J. Ties Boerma

Trends in access to health services and financial protection in China between 2003 and 2011: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND In the past decade, the Government of China initiated health-care reforms to achieve universal access to health care by 2020. We assessed trends in health-care access and financial protection between 2003, and 2011, nationwide. METHODS We used data from the 2003, 2008, and 2011 National Health Services Survey (NHSS), which used multistage stratified cluster sampling to select 94 of 2859 counties from Chinas 31 provinces and municipalities. The 2011 survey was done with a subset of the NHSS sampling frame to monitor key indicators after the national health-care reforms were announced in 2009. Three sets of indicators were chosen to measure trends in access to coverage, health-care activities, and financial protection. Data were disaggregated by urban or rural residence and by three geographical regions: east, central, and west, and by household income. We examined change in equity across and within regions. FINDINGS The number of households interviewed was 57,023 in 2003, 56,456 in 2008, and 18,822 in 2011. Response rates were 98·3%, 95·0%, and 95·5%, respectively. The number of individuals interviewed was 193,689 in 2003, 177,501 in 2008, and 59,835 in 2011. Between 2003 and 2011, insurance coverage increased from 29·7% (57,526 of 193,689) to 95·7% (57,262 of 59,835, p<0·0001). The average share of inpatient costs reimbursed from insurance increased from 14·4 (13·7-15·1) in 2003 to 46·9 (44·7-49·1) in 2011 (p<0·0001). Hospital delivery rates averaged 95·8% (1219 of 1272) in 2011. Hospital admissions increased 2·5 times to 8·8% (5288 of 59,835, p<0·0001) in 2011 from 3·6% (6981 of 193,689) in 2003. 12·9% of households (2425 of 18,800) had catastrophic health expenses in 2011. Caesarean section rates increased from 19·2% (736 of 3835) to 36·3% (443 of 1221, p<0·0001) between 2003 and 2011. INTERPRETATION Remarkable increases in insurance coverage and inpatient reimbursement were accompanied by increased use and coverage of health care. Important advances have been made in achieving equal access to services and insurance coverage across and within regions. However, these increases have not been accompanied by reductions in catastrophic health expenses. With the achievement of basic health-services coverage, future challenges include stronger risk protection, and greater efficiency and quality of care. FUNDING None.

From people to places: focusing AIDS prevention efforts where it matters most.

Objectives: To develop and implement a method to identify and characterize places where people meet new sexual partners and to assess HIV prevention program coverage in those places. Methods: In three townships (populations 60 000–100 000 each) and one business district (population < 20 000) in South Africa, interviewers asked over 250 informants per area to identify public sites where people meet new sexual partners. All reported sites were visited and mapped. A knowledgeable person onsite was interviewed about the site and its patrons. Individuals socializing at sites were interviewed about their sexual behavior. Results: More than 200 sites in each township and 64 sites in the central business district were identified and visited. The male to female ratio among site patrons was approximately 2:1. In each area, men and women socializing at sites reported high rates of new sexual partner acquisition and low condom use. Almost half of the 3085 men and 1564 women interviewed while socializing reported having a new sexual partner in the last 4 weeks. A third reported meeting a new partner at the site of the interview. Commercial sex was rare in the townships but available at 31% of central business district sites. Fewer than 15% of township and only 20% of business district sites had condoms. Conclusion: The PLACE method successfully identified sites where people with high rates of new sexual partnerships can be reached for prevention programs. Sexual networks in these areas are extensive, diffuse, and characterized by high rates of new partnership formation and concurrency with little acknowledged commercial sex.

HIV infection does not disproportionately affect the poorer in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background:Wealthier populations do better than poorer ones on most measures of health status, including nutrition, morbidity and mortality, and healthcare utilization. Objectives:This study examines the association between household wealth status and HIV serostatus to identify what characteristics and behaviours are associated with HIV infection, and the role of confounding factors such as place of residence and other risk factors. Methods:Data are from eight national surveys in sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Tanzania, Lesotho, Malawi, and Uganda) conducted during 2003–2005. Dried blood spot samples were collected and tested for HIV, following internationally accepted ethical standards and laboratory procedures. The association between household wealth (measured by an index based on household ownership of durable assets and other amenities) and HIV serostatus is examined using both descriptive and multivariate statistical methods. Results:In all eight countries, adults in the wealthiest quintiles have a higher prevalence of HIV than those in the poorer quintiles. Prevalence increases monotonically with wealth in most cases. Similarly for cohabiting couples, the likelihood that one or both partners is HIV infected increases with wealth. The positive association between wealth and HIV prevalence is only partly explained by an association of wealth with other underlying factors, such as place of residence and education, and by differences in sexual behaviour, such as multiple sex partners, condom use, and male circumcision. Conclusion:In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV prevalence does not exhibit the same pattern of association with poverty as most other diseases. HIV programmes should also focus on the wealthier segments of the population.

How changes in coverage affect equity in maternal and child health interventions in 35 Countdown to 2015 countries: an analysis of national surveys

BACKGROUND Achievement of global health goals will require assessment of progress not only nationally but also for population subgroups. We aimed to assess how the magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in health changes in relation to different rates of national progress in coverage of interventions for the health of mothers and children. METHODS We assessed coverage in low-income and middle-income countries for which two Demographic Health Surveys or Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys were available. We calculated changes in overall coverage of skilled birth attendants, measles vaccination, and a composite coverage index, and examined coverage of a newly introduced intervention, use of insecticide-treated bednets by children. We stratified coverage data according to asset-based wealth quintiles, and calculated relative and absolute indices of inequality. We adjusted correlation analyses for time between surveys and baseline coverage levels. FINDINGS We included 35 countries with surveys done an average of 9·1 years apart. Pro-rich inequalities were very prevalent. We noted increased coverage of skilled birth attendants, measles vaccination, and the composite index in most countries from the first to the second survey, while inequalities were reduced. Rapid changes in overall coverage were associated with improved equity. These findings were not due to a capping effect associated with limited scope for improvement in rich households. For use of insecticide-treated bednets, coverage was high for the richest households, but countries making rapid progress did almost as well in reaching the poorest groups. National increases in coverage were primarily driven by how rapidly coverage increased in the poorest quintiles. INTERPRETATION Equity should be accounted for when planning the scaling up of interventions and assessing national progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; World Bank; Governments of Australia, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Sweden, and UK.

Transmission of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa and effect of elimination of unsafe injections

During the past year, a group has argued that unsafe injections are a major if not the main mode of HIV-1 transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. We review the main arguments used to question the epidemiological interpretations on the lead role of unsafe sex in HIV-1 transmission, and conclude there is no compelling evidence that unsafe injections are a predominant mode of HIV-1 transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Conversely, though there is a clear need to eliminate all unsafe injections, epidemiological evidence indicates that sexual transmission continues to be by far the major mode of spread of HIV-1 in the region. Increased efforts are needed to reduce sexual transmission of HIV-1.

Measuring impact in the Millennium Development Goal era and beyond: a new approach to large-scale effectiveness evaluations

Evaluation of large-scale programmes and initiatives aimed at improvement of health in countries of low and middle income needs a new approach. Traditional designs, which compare areas with and without a given programme, are no longer relevant at a time when many programmes are being scaled up in virtually every district in the world. We propose an evolution in evaluation design, a national platform approach that: uses the district as the unit of design and analysis; is based on continuous monitoring of different levels of indicators; gathers additional data before, during, and after the period to be assessed by multiple methods; uses several analytical techniques to deal with various data gaps and biases; and includes interim and summative evaluation analyses. This new approach will promote country ownership, transparency, and donor coordination while providing a rigorous comparison of the cost-effectiveness of different scale-up approaches.

Health statistics now: are we making the right investments?

Increases in international funding for health have been accompanied by accelerating demand for more and better statistics, which are needed to track performance and ensure accountability. Worldwide interest in the monitoring of development, as exemplified in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), generates pressure for high-quality and timely data for reporting on country progress. This rapid escalation of demand has exposed major gaps in the supply of health statistics for developing countries but also provides major opportunities to increase the supply and use of sound health statistics. First, the emphasis on monitoring and evaluation is leading to proliferation of indicators and excessive reporting requirements, and needs to be refocused on systematic investments in data generation and analysis. Second, the risk of inadequate or poorly targeted investments can be kept to a minimum by understanding the causes of poor availability of health statistics, including lack of accurate measurement instruments, application of suboptimum methods of data collection, and inadequate use of methods and analyses to produce comparable estimates. Third, the preoccupation with MDGs does not take into account the rapid health transition, which implies that health statistics should systematically include a much wider array of health issues from acute infectious diseases to chronic non-communicable diseases and injuries, disaggregated by socioeconomic position. Fourth, the growing number of national household surveys, which are the main source of most population health statistics, need to be streamlined into cohesive and comprehensive country health survey programmes. Now is the time to accelerate the production and use of accurate, complete, and timely health statistics for decision-making by investing in country health information systems that should be based on an efficient and effective mix of standardised methods of data collection and analysis that meet country and international needs.

HIV prevalence and trends in sub-Saharan Africa: no decline and large subregional differences

BACKGROUND Expansion of HIV surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa is leading to downward adjustments to the size of the AIDS epidemic. However, only analysis of surveillance data from the same populations over time can provide insight into trends of HIV prevalence. We have used data from the same antenatal clinics to document recent empirical trends. METHODS We collated data from antenatal clinics on HIV prevalence between 1997 and 2003. Data were obtained from 140?000 pregnant women attending more than 300 antenatal clinics in 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, long-term trend data are available for 57 urban areas and provinces. FINDINGS Median HIV prevalence in 148 antenatal clinic sites in southern Africa increased from 21.3% (IQR 11.5-28.2%) in 1997/98 to 23.8% (15.6-29.2%) in 2002. At more than half the sites (58%) an increase of at least one-tenth was noted, but at a fifth of sites, prevalence dropped by at least one-tenth. In eastern Africa, median HIV prevalence decreased from 12.9% (7.0-16.9%) in 1997/98 to 8.5% (5.3-13.0%) in 2002, with prevalence rising in four (7%) sites, but falling at 25 (43%) sites. In west Africa, median HIV prevalence was 3.5% (2.2-5.9%) and 3.2% (2.3-6.1%) for 1997/98 and 2002, respectively, with reductions and increases in prevalence being noted in equal proportions. The long-term trends in urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa show a similar pattern, with increasing evidence of stabilisation during the past 2-3 years compared with the previous decade. INTERPRETATION Evidence from surveillance of mostly urban antenatal clinic attendees indicates that the growth in the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has levelled off since the late 1990s but only eastern Africa shows a decline in HIV prevalence. Very large differences persist between subregions. Workers planning a response to the AIDS epidemic must take more careful consideration of these variations to allow locally appropriate responses to the epidemic.

The Global Impact of Scaling-Up HIV/AIDS Prevention Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

A strong, global commitment to expanded prevention programs targeted at sexual transmission and transmission among injecting drug users, started now, could avert 28 million new HIV infections between 2005 and 2015. This figure is more than half of the new infections that might otherwise occur during that period in 125 low- and middle-income countries. Although preventing these new infections would require investing about U.S.

Estimating Incidence from Prevalence in Generalised HIV Epidemics: Methods and Validation

122 billion over this period, it would reduce future needs for treatment and care. Our analysis suggests that it will cost about U.S.