J.W.G.M. van der Pas

ISA implementation and uncertainty: A literature review and expert elicitation study

Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time.

Intelligent speed assistance for serious speeders: The results of the Dutch Speedlock trial

One of the most important policy questions regarding Intelligent Speed Assistance (ISA) is whether or not it should be implemented, and if so how. In 2010 the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment decided to perform a field operational test to investigate the possibility of using ISA as a penalty system for serious speed offenders. This paper presents the results of this research, focusing on the effects on road safety. The results show that the two types of ISA systems that were tested have a huge effect on driver behavior and have the potential to improve road safety by reducing the level of speeding, mean speed, as well as the standard deviation of speed. However, the users show little sign of learning after the systems are turned off. Moreover, the serious offenders frequently use the emergency button to override the system which might seriously affect the efficacy of the system.

Evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches: an analogy with medicine

This paper discusses the evaluation of new infrastructure planning approaches. These new planning approaches have been put forward in response to the challenges of deep uncertainty about the future. However, these approaches up till now have seen little real word applications. One important reason for this lack of application is that the efficacy of these approaches has not been established yet. In turn, this is due to the problem that there is no agreed upon method for proving the efficacy of a new planning approach. In this paper, we will draw an analogy to medical research and development in order to outline a methodology for establishing the efficacy of new planning approaches. We discuss how the well established methodology for evaluation new medical treatments can be adapted to evaluating new planning approaches. We illustrate the resulting evaluation methodology by outlining an evaluation strategy for a specific new planning approach. It is concluded that the well established methodology from medicine can successfully be used to inform the evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches

Developing robust Intelligent Speed Adaptation policies within a multi-stakeholder context: An application of exploratory modeling

Each year traffic in Europe claims more than 40,000 fatalities, of which one third are due to inappropriate speed. This makes increasing traffic safety and reducing speeding important policy objectives for public policymakers. A possible measure to help achieve these objectives is implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA), an in-vehicle device that assists a driver in maintaining the appropriate speed. Past research in this field focuses on estimating ISAs safety benefits, as well as the impact of ISA on other criteria, such as emissions, throughput, and travel time. Coming up with a robust policy, however, also requires insights into the trade-offs the various stakeholders make with respect to these criteria. In this paper, we show how exploratory modeling in a multi-criteria multi-stakeholder context can support developing robust policies for implementing ISA.

Developing robust intelligent speed Adaptation policies within a multi-stakeholder context

Each year traffic in Europe claims more than 40,000 fatalities, of which one third are due to inappropriate speed. This makes increasing traffic safety and reducing speeding important policy objectives for public policymakers. A possible measure to help achieve these objectives is implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA), an in-vehicle device that assists a driver in maintaining the appropriate speed. Past research in this field focuses on estimating ISAs safety benefits, as well as the impact of ISA on other criteria, such as emissions, throughput, and travel time. Coming up with a robust policy, however, also requires insights into the trade-offs the various stakeholders make with respect to these criteria. In this paper, we show how exploratory modeling in a multi-criteria multi-stakeholder context can support developing robust policies for implementing ISA.