Jacek Prokop

Process of dominant-cartel formation

Abstract This paper considers the process of cartel formation in the industries characterized by collusive price-leadership. In contrast to the preceding literature, the focus of the analysis is shifted from the problem of cartel stability towards the process of forming a stable cartel. Two models of the dominant-cartel-formation process are proposed: a sequential-, and simultaneous-moves game of firms. The sequential-moves game shows a possibility of creating a stable cartel when the firms have commitment power to refuse the cartel membership. However, when the firms have no commitment power to stay in the competitive fringe, the simultaneous-moves game suggests that it may be impossible to form a stable dominant cartel.

A game theoretical approach to the international debt overhang

We consider an international financial problem called debt overhang, by which we mean a situation where a sovereign country has borrowed money from foreign banks and has been unable to fulfill the scheduled repayments for some period. The problem is formulated as a noncooperative game withn lender banks as players where each decides either to sell its loan exposure to the debtor country at the present price of debt on the secondary market, or to wait and keep its exposure. This game has many pure and mixed strategy Nash equilibria. We show, however, that in any Nash equilibrium, the resulting secondary market price remains almost the same as the present price for a large number of banks. We also obtain the comparative statics result that in a mixed strategy equilibrium, a bank with a smaller loan exposure has a greater tendency to sell than one with a larger loan exposure. We discuss the implications of these results for the functioning of the secondary market and the resolution of debt overhang.

Dynamics of International Debt Overhang with Two Lender Banks

This paper presents a dynamic formalization of the behavior of creditor banks in the presence of the secondary market for debts. We formulate the problem as an infinite horizon game with two banks as players where each bank decides in every period either to sell its loan exposure to the debtor country at the present secondary market price, or to wait and keep its exposure to the next period. We show that there exist three types of subgame perfect equilibria with the property called the time continuation. We consider the relationship between our equilibria and those of the Kaneko-Prokop (1991) one-period approach to the same problem and show that their one-period approach does not lose much of the dynamic nature of the problem. In every equilibrium, each bank waits in every period with high probability, and the probability is close to 1 when the interest rate is small. If the price function of debt is approximated by some homogeneous function for large values of debt, then the central equilibrium probability becomes stationary in the long run. The stationary probability is relatively high as long as the interest rate is low. These results are interpreted as a tendency for the problem of debt overhang to remain almost unchanged.

Organized debt buybacks: No cure for free riding?

Abstract This paper discusses the possibility of resolving the international debt overhang problem through an ‘organized buyback’ at the secondary market prices suggested by Peter Kenen. We focus on one aspect of the feasibility: the elimination of the free-rider problem of creditors in the presence of the secondary market for sovereign debt. The analysis shows that there are equilibria in which the ‘organized buyback’ can be blocked by the free riding among banks.

Duration of debt overhang with two lender banks

This paper discusses the duration of the debt overhang with two lender banks. We model the problem as an infinite horizon game with two banks as players. In every period, each bank decides either to sell its loan exposure to the debtor country at the present secondary market price, or to wait and keep its exposure to the next period. Under the assumption of homogeneous price function and short length of periods, we show that the expected duration in the equilibrium becomes large when the degree of homogeneity is low, and tends to 1n 2/ 1n beta^2 (beta is the annual interest factor) as the degree of homogeneity approaches zero. This result implies that the lower bound for the duration is 4 years. We interpret it as a tendency for the debt overhang to last for a somewhat long time.

R&D Activities in Oligopoly and Social Welfare

Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of R&D activities in an oligopoly on consumer surplus and social welfare. We use a two-stage model to analyze the behavior of duopolists at the research level, and in the final-product market, under the assumption of linear and quadratic cost functions. Three options for firm competition are considered: 1) Cournot competition at both stages; 2) cooperation at the R&D stage and Cournot competition in the final-product market; and 3) cooperation at both stages. Numerical simulations for various levels of R&D spillovers are conducted to analyze the welfare effects of firm decisions. We conclude that for high levels of technological spillovers, total welfare is highest when firms engage in cooperation at the R&D stage, and compete in the final product market, independent of the shape of cost functions. However, the functional form of production costs has a qualitative impact on welfare when firms fully compete.

Controversy over the Economic Justifications for Patent Protection

The objective of this paper is to show the necessity of reviving the debate on the economic justifications for patent protection. On the one hand, we see the need for the assessment of the overall welfare consequences of the existing systems of patent protection, and on the other hand, we believe that major changes to the patent law should be considered. Critical review of the discussion on patents shows that the weaknesses of many arguments for patent protection, as well as the resulting adverse effects of the patent laws have been known for a long time. The analysis of the strategic behavior of firms shows that patent protection has often been misused and may negatively affect the total welfare.

Conditional versus unconditional bidding in takeovers

Abstract This paper explores the properties of multiple conditional takeover bids, and compares them with those of unconditional ones. If the initial takeover bid is unsuccessful, a raider is allowed to make a new tender offer to secure the required number of shares. Numerical analysis shows that the raiders expected profit from a conditional tender offer is higher than his expected profit from an unconditional bid, but still much lower than is predicted by static theories. However, the probability of a shareholder tendering his share is higher under the unconditional rather than conditional bidding. As the time between tender offers goes to zero, we show analytically that the expected profit from engaging in a conditional takeover bidding goes to zero similarly to the case of multiple unconditional offers.

R&D spillovers and cartelization of industries with differentiated products

The objective of this article is to investigate the impact of research and development (R&D) spillovers on cartelization of industries characterized by differentiated products. For simplicity, we focus on the duopoly market in which firms compete according to the Stackelberg leadership model. Numerical analysis shows that as long as products offered on the market are at least slightly differentiated, it is beneficial for firms to cooperate at the R&D stage, and form a cartel at the final product market. The threat of cartelizing industry is not present only under fully homogenous goods’ competition. But, since the vast majority of product markets trade in differentiated goods, tightening cooperation in R&D generates a serious threat of industry cartelization. Thus, significant antitrust issues emerge.

Cartels and patents, and R&D expenditures of companies

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of R&D cartel, full industry cartel, and patents on process innovation of companies, and consumer surplus, and total welfare. The reference scenario is here the Cournot rivalry without patent protection of inventions. In this paper, the quadratic costs of production of goods and R&D investments are assumed. The results of modelling and numerical analyses allowed to state that R&D cooperation (in the form of R&D cartel) is more effective and socially preferred instrument to stimulate innovation in the industry than interfirm rivalry motivated by patents. However, in industries characterized by relatively weak or medium knowledge spillovers, the most effective tool to enhance innovation is interfirm rivalry without patents. The latter constitutes one more argument against patents.