J.W. van der Steeg

Are patient characteristics associated with the accuracy of hysterosalpingography in diagnosing tubal pathology? An individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Conventional meta-analysis has estimated the sensitivity and specificity of hysterosalpingography (HSG) to be 65% and 83%. The impact of patient characteristics on the accuracy of HSG is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess by individual patient data meta-analysis whether the accuracy of HSG is associated with different patient characteristics. METHODS We approached authors of primary studies reporting on the accuracy of HSG using findings at laparoscopy as the reference. We assessed whether patient characteristics such as female age, duration of subfertility and a clinical history without risk factors for tubal pathology were associated with the accuracy of HSG, using a random intercept logistic regression model. RESULTS We acquired data of seven primary studies containing data of 4521 women. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of HSG were 53% and 87% for any tubal pathology and 46% and 95% for bilateral tubal pathology. In women without risk factors, the sensitivity of HSG was 38% for any tubal pathology, compared with 61% in women with risk factors (P = 0.005). For bilateral tubal pathology, these rates were 13% versus 47% (P = 0.01). For bilateral tubal pathology, the sensitivity of HSG decreased with age [factor 0.93 per year (P = 0.05)]. The specificity of HSG was very stable across all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS The accuracy of HSG in detecting tubal pathology was similar in all subgroups, except for women without risk factors in whom sensitivity was lower, possibly due to false-positive results at laparoscopy. HSG is a useful tubal patency screening test for all infertile couples.

Chlamydia antibody testing and diagnosing tubal pathology in subfertile women: an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The Chlamydia IgG antibody test (CAT) shows considerable variations in reported estimates of test accuracy, partly because of the use of different assays and cut-off values. The aim of this study was to reassess the accuracy of CAT in diagnosing tubal pathology by individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis for three different CAT assays. METHODS We approached authors of primary studies that used micro-immunofluorescence tests (MIF), immunofluorescence tests (IF) or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests (ELISA). Using the obtained IPD, we performed pooled receiver operator characteristics analysis and logistic regression analysis with a random effects model to compare the three assays. Tubal pathology was defined as either any tubal obstruction or bilateral tubal obstruction. RESULTS We acquired data of 14 primary studies containing data of 6191 women, of which data of 3453 women were available for analysis. The areas under the curve for ELISA, IF and MIF were 0.64, 0.65 and 0.75, respectively (P-value < 0.001) for any tubal pathology and 0.66, 0.66 and 0.77, respectively (P-value = 0.01) for bilateral tubal pathology. CONCLUSIONS In Chlamydia antibody testing, MIF is superior in the assessment of tubal pathology. In the initial screen for tubal pathology MIF should therefore be the test of first choice.

Chlamydia trachomatis IgG seropositivity is associated with lower natural conception rates in ovulatory subfertile women without visible tubal pathology

BACKGROUND The relation between Chlamydia trachomatis infection and subsequent tubal damage is widely recognized. As such, C. trachomatis antibody (CAT) testing can be used to triage women for immediate tubal testing with hysterosalpingography (HSG) or laparoscopy. However, once invasive tubal testing has ruled out tubal pathology, CAT serology status is ignored, as its clinical significance is currently unknown. This study aimed to determine whether positive CAT serology is associated with lower spontaneous pregnancy rates in women in whom HSG and/or diagnostic laparoscopy showed no visible tubal pathology. METHODS We studied ovulatory women in whom HSG or laparoscopy showed patent tubes. Women were tested for C. trachomatis immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies with either micro-immunofluorescence (MIF) or an ELISA. CAT serology was positive if the MIF titre was ≥ 1:32 or if the ELISA index was >1.1. The proportion of couples pregnant without treatment was estimated at 12 months of follow-up. Time to pregnancy was considered censored at the date of the last contact when the woman was not pregnant or at the start of treatment. The association between CAT positivity and an ongoing pregnancy was evaluated with Cox regression analyses. RESULTS Of the 1882 included women without visible tubal pathology, 338 (18%) had a treatment-independent pregnancy within 1 year [estimated cumulative pregnancy rate 31%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 27-35%]. Because of differential censoring after 9 months of follow-up, regression analyses were limited to the first 9 months after tubal testing. Positive C. trachomatis IgG serology was associated with a statistically significant 33% lower probability of an ongoing pregnancy [adjusted fecundity rate ratio 0.66 (95% CI 0.49-0.89)]. CONCLUSIONS Even after HSG or laparoscopy has shown no visible tubal pathology, subfertile women with a positive CAT have lower pregnancy chances than CAT negative women. After external validation, this finding could be incorporated into existing prognostic models.

The capacity of hysterosalpingography and laparoscopy to predict natural conception

BACKGROUND Laparoscopy has been claimed to be superior to hysterosalpingography (HSG) in predicting fertility. Whether this conclusion is applicable to a general subfertile population can be questioned as data in support of this claim were collected in third line centres. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic capacity of HSG and laparoscopy in a general subfertile population. METHODS In 38 centres, we prospectively studied a cohort of patients referred for subfertility between 2002 and 2004, who underwent HSG and/or laparoscopy as part of their subfertility work-up. Follow-up started immediately after tubal testing and ended 12 months thereafter. Time to pregnancy was censored at the of date last contact, when the woman was not pregnant or at the start of treatment. Kaplan-Meier curves for the occurrence of spontaneous intrauterine pregnancy were constructed for patients without tubal pathology, for those with unilateral tubal pathology and for patients with bilateral tubal pathology at HSG or laparoscopy. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to calculate fecundity rate ratios (FRRs) to express associations between tubal pathology and the occurrence of an intrauterine pregnancy. RESULTS Of the 3301 included patients, 2043 underwent HSG only, 747 underwent diagnostic laparoscopy only and 511 underwent both. At HSG, 322 (13%) patients showed unilateral tubal pathology and 135 (5%) showed bilateral tubal pathology. At laparoscopy, 167 (13%) showed unilateral tubal pathology and 215 (17%) showed bilateral tubal pathology. Multivariable analysis resulted in FRRs of 0.81 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59-1.1] for unilateral, and 0.28 (95% CI: 0.13-0.59) for bilateral, tubal pathology at HSG. The FRRs at laparoscopy were 0.85 (95% CI: 0.47-1.52) for unilateral, and 0.24 (95% CI: 0.11-0.54) for bilateral, tubal pathology. CONCLUSIONS Patients with unilateral tubal pathology at HSG and laparoscopy had a moderate reduction in pregnancy chances, whereas those with bilateral tubal pathology at HSG and laparoscopy had a severe reduction in pregnancy chances. This reduction was similar for HSG and laparoscopy, suggesting that HSG and laparoscopy have a comparable predictive capacity for natural conception.

Tailored expectant management: risk factors for non-adherence

INTRODUCTION Prediction models for spontaneous pregnancy are useful tools to prevent overtreatment, complications and costs in subfertile couples with a good prognosis. The use of such models and subsequent expectant management in couples with a good prognosis are recommended in the Dutch fertility guidelines, but not fully implemented. In this study, we assess risk factors for non-adherence to tailored expectant management. METHODS Couples with mild male, unexplained and cervical subfertility were included in this multicentre prospective cohort study. If the probability of spontaneous pregnancy within 12 months was ≥40%, expectant management for 6-12 months was advised. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify patient and clinical characteristics associated with non-adherence to tailored expectant management. RESULTS We included 3021 couples of whom 1130 (38%) had a ≥40% probability of a spontaneous pregnancy. Follow-up was available for 1020 (90%) couples of whom 214 (21%) had started treatment between 6 and 12 months and 153 (15%) within 6 months. A higher female age and a longer duration of subfertility were associated with treatment within 6 months (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.1; OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1-1.8). A fertility doctor in a clinical team reduced the risk of treatment within 6 months (OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.39-0.99). CONCLUSIONS In couples with a favorable prognosis for spontaneous pregnancy, there is considerable overtreatment, especially if the woman is older and duration of the subfertility is longer. The presence of a fertility doctor in a clinic may prevent early treatment.

Integration of patient characteristics and the results of Chlamydia antibody testing and hysterosalpingography in the diagnosis of tubal pathology: an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Tubal patency tests are routinely performed in the diagnostic work-up of subfertile patients, but it is unknown whether these diagnostic tests add value beyond the information obtained by medical history taking and findings at physical examination. We used individual patient data meta-analysis to assess this question. METHODS We approached authors of primary studies for data sets containing information on patient characteristics and results from tubal patency tests, such as Chlamydia antibody test (CAT), hysterosalpingography (HSG) and laparoscopy. We used logistic regression to create models that predict tubal pathology from medical history and physical examination alone, as well as models in which the results of tubal patency tests are integrated in the patient characteristics model. Laparoscopy was considered to be the reference test. RESULTS We obtained data from four studies reporting on 4883 women. The duration of subfertility, number of previous pregnancies and a history of previous pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), pelvic surgery or Chlamydia infection qualified for the patient characteristics model. This model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.65]. For any tubal pathology, the addition of HSG significantly improved the predictive performance to an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.73-0.76) (P < 0.001). For bilateral tubal pathology, the addition of both CAT and HSG increased the predictive performance to an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.79). CONCLUSIONS In the work-up for subfertile couples, the combination of patient characteristics with CAT and HSG results gives the best diagnostic performance for the diagnosis of bilateral tubal pathology.

IUI in Male Subfertility: Are We Able to Select the Proper Patients?

There is at this time no indication as to which semen parameters from the fertility work-up discriminate between couples with male subfertility who will and will not benefit from intrauterine insemination (IUI). This study evaluated the predictive capacity of semen parameters (both pre- and post-wash) and antisperm antibodies (ASA) obtained during the fertility workup on IUI outcome in couples with male subfertility in a retrospective cohort study. It included 290 couples, who underwent 722 IUI cycles. The overall ongoing pregnancy rate was 9% per cycle. Model I, with female age, duration of subfertility, secondary subfertility, the presence of anovulation, cervical hostility and cycle number had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.59. Adding the presence of ASA to this model improved the AUC to 0.65 (model II). Further addition of the post-wash total motile count (TMC) to the model with ASA (model III) improved the AUC to 0.67. Using the models to exclude couples from IUI due to low expected pregnancy rates would increase the pregnancy rate to 11% per cycle with model I, and to 14% per cycle for model II and for model III. In conclusion, in the selection of patients with male subfertility for IUI, the use of prediction models including ASA can increase the efficiency of IUI.