J van Zyl

Labour-Related Structural Trends in South African Maize Production

The substitution of capital goods, including new technology, for land and labour has played an important role and has influenced the structure of Sout African agriculture. Farm labour-related trends in the summer rainfall grain-producing area of South Africa are considered. The amount of labour used, the remuneration of labour, the substitution of capital for labour and productivity trends are analyzed. Growth rates were obtained by fitting exponential functions with time as independent variable. The decline in the number of farm employees per 1000 hectares under cultivation since 1970 probably resulted from mechanization and thus capital- labour substitution in maize production, especially in harvesting. Tax concessions on new capital improvements, the subsidization of agriculture in general and the increasing rate of urbanization contributed to this trend. The scarcity of capital relative to unskilled labour, which has been reinforced by policy measures favouring capital intensity (capital formation has increased by 4.0% per annum between 1950 and 1980, compared with an increase of 0. 71% per annum in the number of farm employees in the same period); this implies that corrective policy changes are required to improve the present distorted situation. This will enable the commercial agricultural sector of South Africa to play a more meaningful role in the socio-economic development of the whole subcontinent.

Food security and structural adjustment: Empirical evidence on the food price dilemma in Southern Africa

This article considers effects of price on food security and the food equation in the developing areas of South Africa. Firstly, the food (or hunger) equation is examined in more detail. Secondly, thefood price dilemma is analysed using empirical data obtained elsewhere in sub‐Saharan Africa. Thirdly, the situation in the developing areas of South Africa is examined. Empirical evidence in sub‐Saharan and Southern Africa accentuates the skewness and concentration in the market participation profile of rural households with respect to especially staples. Supply response to higher prices in these areas is also limited. These findings place the food price dilemma on centre stage in Southern Africa.

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DEMAND FOR MAIZE IN SOUTH AFRICA

In a dynamic economic situation, decisions concerning price, promotion, distribution, production and product policy must be made almost continually. Ample knowledge and information, amongst others, of various demand factors are necessary for the composition and maintenance of an efficient marketing strategy. Only then is there a thorough base for business control, strategic planning and forecasting. In this study it was endeavoured to determine some characteristics of the demand for maize in South Africa. Several important coefficients, for example price elasticity, income elasticity and cross-elasticity of the total demand for maize as well as that of individual components thereof, were calculated. These coefficients should provide useful and almost indispensable information concerning the effects of price changes, and mutual substitution and complementarity.

THE EFFECT OF DEBT BURDEN, INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION ON THE SURVIVAL OF FARMING ENTERPRISES: A CASE STUDY IN THE WESTERN TRANSVAAL AND THE NORTH-WESTERN BUSHVELD

In this study the effect of varying yield levels (drought), structural input price inflation, interest rates and initial solvency position (as influenced by debt burden) on typical farming enterprises in the Western Transvaal and the North-western Transvaal Bushveld is determined. Initial solvency situation, interest rates and structural inflation have a significant effect on financial results of farming enterprises. Analysis of variance shows that these three factors and their effects are interdependent. The effect and influence of each on survival are therefore influenced by the levels of the other factors. Consequently all three factors must be influenced simultaneously in order to obtain positive results with regard to the survival of farming enterprises in the Western Transvaal and the North-western Transvaal Bushveld.

Employment and growth in South Africa: An agricultural perspective

South African agriculture is analysed with respect to labour‐related structural trends, the impact of a change in agricultural production on production in certain selected Individual sectors and its relative potential with regard to direct and indirect industry multipliers. The paper concludes with some policy aspects that stem from the different analyses.

THE INFLUENCE OF DROUGHT AND GENERAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURE: A MACRO-ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT In this study the effects of drought and the weakening parity of agriculture owing to structural inflation are analysed using macro-information. Analyses of key variables over time are followed by multiple regression analyses with total farm debt as a dependent variable. The drought hit the gross income from field crops the hardest; the value of field crop production was on average 45,3 per cent per annum lower for the period 1982–85 than predicted by the long-term trend. On the other hand, deviations in horticultural and animal production were on average smaller than 8 per cent per annum. Multiple regression shows that drought, general economic conditions and the effects of structural inflation influence the debt burden of the farming sector. Real gross domestic product, interest rates, the ratio of input to output prices and the drought index all had a significant influence on the real debt burden of agriculture in the period 1970–85. The influence of these factors was also, without exception, ...

ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND THE BOTTOM LINE: HOW MUCH OF AGRICULTURE'S PROFITS IS DUE TO CHANGES IN PRICE, HOW MUCH TO PRODUCTIVITY?

Abstract Conventional financial analysis shows that profit comes from the difference behveen revenues and costs. A sector can generate profit growth through productivity growth or price over-recovery, or both. The course that is taken, however, has important implications for its longer-term competitive positioning. The South African agricultural sector showed a steady decline in its performance since 1973. The decline is attributed to the cost-price squeeze; incrcases in productivity did not compensate for decreases in price recovery. The decline reached its lowest in 1983 when the growth in productivity overtook the negative effect of the terms of trade.

Agricultural efficiency in South Africa's former homelands: Measurement and implications

This article uses data envelopment analysis to estimate agricultural efficiency in the former homelands of KaNgwane, Lebowa and Venda. Farm‐level survey data are used to estimate total production efficiency, and a distinction is drawn between technical and scale efficiency. Efficiency levels for the three ‘homelands’ are compared for the normal year of 1990/1, and then the effect of the 1992 drought year on efficiency is determined. Relatively large efficiency gains can be achieved in the homelands by redistributing more land to some farmers, in order to increase the size of farms. Those farmers who are efficient in years of normal rainfall suffer greater efficiency losses in years of drought. In particular, they incur debts which will affect their credit position in the future. The implications are importantfor the design of Farmer Support Programmes in these areas.

South African Agriculture in the 1980s

Abstract During the 1980s South Africa witnessed a number of political changes and some political and economic instability. The new constitution in 1983 gave birth to the tricameral parliamentary system and the concepts of “own and general affairs”. The violent uprisings during 1985/86 led to a state of emergency and the intensification of economic sanctions in the mid-1980s. The agricultural sector itself was not in any way excluded from the “ups” and “downs” of change which took place during the 1980s into the 1990s.

Flexibility in input substitution: A case study of South African agriculture

Differences in elasticities of substitution between agricultural inputs over time in South African agricultural production were measured. The translog functional specification was used for empirical estimation of factor share equations derived from cost data. This was done by using duality that exists between the production function and the cost function along the expansion path. South African agriculture exhibits less flexibility in dealing with input price variation, especially machinery, than US agriculture. The relative rigidity of the South African agricultural production process may at least partially be attributed to present competitive structures, and has important implications for development policy, especially with regard to the success obtained with policy measures favouring relative input subsidisation over the short term.