Jackie Ross

A Randomized Trial of Progesterone in Women with Recurrent Miscarriages

BACKGROUND Progesterone is essential for the maintenance of pregnancy. However, whether progesterone supplementation in the first trimester of pregnancy would increase the rate of live births among women with a history of unexplained recurrent miscarriages is uncertain. METHODS We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial to investigate whether treatment with progesterone would increase the rates of live births and newborn survival among women with unexplained recurrent miscarriage. We randomly assigned women with recurrent miscarriages to receive twice-daily vaginal suppositories containing either 400 mg of micronized progesterone or matched placebo from a time soon after a positive urinary pregnancy test (and no later than 6 weeks of gestation) through 12 weeks of gestation. The primary outcome was live birth after 24 weeks of gestation. RESULTS A total of 1568 women were assessed for eligibility, and 836 of these women who conceived naturally within 1 year and remained willing to participate in the trial were randomly assigned to receive either progesterone (404 women) or placebo (432 women). The follow-up rate for the primary outcome was 98.8% (826 of 836 women). In an intention-to-treat analysis, the rate of live births was 65.8% (262 of 398 women) in the progesterone group and 63.3% (271 of 428 women) in the placebo group (relative rate, 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 1.15; rate difference, 2.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.0 to 9.0). There were no significant between-group differences in the rate of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS Progesterone therapy in the first trimester of pregnancy did not result in a significantly higher rate of live births among women with a history of unexplained recurrent miscarriages. (Funded by the United Kingdom National Institute of Health Research; PROMISE Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN92644181.).

Salpingotomy versus salpingectomy in women with tubal pregnancy (ESEP study): an open-label, multicentre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Tubal ectopic pregnancy can be surgically treated by salpingectomy, in which the affected Fallopian tube is removed, or salpingotomy, in which the tube is preserved. Despite potentially increased risks of persistent trophoblast and repeat ectopic pregnancy, salpingotomy is often preferred over salpingectomy because the preservation of both tubes is assumed to offer favourable fertility prospects, although little evidence exists to support this assumption. We aimed to assess whether salpingotomy would improve rates of ongoing pregnancy by natural conception compared with salpingectomy. METHODS In this open-label, multicentre, international, randomised controlled trial, women aged 18 years and older with a laparoscopically confirmed tubal pregnancy and a healthy contralateral tube were randomly assigned via a central internet-based randomisation program to receive salpingotomy or salpingectomy. The primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy by natural conception. Differences in cumulative ongoing pregnancy rates were expressed as a fecundity rate ratio with 95% CI, calculated by Cox proportional-hazards analysis with a time horizon of 36 months. Secondary outcomes were persistent trophoblast and repeat ectopic pregnancy (expressed as relative risks [RRs] with 95% CIs) and ongoing pregnancy after ovulation induction, intrauterine insemination, or IVF. The researchers who collected data for fertility outcomes were masked to the assigned intervention, but patients and the investigators who analysed the data were not. All endpoints were analysed by intention to treat. We also did a (non-prespecified) meta-analysis that included the findings from the present trial. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN37002267. FINDINGS 446 women were randomly assigned between Sept 24, 2004, and Nov 29, 2011, with 215 allocated to salpingotomy and 231 to salpingectomy. Follow-up was discontinued on Feb 1, 2013. The cumulative ongoing pregnancy rate was 60·7% after salpingotomy and 56·2% after salpingectomy (fecundity rate ratio 1·06, 95% CI 0·81-1·38; log-rank p=0·678). Persistent trophoblast occurred more frequently in the salpingotomy group than in the salpingectomy group (14 [7%] vs 1 [<1%]; RR 15·0, 2·0-113·4). Repeat ectopic pregnancy occurred in 18 women (8%) in the salpingotomy group and 12 (5%) women in the salpingectomy group (RR 1·6, 0·8-3·3). The number of ongoing pregnancies after ovulation induction, intrauterine insemination, or IVF did not differ significantly between the groups. 43 (20%) women in the salpingotomy group were converted to salpingectomy during the initial surgery because of persistent tubal bleeding. Our meta-analysis, which included our own results and those of one other study, substantiated the results of the trial. INTERPRETATION In women with a tubal pregnancy and a healthy contralateral tube, salpingotomy does not significantly improve fertility prospects compared with salpingectomy. FUNDING Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW), Region Västra Götaland Health & Medical Care Committee.

Natural history of early first‐trimester pregnancies implanted in Cesarean scars

To describe the ultrasound findings and natural history of pregnancies implanted within or on Cesarean section scars in the first trimester of pregnancy.

Ultrasonographic prediction of early miscarriage

BACKGROUND The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the value of maternal history and ultrasound scan findings at 6-10 weeks for predicting early miscarriage. METHODS Embryonic crown-rump length (CRL), heart rate (HR), gestational sac diameter (GSD) and yolk sac diameter (YSD) were compared in two groups of women with singleton pregnancies attending an early pregnancy unit. In the first group the initial scan demonstrated a live embryo but in a subsequent visit the scan showed a dead embryo, complete or incomplete miscarriage. In the second group with a live embryo there was subsequent live birth of a normal neonate. RESULTS There were 729 pregnancies with miscarriage and 4698 with normal outcome. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that in the prediction of miscarriage the risk was higher in women of African racial origin [odds ratio (OR) 1.62], cigarette smokers (OR 1.91) and those with vaginal bleeding (OR 2.03) and increased with maternal age (OR 1.05) and YSD (OR 1.88) and was inversely related to CRL (OR 0.79), HR (OR 0.96) and GSD (OR 0.84). At false-positive rate of 30%, the detection rate of miscarriage in screening by vaginal bleeding was 45%, 53% by the addition of maternal history factors and 85.7% by the addition of ultrasound findings. CONCLUSIONS In early pregnancy a prediction of miscarriage can be provided by a combination of maternal characteristics and ultrasound findings and the estimated risk can be used to rationalize follow-up. Our multivariate model requires prospective evaluation in a new sample population.

Normal ranges of embryonic length, embryonic heart rate, gestational sac diameter and yolk sac diameter at 6-10 weeks.

Objectives: To construct normal ranges for embryonic crown-rump length (CRL), heart rate (HR), gestational sac diameter (GSD) and yolk sac diameter (YSD) at 6–10 weeks of gestation. Methods: We examined 4,698 singleton pregnancies with ultrasound measurements of CRL, HR, GSD and YSD at 6–10 weeks and CRL at 11–13 weeks resulting in the live birth after 36 weeks of phenotypically normal neonates with birth weight above the 5th centile. Gestational age was derived from CRL at the 11- to 13-week scan using the formula of Robinson and Fleming. Regression analysis was used to establish normal ranges of CRL, fetal HR, GSD and YSD with gestation, and fetal HR, GSD and YSD with CRL. Results: At 6–10 weeks there were significant quadratic associations between CRL, GSD, YSD and gestation and between HR, GSD, YSD and CRL, and a cubic association between HR and gestation. The estimated gestation from CRL was the same as that of Robinson and Fleming for a CRL of 10.2–36.5 mm, but the formula of Robinson and Fleming underestimated the gestation by 1 day for a CRL 7.4–10.2 mm and this increased to 9 days for a CRL of 1 mm. Conclusion: This study established normal ranges for early pregnancy biometry.

Introduction of a single visit protocol in the management of selected patients with pregnancy of unknown location: a prospective study

Please cite this paper as: Cordina M, Schramm‐Gajraj K, Ross J, Lautman K, Jurkovic D. Introduction of a single visit protocol in the management of selected patients with pregnancy of unknown location: a prospective study. BJOG 2011;118:693–697.

Surgical treatment of Cesarean scar ectopic pregnancy: efficacy and safety of ultrasound-guided suction curettage.

To assess the efficacy of ultrasound‐guided suction curettage for management of pregnancies implanted into the lower uterine segment Cesarean section scar.

PROMISE : first-trimester progesterone therapy in women with a history of unexplained recurrent miscarriages - a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, international multicentre trial and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Progesterone is essential to maintain a healthy pregnancy. Guidance from the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists and a Cochrane review called for a definitive trial to test whether or not progesterone therapy in the first trimester could reduce the risk of miscarriage in women with a history of unexplained recurrent miscarriage (RM). The PROMISE trial was conducted to answer this question. A concurrent cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted. DESIGN AND SETTING A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, international multicentre study, with economic evaluation, conducted in hospital settings across the UK (36 sites) and in the Netherlands (nine sites). PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS Women with unexplained RM (three or more first-trimester losses), aged between 18 and 39 years at randomisation, conceiving naturally and giving informed consent, received either micronised progesterone (Utrogestan(®), Besins Healthcare) at a dose of 400 mg (two vaginal capsules of 200 mg) or placebo vaginal capsules twice daily, administered vaginally from soon after a positive urinary pregnancy test (and no later than 6 weeks of gestation) until 12 completed weeks of gestation (or earlier if the pregnancy ended before 12 weeks). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Live birth beyond 24 completed weeks of gestation (primary outcome), clinical pregnancy at 6-8 weeks, ongoing pregnancy at 12 weeks, miscarriage, gestation at delivery, neonatal survival at 28 days of life, congenital abnormalities and resource use. METHODS Participants were randomised after confirmation of pregnancy. Randomisation was performed online via a secure internet facility. Data were collected on four occasions of outcome assessment after randomisation, up to 28 days after birth. RESULTS A total of 1568 participants were screened for eligibility. Of the 836 women randomised between 2010 and 2013, 404 received progesterone and 432 received placebo. The baseline data (age, body mass index, maternal ethnicity, smoking status and parity) of the participants were comparable in the two arms of the trial. The follow-up rate to primary outcome was 826 out of 836 (98.8%). The live birth rate in the progesterone group was 65.8% (262/398) and in the placebo group it was 63.3% (271/428), giving a relative risk of 1.04 (95% confidence interval 0.94 to 1.15; p = 0.45). There was no evidence of a significant difference between the groups for any of the secondary outcomes. Economic analysis suggested a favourable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for decision-making but wide confidence intervals indicated a high level of uncertainty in the health benefits. Additional sensitivity analysis suggested the probability that progesterone would fall within the National Institute for Health and Care Excellences threshold of £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year as between 0.7145 and 0.7341. CONCLUSIONS There is no evidence that first-trimester progesterone therapy improves outcomes in women with a history of unexplained RM. LIMITATIONS This study did not explore the effect of treatment with other progesterone preparations or treatment during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. FUTURE WORK Future research could explore the efficacy of progesterone supplementation administered during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle in women attempting natural conception despite a history of RM. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN92644181; EudraCT 2009-011208-42; Research Ethics Committee 09/H1208/44. FUNDING This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 41. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Coelocentesis: a study of short‐term safety

Coelocentesis was performed in 20 singleton pregnancies at 6–10 weeks of gestation and 2–13 days before planned termination. The control group consisted of 100 women who were also undergoing planned termination and were matched with the study group for maternal age and gestation. During the follow‐up period, there were five miscarriages (25 per cent) after coelocentesis and five in the control group (5 per cent) (χ2=6·68; P<0·01). The high risk of miscarriage following coelocentesis makes the technique unsuitable for early prenatal diagnosis.

Clinical significance of first-trimester chorionic bumps: a matched case-control study

To determine the clinical significance of a chorionic bump diagnosed by ultrasound in women attending an early pregnancy unit in a teaching hospital.