Jack M. Guralnik

Lower-Extremity Function in Persons over the Age of 70 Years as a Predictor of Subsequent Disability

BACKGROUND Functional assessment is an important part of the evaluation of elderly persons. We conducted this study to determine whether objective measures of physical function can predict subsequent disability in older persons. METHODS This prospective cohort study included men and women 71 years of age or older who were living in the community, who reported no disability in the activities of daily living, and who reported that they were able to walk one-half mile (0.8 km) and climb stairs without assistance. The subjects completed a short battery of physical-performance tests and participated in a follow-up interview four years later. The tests included an assessment of standing balance, a timed 8-ft (2.4-m) walk at a normal pace, and a timed test of five repetitions of rising from a chair and sitting down. RESULTS Among the 1122 subjects who were not disabled at base line and who participated in the four-year follow-up, lower scores on the base-line performance tests were associated with a statistically significant, graduated increase in the frequency of disability in the activities of daily living and mobility-related disability at follow-up. After adjustment for age, sex, and the presence of chronic disease, those with the lowest scores on the performance tests were 4.2 to 4.9 times as likely to have disability at four years as those with the highest performance scores, and those with intermediate performance scores were 1.6 to 1.8 times as likely to have disability. CONCLUSIONS Among nondisabled older persons living in the community, objective measures of lower-extremity function were highly predictive of subsequent disability. Measures of physical performance may identify older persons with a preclinical stage of disability who may benefit from interventions to prevent the development of frank disability.

Gait Speed and Survival in Older Adults

CONTEXT Survival estimates help individualize goals of care for geriatric patients, but life tables fail to account for the great variability in survival. Physical performance measures, such as gait speed, might help account for variability, allowing clinicians to make more individualized estimates. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the relationship between gait speed and survival. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Pooled analysis of 9 cohort studies (collected between 1986 and 2000), using individual data from 34,485 community-dwelling older adults aged 65 years or older with baseline gait speed data, followed up for 6 to 21 years. Participants were a mean (SD) age of 73.5 (5.9) years; 59.6%, women; and 79.8%, white; and had a mean (SD) gait speed of 0.92 (0.27) m/s. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Survival rates and life expectancy. RESULTS There were 17,528 deaths; the overall 5-year survival rate was 84.8% (confidence interval [CI], 79.6%-88.8%) and 10-year survival rate was 59.7% (95% CI, 46.5%-70.6%). Gait speed was associated with survival in all studies (pooled hazard ratio per 0.1 m/s, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.87-0.90; P < .001). Survival increased across the full range of gait speeds, with significant increments per 0.1 m/s. At age 75, predicted 10-year survival across the range of gait speeds ranged from 19% to 87% in men and from 35% to 91% in women. Predicted survival based on age, sex, and gait speed was as accurate as predicted based on age, sex, use of mobility aids, and self-reported function or as age, sex, chronic conditions, smoking history, blood pressure, body mass index, and hospitalization. CONCLUSION In this pooled analysis of individual data from 9 selected cohorts, gait speed was associated with survival in older adults.

Physical Performance Measures in the Clinical Setting

OBJECTIVES:  To assess the ability of gait speed alone and a three‐item lower extremity performance battery to predict 12‐month rates of hospitalization, decline in health, and decline in function in primary care settings serving older adults.

Designing randomized, controlled trials aimed at preventing or delaying functional decline and disability in frail, older persons: a consensus report.

The discovery of effective interventions to prevent or delay disability in older persons is a public health priority. Most likely to benefit from such interventions are frail individuals who are not yet disabled and those with early disability who are at high risk of progression. In spite of this frail older persons have often been excluded from research on the assumption that they would not tolerate testing or benefit from treatment. The Interventions on Frailty Working Group developed recommendations to screen, recruit, evaluate, and retain frail older persons in clinical trials.

Disability in Older Adults: Evidence Regarding Significance, Etiology, and Risk

OBJECTIVES: This article synthesizes and assesses current evidence about the importance of physical disability to older adults. It then considers the applications of research findings to clinical geriatrics practice.

Subsystems contributing to the decline in ability to walk: Bridging the gap between epidemiology and geriatric practice in the InCHIANTI study

BACKGROUND: Older patients are often referred to geriatricians because of complaints of progressive difficulties in walking. The diagnostic and therapeutic approach to these patients is complex. Multiple physiologic subsystems may influence the ability to walk, and no standard criteria are currently available to establish whether these subsystems are functioning within the normal range. To address this lack of knowledge we conducted the InCHIANTI study.

Documented head injury in early adulthood and risk of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias

Background: The association between antecedent head injury and AD is inconsistent. Objective: To examine the association between early adult head injury, as documented by military hospital records, and dementia in late life; and to evaluate the interaction between head injury and APOE ε4 as risk factors for dementia. Methods: The study had a population-based prospective historical cohort design. It included men who were World War II Navy and Marine veterans, and were hospitalized during their military service with a diagnosis of either a nonpenetrating head injury or another unrelated condition. In 1996 to 1997, military medical records were abstracted to document the occurrence and details of closed head injury. The entire sample was then evaluated for dementia and AD using a multistage procedure. There were 548 veterans with head injury and 1228 without head injury who completed all assigned stages of the study. The authors estimated risk of dementia, specifically AD, using proportional hazards models. Results: Both moderate head injury (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.32; CI = 1.04 to 5.17) and severe head injury (HR = 4.51; CI = 1.77 to 11.47) were associated with increased risk of AD. Results were similar for dementia in general. The results for mild head injury were inconclusive. When the authors stratified by the number of APOE ε4 alleles, they observed a nonsignificant trend toward a stronger association between AD and head injury in men with more ε4 alleles. Conclusions: Moderate and severe head injuries in young men may be associated with increased risk of AD and other dementias in late life. However, the authors cannot exclude the possibility that other unmeasured factors may be influencing this association.

Effect of Structured Physical Activity on Prevention of Major Mobility Disability in Older Adults: The LIFE Study Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE In older adults reduced mobility is common and is an independent risk factor for morbidity, hospitalization, disability, and mortality. Limited evidence suggests that physical activity may help prevent mobility disability; however, there are no definitive clinical trials examining whether physical activity prevents or delays mobility disability. OBJECTIVE To test the hypothesis that a long-term structured physical activity program is more effective than a health education program (also referred to as a successful aging program) in reducing the risk of major mobility disability. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) study was a multicenter, randomized trial that enrolled participants between February 2010 and December 2011, who participated for an average of 2.6 years. Follow-up ended in December 2013. Outcome assessors were blinded to the intervention assignment. Participants were recruited from urban, suburban, and rural communities at 8 centers throughout the United States. We randomized a volunteer sample of 1635 sedentary men and women aged 70 to 89 years who had physical limitations, defined as a score on the Short Physical Performance Battery of 9 or below, but were able to walk 400 m. INTERVENTIONS Participants were randomized to a structured, moderate-intensity physical activity program (n = 818) conducted in a center (twice/wk) and at home (3-4 times/wk) that included aerobic, resistance, and flexibility training activities or to a health education program (n = 817) consisting of workshops on topics relevant to older adults and upper extremity stretching exercises. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was major mobility disability objectively defined by loss of ability to walk 400 m. RESULTS Incident major mobility disability occurred in 30.1% (246 participants) of the physical activity group and 35.5% (290 participants) of the health education group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.82 [95% CI, 0.69-0.98], P = .03).Persistent mobility disability was experienced by 120 participants (14.7%) in the physical activity group and 162 participants (19.8%) in the health education group (HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.57-0.91]; P = .006). Serious adverse events were reported by 404 participants (49.4%) in the physical activity group and 373 participants (45.7%) in the health education group (risk ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.98-1.20]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE A structured, moderate-intensity physical activity program compared with a health education program reduced major mobility disability over 2.6 years among older adults at risk for disability. These findings suggest mobility benefit from such a program in vulnerable older adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01072500.

Educational status and active life expectancy among older blacks and whites.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS Persons of low socioeconomic status are known to have reduced life expectancy. In a study of the relation of socioeconomic status to disability-free or active life expectancy among older persons, we analyzed prospectively gathered data on 2219 blacks and 1838 whites who were 65 years of age or older in the Piedmont region of North Carolina. We defined disability as the inability to perform independently one or more basic functional activities such as walking, bathing, dressing, eating, and using the toilet. For subgroups defined by sex, race, and education, statistical models were used to estimate, for persons at each year of age, the probability of transition from not being disabled or being disabled at base line to not being disabled, being disabled, or having died one year later. These transition probabilities were then entered into increment-decrement life tables to generate estimates of total, active, and disabled life expectancy (with total life expectancy equal to active life expectancy plus disabled life expectancy). RESULTS Sixty-five-year-old black men had a lower total life expectancy (11.4 years) and active life expectancy (10 years) than white men (total life expectancy, 12.6 years; active life expectancy, 11.2 years), although the differences were reduced after we controlled for education. The estimates for 65-year-old black women (total life expectancy, 18.7 years; active life expectancy, 15.9 years) were similar to those for white women. Black men and women 75 years old and older had higher values for total life expectancy and active life expectancy than whites, and the differences were larger after stratification for education. Education had a substantially stronger relation to total life expectancy and active life expectancy than did race. At the age of 65, those with 12 or more years of education had an active life expectancy that was 2.4 to 3.9 years longer than the values for those with less education in all the four subgroups defined by sex and race. Overall, the subgroups with longer total life expectancy and active life expectancy also lived more years with a disability. CONCLUSIONS Among older blacks and whites, the level of education, a measure of socioeconomic status, has a greater effect than race on total life expectancy and active life expectancy.

Handgrip strength and cause-specific and total mortality in older disabled women: Exploring the mechanism

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between muscle strength and total and cause‐specific mortality and the plausible contributing factors to this association, such as presence of diseases commonly underlying mortality, inflammation, nutritional deficiency, physical inactivity, smoking, and depression.