J. Sebastian Leguizamon

Inflation volatility and economic growth in Bolivia: a regional analysis

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the effects of inflation and its volatility on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita for the regions of Bolivia over the period 1989–2011. Results show the existence of a positive relationship with inflation but a negative one with respect to volatility. Moreover, we identify a threshold for volatility and inflation. Our conclusions imply that economic agents are more tolerant to relatively high levels of inflation than to high inflation volatility.

Health insurance subsidies and the expansion of an implicit marriage penalty: a regional comparison of various means-tested programmes

ABSTRACT Any subsidy provision for healthcare premiums, including those embedded in Affordable Care Act (ACA), has the potential to result in some couples facing an implicit penalty when married relative to unmarried. To illustrate such consequences of means-tested subsidies of health insurance premiums, we construct hypothetical households earning different levels of income who are eligible for current subsidies in the USA. and compare the estimated implicit marriage penalty faced by these households to the one faced by low-income households who are eligible for various means-tested programmes (e.g. TANF, WIC, SNAP) for each of the 48 contiguous states. We find that, like very low-income households, marriage can potentially penalize couples who receive health insurance premium subsidies by decreasing their overall disposable income by as much as 14%. We find that the ACA increases the number of households subject to marriage penalties embedded in means-tested programmes for low-income couples. This distortion will exist for any future health insurance premium subsidies that are means tested at the household income level.

Revisiting the Link Between Economic Distress, Race, and Domestic Violence

Male unemployment may decrease the incidence of domestic violence, due to loss of economic power in the relationship, or increase the incidence of domestic violence, due to emotional outbursts fueled by increased stress. We hypothesize that Black men may face a greater loss of expected future earnings after an unemployment shock due to a more unfavorable labor market relative to White men. Consequently, we would expect that Black men would, on net, exhibit a greater reduction (or a smaller increase) in incidences of domestic violence following an employment shock. This study uses mass layoff events reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at the county level (N = 3,377) for the years 2003-2008. Mass layoff events occur when a firm lays off at least 50 workers and are uncorrelated with individual-level characteristics (N = 28,939 events, affecting N = 5,337,481 individuals). Domestic violence data are taken from the National Archive of Criminal Justice and defined as occurring when an accused perpetrator is charged, but not necessarily convicted. We use a multivariate regression model to estimate how differences in the change in reported incidences of domestic violence by race correlate with changes in mass layoffs by race. We control for the poverty rate, real per capita income, percent Black, percent women, and percent of females laid off. The standard errors are clustered at the county level and include county and time dummies to account for regional and time specific trends. We observe that an increase in the number of Blacks subject to a mass layoff event do exert a negative associated influence on domestic violence while layoffs of White men exert a positive influence. Our results shed light on how the influence of economic uncertainty on incidences of domestic violence has been found to be positive in some previous research but negative in other research.

Estimating Implicit Marginal Tax Rates of Welfare Recipients across the US States

This article provides a more accurate estimate of implicit marginal tax rates (IMTRs) faced by low-income households in all fifty states. Complications arising from multiple program participation, regional differences in wage regulations, and cost of living make former generalizations about representative low-income households in a state potentially problematic. Additionally, it is appropriate to account for differences in work requirements by choosing the relevant margin to estimate the IMTR, and these margins vary by state. This article is the first to consider these margins, and, indeed, the author finds significant variation of IMTRs for different states. One of biggest sources of variation is the structure of child care subsidies provisions and cost. However, changes made to initial assumptions causes the estimated rates to vary in unpredictable ways. Given this complicated and unpredictable nature of the variation, researchers should exercise caution when using estimated IMTRs to examine work incentives of welfare programs.