Jacob A. Bikker

A new approach to measuring competition in the loan markets of the euro area

This article is the first that applies a new measure of competition, the Boone indicator, to the banking industry. This approach is able to measure competition of bank market segments, such as the loan market, whereas many well-known measures of competition can consider the entire banking market only. Like most other model-based measures, this approach ignores differences in bank product quality and design, as well as the attractiveness of innovations. We measure competition on the lending markets in the five major EU countries as well as, for comparison, the UK, the US and Japan. Our findings indicate that over the period 1994–2004 the US had the most competitive loan market, whereas overall loan markets in Germany and Spain were among the best competitive in the EU. The Netherlands occupied a more intermediate position, whereas in Italy competition declined significantly over time. The French, Japanese and UK loan markets were generally less competitive.

Competition and efficiency in the Dutch life insurance industry

The lack of available prices in the Dutch life insurance industry makes competition an elusive concept that defies direct observation. Therefore, this article investigates competition by analysing several factors which may affect the competitive nature of a market and various indirect measurement approaches. After discussing various supply and demand factors which may constitute a so-called tight oligopoly, we establish the existence of scale economies and the importance of cost X-inefficiency, since severe competition would force firms to exploit available scale economies and to reduce X-inefficiencies. Both scale economies and X-inefficiencies turn out to be substantial, although more or less comparable to those found for insurers in other countries and to other financial institutions. Further, we apply the Boone indicator, a novel approach to measuring the effects of competition. This indicator points to limited competition in comparison to other sectors in the Netherlands. Further investigations of submarkets should reveal where policy measures in order to promote competition might be appropriate. †The views expressed in this article are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of CPB or DNB

Pension Funds’ Asset Allocation and Participant Age: A Test of the Life-Cycle Model

This paper examines the impact of participants’ age distribution on the asset allocation of Dutch pension funds, using a unique data set of pension fund investment plans for 2007. Theory predicts a negative effect of age on (strategic) equity exposures. We observe that pension funds do indeed take the average age of their participants into account. However, the average age of active participants has been incorporated much more strongly in investment behaviour than the average ages of retired or dormant participants. This suggests that both employers and employees, who dominate pension fund boards, tend to show more interest in active participants. A one-year higher average age in active participants leads to a significant and robust reduction in the strategic equity exposure by around 0.5 percentage point. Larger pension funds show a stronger age-equity exposure effect than smaller pension funds. This age-dependent asset allocation of pension funds aligns with the original life-cycle model by which young workers should invest more in equity than older workers because of their larger human capital. Other factors, viz. fund size, funding ratio, and average pension wealth of participants, influence equity exposure positively and significantly, in line with theory. Pension plan type and pension fund type have no significant impact.

An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade

The traditional gravity model has been applied many times to international trade flows, especially in order to analyze trade creation and trade diversion. However, there are two fundamental objections to the model: it cannot describe substitutions between flows and it lacks a cogent theoretical foundation. A newly developed model, the Extended Gravity Model (EGM), overcomes these objections. The model shares characteristics of the models of Bergstrand (1985), Andersen and Van Wincoop (2003), and Redding and Scott (2003). An empirical test on a world-wide sample of 19 thousand 2005 trade flows strongly rejects the gravity model in favour of the EGM. The empirical analysis also shows that the gravity model widely overestimates the influence of the determinants of international trade, which is due to strong substitution between trade flows, reducing the initial (gravity model) effects. Substitution determines both trade creation and trade diversion. The EGM encompasses several models originating in regional economics and can be applied usefully to a wide set of subjects.

A Regional Supply and Demand Model for Inpatient Hospital Care

In this paper a regional supply and demand model for hospital admissions is developed which can be used for policymaking and planning purposes. It incorporates spatial factors such as travel-time costs into a model of market equilibrium in which waiting time acts implicitly as the equilibrating device. By distinguishing travel-time costs or distances it is shown that both supply and demand within local markets strongly influence admissions in a way which cannot be observed on aggregated levels: the tension between supply and demand is cushioned by a strong redistribution of patients. The model encompasses several well-known models for patient flows and hospital utilization originating in regional economics.

Gravity Models of Trade-based Money Laundering

Several attempts have been made in the economics literature to measure money laundering. However, the adequacy of these models is difficult to assess, as money laundering takes place secretly and, hence, goes unobserved. An exception is trade-based money laundering (TBML), a special form of trade abuse that has been discovered only recently. TBML refers to criminal proceeds that are transferred around the world using fake invoices that under- or overvalue imports and exports. This article is a first attempt to test well-known prototype models proposed by Walker and Unger to predict illicit money laundering flows and to apply traditional gravity models borrowed from international trade theory. To do so, we use a dataset of Zdanowicz of TBML flows from the US to 199 countries. Our test rejects the specifications of the Walker and Unger prototype models, at least for TBML. The traditional gravity model that we present here can indeed explain TBML flows worldwide in a plausible manner. An important determinant is licit trade, the mass in which TBML is hidden. Furthermore, our results suggest that criminals use TBML in order to escape the stricter anti moneylaundering regulations of financial markets.

Composite leading indicators of underlying inflation for seven EU countries

This paper presents short- and long-term composite leading indicators (CLIs) of underlying inflation for seven EU countries, namely Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. CLI and CPI reference series are calculated in terms of both growth rates and in deviations from its trend. The composite leading indicators are based on leading basic series, such as sources of inflation, series containing information on inflation expectations and prices of intermediate goods and services. Neftcis decision rule approach has been applied to transfer movements in the CLIs into a measure of the probability of a cyclical turning point, which enables the screening out of false turning point predictions. Finally, CLIs have been used to analyse the international coherence of price cycles. The forecast performance of CLIs of inflation over the past raises hope that this forecast instrument can be useful in predicting future price movements. Copyright

Is There an Optimal Pension Fund Size? A Scale-Economy Analysis of Administrative and Investment Costs

This paper investigates scale economies and the optimal scale of pension funds, estimating different cost functions with varying assumptions about the shape of the underlying average cost function: Ushaped versus monotonically declining. Using unique data for Dutch pension funds over 1992-2009, we find that unused scale economies for both administrative and investment activities are indeed large and concave, that is, huge for small pension funds and decreasing with pension fund size. For administrative activities, we observe a clear optimal scale of around 40 thousand participants during 1992-2000 (pointing to a U shaped average cost function), which increases sharply in subsequent years to size above the largest pension fund, pointing to monotonically decreasing average costs. As regards investment costs we observe an optimal scale for total assets of around € 690 million and larger, without a clear shift over time and without diseconomies of scale for larger funds. The results are very sensitive to the correct functional form of the cost model. Consolidation among especially smaller and medium-sized pension funds would increase cost efficiency.

Operating costs of pension schemes

This chapter examines what type of pension scheme has the lowest operating costs. We first analyse the operating costs of Dutch pension funds, broken down by administrative and investment costs. Various cost-influencing factors are identified, including scale, pension fund type, plan type, outsourcing and reinsurance. Economies of scale are shown to be dominant in explaining differences in costs across pension schemes, leading to the conclusion that the consolidation of small pension funds could improve cost efficiency. In addition, the costs per participant of mandatory industry-wide pension funds turn out to be significantly lower than those of company pension funds. Next, the costs of pension schemes offered by pension funds and life insurers in the Netherlands are compared in an effort to distinguish between collective and private schemes. We find that the operating costs per participant of collective pension funds are many times lower than those of private schemes.

What factors increase the risk of incurring high market impact costs

This article applies quantile regression to assess the factors that influence the risk of incurring high trading costs. Using data on the equity trades of the worlds second largest pension fund in the first quarter of 2002, we show that trade timing, momentum, volatility and the type of broker intermediation are the major determinants of the risk of incurring high trading costs. Such risk is increased substantially by either high or low momentum and by strong volatility. Moreover, agency trades are substantially more risky in terms of trading costs than similar principal trades. Finally, we show that the quantile regression model succeeds well in forecasting future trading costs.