana (northern Finland) during the Holocene. The aim is to evaluate the robustness and biases in these temperature reconstructions and to compare the timing of highest Tjul in the individual reconstructions. The reconstructed Tjul values are evaluated in relation to local-scale/site-specific processes associated with the Holocene lake development at Loitsana as these factors have been shown to significantly influence the fossil assemblages found in the Lake Loitsana sediments. While pollen-based temperatures follow the classical trend of gradually increasing early-Holocene Tjul with a mid-Holocene maximum, the aquatic/wetland assemblages reconstruct higher-than-present Tjul already during the early Holocene, that is, at the peak of summer insolation. The relatively low early-Holocene July temperatures recorded by the pollen are the result of site-specific factors possibly combined with a delayed response of the terrestrial ecosystem compared with the aquatic ecosystem. Our study shows that all reconstructions are influenced at least to some extent by local factors. This finding stresses the need to evaluate quantitatively reconstructed climate values against local lake development and highlights the benefit of using multi-proxy data in Holocene climate reconstructions.

Calibrating aquatic microfossil proxies with regression-tree ensembles: Cross-validation with modern chironomid and diatom data:

We examine the ability of four different regression-tree ensemble techniques (bagging, random forest, rotation forest and boosted tree) in calibration of aquatic microfossil proxies. The methods are tested with six chironomid and diatom datasets, using a variety of cross-validation schemes. We find random forest, rotation forest and the boosted tree to have a similar performance, while bagging performs less well and in several cases has trouble producing continuous predictions. In comparison with commonly used parametric transfer-function approaches (PLS, WA, WA-PLS), we find that in some cases tree-ensemble methods outperform the best-performing transfer-function technique, especially with large datasets characterized by complex taxon responses and abundant noise. However, parametric transfer functions remain competitive with datasets characterized by low number of samples or linear taxon responses. We present an implementation of the rotation forest algorithm in R.