J. W. Hotchkiss

A survey of horse owners in Great Britain regarding horses in their care. Part 1: Horse demographic characteristics and management.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY Information is scarce as to how horses are kept and managed in the general horse population of Great Britain. OBJECTIVES To characterise the demographics of horses in Great Britain and assess their care (with particular reference to the respiratory system). METHODS Horse owners were surveyed using a self-administered postal questionnaire. These owners were selected randomly, following geographical stratification, using 2-stage cluster sampling of veterinary practices and their clients. RESULTS The overall response proportion to the survey was 68.2%. An investigation of nonresponse bias detected minimal differences between responders and nonresponders. A summary of the demographic characteristics, feeding and management of horses in a sample of the general population of Great Britain is presented. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE Horses are kept under a great variety of conditions with some potentially exposed to high concentrations of organic dusts associated with stabling. This information is relevant to their health and welfare.

A survey of horse owners in Great Britain regarding horses in their care. Part 2: Risk factors for recurrent airway obstruction.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY Recurrent airway obstruction (RAO) is a commonly encountered respiratory condition of horses. Despite this, the epidemiology of this predominately manageable and reversible disease in Great Britain has been largely ignored. OBJECTIVES To estimate the prevalence of RAO in the general horse population of Great Britain and to investigate possible risk factors for RAO associated with management or early life. METHODS Horse owners were surveyed using a self-administered postal questionnaire that contained a risk-screening questionnaire (RSQ) designed to identify horses with RAO. These owners were randomly selected, following geographical stratification, using 2-stage cluster sampling of veterinary practices and their clients. Multilevel, multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate risk factors for RAO in the selected horse population. RESULTS The estimated true prevalence of RAO in the selected horse population was 14.0% (95%CI 10.7-17.4%). Risk factors for RAO identified in a general horse management logistic regression model included increasing age and exposure to an urbanised environment. Recurrent airway obstruction has long been associated with mature horses while the association with an urbanised environment could be related to different management practices in these areas or possibly air pollution could be involved. The second model associated exposure to hay and respiratory infection in early life with a horse having RAO in later life. Challenges to the respiratory system in early life may be involved in the development of this disease. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE Recurrent airway obstruction is a significant health problem in the horse population of Great Britain. This form of epidemiological investigation highlights potential risk factors for the disease.

Trends in adult cardiovascular disease risk factors and their socio-economic patterning in the Scottish population 1995-2008: cross-sectional surveys.

Objectives To examine secular and socio-economic changes in cardiovascular disease risk factor prevalences in the Scottish population. This could contribute to a better understanding of why the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland has recently stalled along with a widening of socio-economic inequalities. Design Four Scottish Health Surveys 1995, 1998, 2003 and 2008 (6190, 6656, 5497 and 4202 respondents, respectively, aged 25–64 years) were used to examine gender-stratified, age-standardised prevalences of smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, discretionary salt use and self-reported diabetes or hypertension. Prevalences were determined according to education and social class. Inequalities were assessed using the slope index of inequality, and time trends were determined using linear regression. Results There were moderate secular declines in the prevalence of smoking, excess alcohol consumption and physical inactivity. Smoking prevalence declined between 1995 and 2008 from 33.4% (95% CI 31.8% to 35.0%) to 29.9% (27.9% to 31.8%) for men and from 36.1% (34.5% to 37.8%) to 27.4% (25.5% to 29.3%) for women. Adverse trends in prevalence were noted for self-reported diabetes and hypertension. Over the four surveys, the diabetes prevalence increased from 1.9% (1.4% to 2.4%) to 3.6% (2.8% to 4.4%) for men and from 1.7% (1.2% to 2.1%) to 3.0% (2.3% to 3.7%) for women. Socio-economic inequalities were evident for almost all risk factors, irrespective of the measure used. These social gradients appeared to be maintained over the four surveys. An exception was self-reported diabetes where, although inequalities were small, the gradient increased over time. Alcohol consumption was unique in consistently showing an inverse gradient, especially for women. Conclusions There has been only a moderate decline in behavioural cardiovascular risk factor prevalences since 1995, with increases in self-reported diabetes and hypertension. Adverse socio-economic gradients have remained unchanged. These findings could help explain the recent stagnation in coronary heart disease mortalities and persistence of related inequalities.

The relationship between body size and mortality in the linked Scottish Health Surveys: cross-sectional surveys with follow-up

Objective:To investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist–hip ratio (WHR) and all-cause mortality or cause-specific mortality.Design:Cross-sectional surveys linked to hospital admissions and death records.Subjects:In total, 20 117 adults (aged 18–86 years) from a nationally representative sample of the Scottish population.Measurements:Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause, or cause-specific, mortality. The three anthropometric measurements BMI, WC and WHR were the main variables of interest. The following were adjustment variables: age, gender, smoking status, alcohol consumption, survey year, social class and area of deprivation.Results:BMI-defined obesity (⩾30 kg m−2) was not associated with increased risk of mortality (HR=0.93; 95% confidence interval=0.80–1.08), whereas the overweight category (25–<30 kg m−2) was associated with a decreased risk (0.80; 0.70–0.91). In contrast, the HR for a high WC (men⩾102 cm, women⩾88 cm) was 1.17 (1.02–1.34) and a high WHR (men⩾1, women⩾0.85) was 1.34 (1.16–1.55). There was an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality associated with BMI-defined obesity, a high WC and a high WHR categories; the HR estimates for these were 1.36 (1.05–1.77), 1.41 (1.11–1.79) and 1.44 (1.12–1.85), respectively. A low BMI (<18.5 kg m−2) was associated with elevated HR for all-cause mortality (2.66; 1.97–3.60), for chronic respiratory disease mortality (3.17; 1.39–7.21) and for acute respiratory disease mortality (11.68; 5.01–27.21). This pattern was repeated for WC but not for WHR.Conclusions:It might be prudent not to use BMI as the sole measure to summarize body size. The alternatives WC and WHR may more clearly define the health risks associated with excess body fat accumulation. The lack of association between elevated BMI and mortality may reflect the secular decline in CVD mortality.

Explaining trends in Scottish coronary heart disease mortality between 2000 and 2010 using IMPACTSEC model: retrospective analysis using routine data

Objective To quantify the contributions of prevention and treatment to the trends in mortality due to coronary heart disease in Scotland. Design Retrospective analysis using IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model, to apportion the recent decline in coronary heart disease mortality to changes in major cardiovascular risk factors and to increases in more than 40 treatments in nine non-overlapping groups of patients. Setting Scotland. Participants All adults aged 25 years or over, stratified by sex, age group, and fifths of Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Main outcome measure Deaths prevented or postponed. Results 5770 fewer deaths from coronary heart disease occurred in 2010 than would be expected if the 2000 mortality rates had persisted (8042 rather than 13 813). This reflected a 43% fall in coronary heart disease mortality rates (from 262 to 148 deaths per 100 000). Improved treatments accounted for approximately 43% (95% confidence interval 33% to 61%) of the fall in mortality, and this benefit was evenly distributed across deprivation fifths. Notable treatment contributions came from primary prevention for hypercholesterolaemia (13%), secondary prevention drugs (11%), and chronic angina treatments (7%). Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 39% (28% to 49%) of the fall in mortality (44% in the most deprived fifth compared with only 36% in the most affluent fifth). Reductions in systolic blood pressure contributed more than one third (37%) of the decline in mortality, with no socioeconomic patterning. Smaller contributions came from falls in total cholesterol (9%), smoking (4%), and inactivity (2%). However, increases in obesity and diabetes offset some of these benefits, potentially increasing mortality by 4% and 8% respectively. Diabetes showed strong socioeconomic patterning (12% increase in the most deprived fifth compared with 5% for the most affluent fifth). Conclusions Increases in medical treatments accounted for almost half of the large recent decline in mortality due to coronary heart disease in Scotland. Furthermore, the Scottish National Health Service seems to have delivered these benefits equitably. However, the substantial contributions from population falls in blood pressure and other risk factors were diminished by adverse trends in obesity and diabetes. Additional population-wide interventions are urgently needed to reduce coronary heart disease mortality and inequalities in future decades.

Current and future uses of breath analysis as a diagnostic tool

The analysis of exhaled breath is a potentially useful method for application in veterinary diagnostics. Breath samples can be easily collected from animals by means of a face mask or collection chamber with minimal disturbance to the animal. After the administration of a 13C-labelled compound the recovery of 13C in breath can be used to investigate gastrointestinal and digestive functions. Exhaled hydrogen can be used to assess orocaecal transit time and malabsorption, and exhaled nitric oxide, carbon monoxide and pentane can be used to assess oxidative stress and inflammation. The analysis of compounds dissolved in the aqueous phase of breath (the exhaled breath condensate) can be used to assess airway inflammation. This review summarises the current status of breath analysis in veterinary medicine, and analyses its potential for assessing animal health and disease.

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles

Objective Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. Methods CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. Results Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25–84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8–7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1–3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2–5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8–9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

Effects of changes to the stable environment on the exhalation of ethane, carbon monoxide and hydrogen peroxide by horses with respiratory inflammation.

The aim of this study was to assess the effects of changes to the stable environment on exhaled markers of respiratory inflammation in six horses with clinical histories of recurrent airway obstruction. The horses were maintained for two weeks under conventional stable management (straw bedding and hay) and for two weeks on a reduced-dust regimen (paper bedding and ensiled grass), in a crossover study design. Exhaled ethane and carbon monoxide (CO) and exhaled breath condensate hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) were measured every three days under each regimen. The presence of clinical signs of airway inflammation (nasal discharge and cough) was monitored daily. The reduced-dust regimen was associated with fewer clinical signs of airway inflammation than the conventional regimen. Exhaled ethane and CO were significantly lower on the reduced-dust regimen and these markers were correlated with clinical signs of respiratory inflammation, but exhaled H2O2 was not affected by the management regimen.

Adiposity has differing associations with incident coronary heart disease and mortality in the Scottish population: cross-sectional surveys with follow-up

Objective:Investigation of the association of excess adiposity with three different outcomes: all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and incident CHD.Design:Cross-sectional surveys linked to hospital admissions and death records.Subjects:19 329 adults (aged 18–86 years) from a representative sample of the Scottish population.Measurements:Gender-stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CHD mortality and incident CHD. Separate models incorporating the anthropometric measurements body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist–hip ratio (WHR) were created adjusted for age, year of survey, smoking status and alcohol consumption.Results:For both genders, BMI-defined obesity (⩾30 kg m−2) was not associated with either an increased risk of all-cause mortality or CHD mortality. However, there was an increased risk of incident CHD among the obese men (hazard ratio (HR)=1.78; 95% confidence interval=1.37–2.31) and obese women (HR=1.93; 95% confidence interval=1.44–2.59). There was a similar pattern for WC with regard to the three outcomes; for incident CHD, the HR=1.70 (1.35–2.14) for men and 1.71 (1.28–2.29) for women in the highest WC category (men ⩾102 cm, women ⩾88 cm), synonymous with abdominal obesity. For men, the highest category of WHR (⩾1.0) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.29; 1.04–1.60) and incident CHD (1.55; 1.19–2.01). Among women with a high WHR (⩾0.85) there was an increased risk of all outcomes: all-cause mortality (1.56; 1.26–1.94), CHD mortality (2.49; 1.36–4.56) and incident CHD (1.76; 1.31–2.38).Conclusions:In this study excess adiposity was associated with an increased risk of incident CHD but not necessarily death. One possibility is that modern medical intervention has contributed to improved survival of first CHD events. The future health burden of increased obesity levels may manifest as an increase in the prevalence of individuals living with CHD and its consequences.

Trends in cardiovascular disease biomarkers and their socioeconomic patterning among adults in the Scottish population 1995 to 2009: cross-sectional surveys

Objectives To examine secular and socioeconomic changes in biological cardiovascular disease risk factor and biomarker prevalences in the Scottish population. This could contribute to an understanding of why the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland has recently stalled along with persistence of associated socioeconomic inequalities. Design Cross-sectional surveys. Setting Scotland. Participants Scottish Health Surveys: 1995, 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2009 (6190, 6656, 5497, 4202 and 4964 respondents, respectively, aged 25–64 years). Primary outcome measures Gender-stratified, age-standardised prevalences of obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol blood concentration as well as elevated fibrinogen and C reactive protein concentrations according to education and social class groupings. Inequalities were assessed using the slope index of inequality, and time trends were assessed using linear regression. Results The prevalence of obesity, including central obesity, increased between 1995 and 2009 among men and women, irrespective of socioeconomic position. In 2009, the prevalence of obesity (defined by body mass index) was 29.8% (95% CI 27.9% to 31.7%) for men and 28.2% (26.3% to 30.2%) for women. The proportion of individuals with hypertension remained relatively unchanged between 1995 and 2008/2009, while the prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia declined in men from 79.6% (78.1% to 81.1%) to 63.8% (59.9% to 67.8%) and in women from 74.1% (72.6% to 75.7%) to 66.3% (62.6% to 70.0%). Socioeconomic inequalities persisted over time among men and women for most of the biomarkers and were particularly striking for the anthropometric measures when stratified by education. Conclusions If there are to be further declines in coronary heart disease mortality and reduction in associated inequalities, then there needs to be a favourable step change in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors. This may require radical population-wide interventions.